Fox News poll: Hypothetical 2016 presidential matchups (for junkies only)
By Dana Blanton
Published July 28, 2014
Heads up: this article is about the 2016 presidential race and includes hypothetical head-to-head matchups among unannounced candidates. Some politicos sneer that it’s a waste of time to ask these questions this early and the results are completely worthless. If you’re still reading, you’re an insatiable junkie who doesn’t care what others think. Enjoy your fix.
The race for the GOP nomination remains splintered, although Texas Gov. Rick Perry has made noticeable gains after receiving significant news coverage during the current immigration crisis. CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS
Four potential GOP candidates receive double-digit backing among self-identified Republicans: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Gov. Perry each garner 12 percent, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul comes in at 11 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie follows at 10 percent.
Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz each capture nine percent.
The next tier has Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal at four percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at three percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at two percent.
The biggest change is Perry’s jump from five percent in April to 12 percent in the new poll. In addition, Christie’s current 10 percent showing is down from 15 percent in April and 16 percent in December.
There are no surprises on the other side, as former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton remains the clear frontrunner among self-identified Democrats. She captures 64 percent to Vice President Joe Biden’s 12 percent. In April, Clinton was at 69 percent and Biden 14 percent.
No other potential Democratic candidates receive double-digit support.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren comes in at nine percent, up from six percent in April. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo receives five percent and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley one percent.
The poll finds Clinton would top Christie by 10 points, Paul by 11 points and Bush by 13 points, if the 2016 presidential election were held today. Clinton bests Kasich by 19 points.
Among independents, Christie (+4 points) and Paul (+5 points) top Clinton, while she tops Bush by nine and Kasich by 11. The edge in each of these matchups is within the sampling error for the subgroup of independents.
Many were left scratching their heads when Clinton recently said she and former President Bill Clinton were “dead broke” after leaving the White House. Records show she has earned at least $12 million since leaving the State Department and that her speaking fee is at least $200,000.
Even so, by a slim 50-45 percent margin, more voters than not think Clinton is “in touch” with everyday Americans.
Most Democrats (78 percent) say she’s in touch, while most Republicans (74 percent) and a majority of independents (58 percent) say out of touch.
There’s a gender gap, as women (55 percent) think Clinton is in touch, but just over half of men say out of touch (51 percent).
Voters under age 45 (53 percent) and those in households earning less than $50,000 a year (55 percent) believe the former first lady is in touch with everyday Americans. Views are divided among voters ages 45+ (47 in touch vs. 47 out of touch) and those in higher income households (47-49).
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,057 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from July 20-22, 2014. The full poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.