Author Topic: Poll: Charlie Rangel Leads Adriano Espaillat by Whopping 13 Points… because of one demographic  (Read 434 times)

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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http://observer.com/2014/06/charles-rangel-leads-adriano-espaillat-by-whopping-13-points/#ixzz35AwM5oM3

by Will Brederman
June 19, 2014

A NY1/Siena College poll showed tonight that Congressman Charlie Rangel is crushing his primary challenger, State Senator Adriano Espaillat, with just five days left in the race.

The poll showed Mr. Rangel with a 13-point lead among voters in the upper Manhattan and Bronx district where he has reigned since 1971, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. Mr. Rangel beat back a challenge from Mr. Espaillat in 2012 by just 2.6 points, or a little more than 1,000 votes.

The survey, which asked 707 likely voters over the phone who they would vote for, found that Mr. Rangel enjoys a 70-point lead among black voters–trumping Espaillat’s 24-point lead with Hispanics–and widening the spread slightly from last month. Espaillat also enjoys an edge with voters under the age 50 and among Catholics, but not enough to give him the advantage in the race.
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Offline PzLdr

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And this is one of those voting blocs we're supposed to reach out to?
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Offline Chieftain

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And this is one of those voting blocs we're supposed to reach out to?

I think we should reach out and touch these folks in a meaningful way.  I think the Bronx would be a great place to dock the USS New Yawk, and conduct a public trial of that Libyan scum right there onboard the ship.  Charlie Rangle has no problem shutting down Gitmo, or supporting the complete lack of leadership anywhere in the world, so I think his long record qualifies Charlie for the single honor of trying a terrorist common criminal right there in his District.

You're welcome, Congressman.

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Offline Oceander

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And this is one of those voting blocs we're supposed to reach out to?

If "we" don't they'll always vote against us.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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If "we" don't they'll always vote against us.
It seems "they" are deadset voting against "us" either way. They won't even vote for a Democrat who isn't one of them.
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Offline Oceander

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It seems "they" are deadset voting against "us" either way. They won't even vote for a Democrat who isn't one of them.


Considering that "they" are constantly denigrated by "us" (double entendre intended) and that other than a few here and there most GOP'ers never set foot in one of "their" neighborhoods unless it's to decry crime and welfare cheats, why on Earth would "they" have any real interest in voting for "us"?  Thomas Sowell and Marcus Lloyd are ample proof that "they" are not congenitally incapable of understanding the values "us" claim to support (tho' often that support is in name only) provided that those values are explained in a way that points out how those values align with their own self interest.

The contrary would actually hold a drop of water or two if there had been a strong, long-term course of active campaigning by all manner of republicans in black neighborhoods that had yielded no success whatsoever.  Since that necessary premise is missing, the conclusion drawn cannot stand.

Offline PzLdr

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I think we should reach out and touch these folks in a meaningful way.  I think the Bronx would be a great place to dock the USS New Yawk, and conduct a public trial of that Libyan scum right there onboard the ship.  Charlie Rangle has no problem shutting down Gitmo, or supporting the complete lack of leadership anywhere in the world, so I think his long record qualifies Charlie for the single honor of trying a terrorist common criminal right there in his District.

You're welcome, Congressman.

Problem is, statistically, a Bronx jury would walk him.

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Thomas Sowell and Marcus Lloyd are ample proof that "they" are not congenitally incapable of understanding the values "us" claim to support (tho' often that support is in name only) provided that those values are explained in a way that points out how those values align with their own self interest.
Have you ever looked at racial voting patterns?

You go into a white district and you get 55-45.

A Hispanic district, 65-35.

Asian districts aren't really predictable yet since there aren't really all that many to draw on.

But a black district almost always goes at least 85-15 to the incumbent black Democrat, no matter how corrupt or incompetent they may be (and we all know Rangel's issues). I have seen it time and time again, and you're seeing the phenomenon clearly in this race.

Just because you have a Lloyd Marcus or a Sowell among that fifteen doesn't discredit the ironclad stubbornness of the other 85. Heck, look at the Presidential election of '08, where otherwise reliable Republicans voted for Obama. 98%, by some estimates, and that included Bush administration officials!
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Offline Atomic Cow

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Sadly, blacks have become slaves to the Democrat party.  They are right back on the plantation and were put there starting with LBJ and the Great Society/War on Poverty.

There really is nothing Republicans can do to get them to vote anything but Democrat.

A black guy I work with voted for Obama twice and wishes he could run again, simply because of the color of his skin.

I once asked him about 20 or so different political positions and if he supported any of them.  He said yes to only 1.  Obama supported all 20, but it didn't matter.  Obama is 1/4 black, and looks it, so that is enough to get their votes.
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Offline Oceander

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Have you ever looked at racial voting patterns?

You go into a white district and you get 55-45.

A Hispanic district, 65-35.

Asian districts aren't really predictable yet since there aren't really all that many to draw on.

But a black district almost always goes at least 85-15 to the incumbent black Democrat, no matter how corrupt or incompetent they may be (and we all know Rangel's issues). I have seen it time and time again, and you're seeing the phenomenon clearly in this race.

Just because you have a Lloyd Marcus or a Sowell among that fifteen doesn't discredit the ironclad stubbornness of the other 85. Heck, look at the Presidential election of '08, where otherwise reliable Republicans voted for Obama. 98%, by some estimates, and that included Bush administration officials!


There has been so precious little attempts to actually reach black communities on a level of equality, rather than speaking down to them, that all of this willingness to simply write blacks off as being congenitally democrat are suspect.  They represent laziness, habit, and an unwillingness to try and break things down into so-called kitchen-table issues and try to explain to them why, despite the apparent negatives of republican policies, in the long run black communities will be better off.

Black people are not stupid - they're exactly like you and me - but to-date republicans and the GOP haven't done jack-sh*t to show them that the bogey-men created by the democrats are false.

Obviously things aren't going to change overnight, but change has to start someplace and that place ought to be a concerted effort to get the GOP permanently engaged in black communities - republican community activists/organizers - even though the fruits of that labor will be a long time coming.  After all, how the h*ll do you think the democrats did it in the first place, considering that they're the party of the KKK?  It didn't happen overnight.

Offline speekinout

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There's a huge difference between the black welfare classes and the black middle classes. Both groups vote overwhelmingly for dims, but IMO they do so for different reasons. The welfare classes vote because they are enticed to do so by promises of more "goodies" from the gov't. You can promise them anything, and they will believe it. The tactics used to get them to the polls can include things like giving them rides, rewards for voting, or just attention from their "leaders". There's no way the GOP is ever going to get those votes.
The black middle classes are different. Many of them are the ones who were led to the dim party by the civil rights movement. Or the children of ones who were. (A lot of that goes back to the disagreement MLK had with Barry Goldwater, but I digress). Many of those people do know that the dim programs hurt their race more than they help, but they need more persuasion and evidence of that. And they need to see that they are helping other blacks more than they are hurting them by changing allegiances.

Conservatives have to learn to treat the two groups separately. Middle class blacks do not respond well when they are treated the same as the welfare classes. There are some middle and upper middle class black communities, but most of the time when people talk about black communities, they have an image of inner city welfare neighborhoods in mind.

It's not about color; it's about class. Some of the evil rich are also black. We need to stop letting the dims focus on race so much if we want to get black voters to pull the levers for GOPers.

And, yes, I know - the GOP are the people against blacks, women, gays, the poor, and now native Americans…..


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