According to this Marine, we are already in Stage 3 of the coming Islamic Caliphate…not that most people in the West seem to care
What say you?
Blackfive (h/t Steve D) No, we are not seeing the redrawing of lines in the Middle East. We are seeing the erasing of lines in the Middle East. There is only one line that matters to the islamists and that is the line that separates Dar ul Islam (land of islam) and Dar ul Harb (land of war). Right now in Iraq and Syria, we are seeing the new Dar ul Islam bloom, in the heart of the original caliphate, and it will bloom quickly.
While Baghdad prepares a token defense, Iran prepares to insert military support to the embattled Shia government, the truth is the sheer brutality, and ruthless efficiency of ISIS will quickly overwhelm, as the Shia run for their lives and the Sunni will surrender and pledge allegiance to their new masters, and the new Caliphate. Once Baghdad falls, the rest of the house of cards that is the middle east will fall in short order. If the combat trained and experienced Iraqi military, with our weapons and modern training cannot stand to the fury that is the jihad, who do we honestly suppose would?
So who does that leave? Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain or the Emirates? None of them have the fortitude to stand up, the Royals will run and the islamists will assume control. That would leave 3 holdouts, Egypt, Damascus and Israel. Safe to assume, the Egyptian military will put up some token resistance, but the reality is, they are fully infiltrated by islamists and the muslim brotherhood. Gen al Sisi’s brief victory will be that indeed. (BNI disagrees with this assessment of Sisi) The growing jihad will cause Assad to flee with his Iranian peers, and Israel will very soon find itself surrounded as Dar ul Islam prepares to commit the final purge, pushing the Jews into the sea. (Except for the fact that Israel can and will use its nuclear option if push comes to shove)
We have seen this happen before. We just failed to appreciate the history of islam. The only difference between the 7th Century and the 21st Century is that warfighting capability and transportation are greatly improved. While we may not understand what is happening, the key leaders in the muslim brotherhood, al Qaeda, Turkey and ISIS do and are driving the war as they have envisioned it.
Ayman al Zawahiri wrote to the Iraqi’s frequently before and during and I would suppose after the US invasion and campaign. The theme was to hold on and hold out, that the US was a paper tiger and would cut and run. He said the same to the Afghani’s but there is a difference. Afghanistan is not Arab.
The attention placed on Iraq, even before 9/11 should have lit every analyst’s emergency button, but it did not, the letters lay untouched in the Library of Congress. Only communications from bin Ladin and Zawahiri directed at the audiences in the West were translated by Raymond Ibrahim. Critical to understanding the nature of the war was to understand the enemy, which we have failed to do, over and over and over again. Know the enemy as you know yourself.
Defeat the Soviet Union (communism). That may have been an add-on as a claim for the spoils of victory for the mujahedeen in Afghanistan, but the Soviet Empire finally collapsed at the end of operations in Afghanistan. Whether we in the West claim the victory as we do, or our one time mujahedeen partners, the Soviet Union collapsed in spectacular fashion.
Defeat the West. With our surrender of Iraq and our impending surrender in Afghanistan, the jihadists are considering the completion of stage two and it was a success. As nations who rely on what we consider to be high intellect and our morality, we felt that we own the high ground. Our support to islamist causes, whether it be humanitarian or disaster relief in Indonesia, Somalia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Iran, or support to islamist combat operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Syria, we have deluded ourselves to thinking that we have bought favor and potential alliances. I think the answer should be clear, is no. We have not.
Rather in a stunning and brutally symbolic display, our hand of friendship to the muslim brotherhood was sliced off on 9/11/12 in Benghazi. No response from the West was the final signal, that our white flag was unfurled from dawn to setting sun. To fully ratify this compact with evil, hell we gave them 5 of their key players back, guys who have a list of atrocities so grotesque decorum prevents their listing here. What did we receive? A deserting lunatic, who thought he could change the world with a smile.
This is where we are now. The caliphate. 10,000 odd fighters from Syria and western Iraq rolling unopposed into Baghdad, collecting new and slightly used combat equipment to include rifles (only dropped once) armor, artillery and aviation assets. Sunni’s and Shia’s alike are deserting en masse from the conquering horde. Sunni’s who supported OIF are being beheaded alongside their Shia counterparts, other Sunni’s are shedding their uniforms and joining the ranks of ISIS.
Will Baghdad stand, no, not for long. We have yet to fully see the bloodshed that will occur as the army of the jihad descends on the metropolis, and those who are unfortunately unable to escape will be killed in the most grisly extermination of humanity we will have ever seen, and yes, it will be seen.
Southern Iraq will empty like a grade school on the last day of school, moving to sanctuary in Iran. With the home of the caliphate secured, the entirety of the middle east will fall into submission. The lines will be erased, the Arab empire will stand in its place with a very large collection of military gear that we and our Soviet antagonists have bequeathed over decades as we fought for influence in that important region. Israel will be in the fight for their lives.