Democrats Are Running Out of States to Flip

[jmyrlefuller]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/against-the-grain/democrats-are-running-out-of-states-to-flip-20140708

by Josh Kraushaar
July 8, 2014

In assessing the future of politics, former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe offered an eye-catching prediction in The Wall Street Journal's op-ed page Monday: The Republican strongholds of Arizona, Georgia, and, yes, Texas, are poised to become swing states over the next couple of decades. His projection shouldn't be too surprising: When looking at the booming minority growth across the country, it's easy to see how the political composition of certain states can change dramatically, even in once-partisan strongholds.

But it's also worth taking a closer look at what's currently happening in those three states, through the prism of the races taking place there this year. If anything, recent elections suggest that the states aren't turning more favorable for Democrats, but instead are becoming more racially polarized. Mitt Romney improved his performance over John McCain in all three states from 2008 to 2012, even in McCain's home state. Since Obama's election in 2008, Republicans won every gubernatorial and Senate race in the trifecta, with a perfect 9-0 record. White voters in these diversifying Southern states are becoming overwhelmingly Republican, while Hispanic turnout continues to lag well behind their racial counterparts.

By the time Texas has enough registered Hispanic voters to make a political difference, it's possible that many second-generation Latinos will be assimilated and less reliably Democratic than their parents. Already, researchers are finding that a sizable number of Hispanics later self-identify as white, dampening the trajectory of steady Hispanic growth into the future.

(excerpt)

[GourmetDan]

He's a 'white Hispanic'...

[Fishrrman]

From the article:
[[ White voters in these diversifying Southern states are becoming overwhelmingly Republican, while Hispanic turnout continues to lag well behind their racial counterparts. ]]

I've been posting about this here for some time.

If there is any future for the Republican party, is it with -white- voters, and not with Hispanics or other "minorities".

This why the southern states remain under Republican control -- because even though the black populations of those states are higher than anywhere else in the United States, whites retain control by adopting "identity politics". That is to say, they are aware that if they don't "vote white (i.e., vote Republican), they will lose control of their states to the blacks/democrats. Hence, we see Republicans winning in the deep south with 70% or more of "the white vote".

For every Hispanic that casts a Republican vote, there are two or three more who will vote for the democrats. There is nothing complicated about this to understand. The greater the Hispanic portion of the population, the more "tipped" a state will be towards the democrats and the left. This isn't going to change, any more than "the black vote" is going to change (even though the democrats will soon throw blacks under the bus in favor of pandering to Hispanics).

This is also why there can never be "amnesty" of ANY kind. ANY move to "normalize" the population of illegals in this country will eventually lead to citizenship and THE VOTE.

Keeping them illegal and "in limbo" assures that even if their population grows, they will not quickly gain voting power as a constituency (I realize that their American-born children -will- automatically become voters some twenty years down the line).

Call this "voter suppression" if you wish.
It is all that stands between some states still being competitive for Republicans, and having those same states tip completely over "to the blue" prematurely.

[Oceander]

racism raises its ugly head.  maybe hispanics and other non-whites don't vote republican because too many republicans have been way too successful in convincing the world that the GOP is for whites only.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

racism raises its ugly head.  maybe hispanics and other non-whites don't vote republican because too many republicans have been way too successful in convincing the world that the GOP is for whites only.

This was a good article.  I liked this paragraph best

In Arizona, where immigration has played a central role in the state's politics, racial polarization has become more pronounced during Obama's presidency. In 2008, with immigration-reform supporter McCain as the GOP nominee, there was only an 18-point gap between his performance among whites (59 percent) and Hispanics (41 percent). In 2010, with McCain touting his border-security bonafides as he ran for reelection to the Senate, that margin grew to 25 points. Meanwhile, Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed one of the most restrictive immigration laws in the country that year, won 61 percent of white voters and just 28 percent of Latinos. By the 2012 presidential election, there was a 41-point gulf between Mitt Romney's standing with whites and Hispanics.

Kinda puts to rest the notion that legal immigrants love the "security first" approach to immigration reform IMO.

Here is what Dubya says “Family values don’t stop at the Rio Grande and a hungry mother is going to try to feed her child.”

Here is why I love Rand Paul so much.

GOP Taps Rand Paul To Open Minority Outreach Office
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/22/rand-paul-minority-outreach_n_4319239.html


www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLVWwE1P5pg

The Republican Party must embrace more legal immigration.

Unfortunately, like many of the major debates in Washington, immigration has become a stalemate-where both sides are imprisoned by their own rhetoric or attachment to sacred cows that prevent the possibility of a balanced solution.

Immigration Reform will not occur until Conservative Republicans, like myself, become part of the solution.  I am here today to begin that conversation.

Let’s start that conversation by acknowledging we aren’t going to deport 12 million illegal immigrants.

If you wish to work, if you wish to live and work in America, then we will find a place for you. - Rand Paul last year at the Hispanic Chamber of Congress

[olde north church]

This was a good article.  I liked this paragraph bestKinda puts to rest the notion that legal immigrants love the "security first" approach to immigration reform IMO.

Here is what Dubya says “Family values don’t stop at the Rio Grande and a hungry mother is going to try to feed her child.”

Here is why I love Rand Paul so much.

GOP Taps Rand Paul To Open Minority Outreach Office
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/22/rand-paul-minority-outreach_n_4319239.html


www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLVWwE1P5pg

How remarkable would it have been had Rand said, "Let's start this conversation by saying 'We aren't going to force 280 MILLION AMERICANS to change their health insurance.'"?

[DCPatriot]

How remarkable would it have been had Rand said, "Let's start this conversation by saying 'We aren't going to force 280 MILLION AMERICANS to change their health insurance.'"?