Author Topic: If the GOP fails to pick up minority votes, Hillary Clinton will stroll into the White House  (Read 468 times)

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomrogan/100275322/if-the-gop-fails-to-pick-up-minority-votes-hillary-clinton-will-stroll-into-the-white-house/


If the GOP fails to pick up minority votes, Hillary Clinton will stroll into the White House

By Tom Rogan US politics Last updated: June 9th, 2014



Hillary Clinton's supporters are mobilising

In baseball, the on-deck circle is the waiting area for the next-in-line batter. It’s here that the batter psyches himself up, analyses the opposing pitcher, and tries to perfect his swing. When a major player is on-deck, the TV cameras swing into action highlighting his every move and building the anticipation. Correspondingly, the on-deck circle allows a player to build a persona.

Enter Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera is one of the best batters in major league baseball. Perhaps the finest of his generation. Even now, at 31, his skill remains undeniable. But Cabrera is aware his supporters always expect more than good hitting. So on May 18, on his way to the deck, Cabrera shook hands with a young fan. His message was clear: I don’t take my reputation for granted. This political instinct has enabled Cabrera to move beyond messy arguments over his drinking and a spell in rehab.

Hillary Clinton is trying to be a political version of Miguel Cabrera.

Like Cabrera, she’s aware of her fervent supporters. The Democratic base adores her – often instinctively (watch this amusing video) – and senior Democrats believe she’s their best bet for a 2016 Presidential victory. Even Democrats once sceptical of Clinton now believe that 2016 is "her turn": that’s she’s earned the right to lead at the highest level. The power of this groundswell is undeniable. Consider President Obama’s recent interview alongside the desperate-to-be-President Joe Biden, in which Obama seemed to offer a tentative endorsement of Hillary Clinton. Biden’s downcast look said it all.

Like Cabrera, Clinton is looking to the history books. In her campaign-style speeches, and alongside Hard Choices, her book due to be published on Tuesday, it’s increasingly obvious that Clinton is making her way to the centre of the presidential on-deck circle.

But her victory is not certain. Clinton remains deeply unpopular with Republicans. Many conservatives have long regarded Clinton as a calculating and hyper-partisan liberal. This belief has found new energy since the September 2012 attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi: expect Clinton’s "what difference does it make" quote to feature heavily in Republican campaign ads. Republicans will try to link Clinton to Obama’s perceived failures.

This looming negativity is Clinton’s version of Cabrera’s prior legal difficulties. And ultimately, they’re why Clinton is releasing Hard Choices: her version of Cabrera's fan cultivation. Like all campaign books, Clinton’s is designed to attract support from across the political spectrum. Read this review from The Washington Post’s Dan Balz, which captures its (calculated) frankness and subtlety.

Appealing to liberals, Clinton apologises for her Iraq vote "…. got it wrong. Plain and simple." She also claims a "shouting match" with the former CIA Director over drone attacks. These passages are not included by accident. Both Iraq and the CIA drone program remain a sore point for many voters who picked Obama during the 2008 Democratic primary and are now disillusioned with him. Clinton is trying to bring them into her camp.

Appealing to centrists, Clinton presents herself as a caring, self-deprecating servant of the public interest. Someone aware of the responsibility of power. Someone aware of previous image problems.

Appealing to Republican-leaning foreign policy realists, Clinton distances herself from idealism over the Egyptian revolution and the President’s difficult relationship with Israel (always a priority for Presidential candidates). More amusingly, Clinton also tries to separate herself from the failure of the US-Russia diplomatic "reset" (which she led), while claiming credit for the Iraq surge (which she opposed).

In short, Clinton is trying to get ahead of her critics, reset ambivalent-negative perceptions of her tenure as Secretary of State, and gain national security credibility. Put another way, she’s running for President.

Regardless, Clinton will be hard to beat. Praised by a number of key figures in the bi-partisan national security establishment – including former Defence Secretary Robert Gates, and former Afghanistan and US Special Forces commander Stan McChrystal – Clinton 2016 will have a stronger national security message than in 2008 (remember Clinton’s Bosnia sniper fire claims?). Moreover, with the support of her husband and President Obama, Clinton in 2016 will raise a great deal of money.

Therefore, in order to beat her, Republicans will have to do three things. First, they’ll have to nominate a candidate who can appeal to both conservatives and independents. Second, they'll have to use the primary process to shape an inclusive message and avoid the internecine warfare that shredded the Republican brand in 2012. Third, they’ll have to link Clinton to growing public discontent with the Obama administration’s agenda. Most specifically on Obamacare and the economy.

As I’ve argued before, Republicans will make a terrible mistake if they win control of Congress in November’s midterm elections (increasingly likely) but then assume that victory will usher them into the White House. If Republicans fail to garner support from minority and unmarried voters, Mrs Clinton will stroll to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in 2016.

Still, as with Cabrera, Hillary Clinton’s path to the front pages of history is not assured. If Republicans can offer a compelling and inclusive alternative, Clinton's Wikipedia page may conclude with "Secretary of State". Just don't count on it.

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Offline Chieftain

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Ain't gonna happen.  Obama's black base is not going to come out en masse to vote for an old cracker white lady, and without them she cannot win the election.

« Last Edit: June 09, 2014, 10:48:27 AM by Chieftain »

Offline GourmetDan

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Ain't gonna happen.  Obama's black base is not going to come out en masse to vote for an old cracker white lady, and without them she cannot win the election.

Don't forget, they don't have to 'come out' to vote for Hellary.

Get ready for 8 more years of destroying America...




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Offline evadR²

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Well, if we a VFF (Virulent Fraud Factor), it won't matter who comes out.
November 6, 2012, a day in infamy...the death of a republic as we know it.

Offline GourmetDan

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Well, if we a VFF (Virulent Fraud Factor), it won't matter who comes out.

I think that's been the case for several elections now...


"The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left." - Ecclesiastes 10:2

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Offline Fishrrman

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Title:
[[ If the GOP fails to pick up minority votes, Hillary Clinton will stroll into the White House ]]

Simply nonsense, all the more so coming from a British publication.

My retort to Mr. Rogan (author of the article):
"How's UKIP doing, and how many minority votes are they drawing?"

You cannot move conservatism forward by distorting its values to something other than what conservatism -IS-.

"Conservatism" is a political philosophy that simply doesn't appeal to whatever "the minorities" seem to want or value. The only way you are going to gain the votes of minorities is to change the Republican party into "democratic lite". And even then, why vote for a bad imitation of the democrats, when you can vote for the real thing and get more free stuff instead?

Prediction:
For every "minority vote" the G.O.P. panders to by abandoning its tradtional values and message, it will LOSE one or more (probably more) votes from it's "Euro base".
« Last Edit: June 09, 2014, 08:36:22 PM by Fishrrman »

Offline evadR²

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November 6, 2012, a day in infamy...the death of a republic as we know it.

Offline Oceander

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Title:
[[ If the GOP fails to pick up minority votes, Hillary Clinton will stroll into the White House ]]

Simply nonsense, all the more so coming from a British publication.

My retort to Mr. Rogan (author of the article):
"How's UKIP doing, and how many minority votes are they drawing?"

You cannot move conservatism forward by distorting its values to something other than what conservatism -IS-.

"Conservatism" is a political philosophy that simply doesn't appeal to whatever "the minorities" seem to want or value. The only way you are going to gain the votes of minorities is to change the Republican party into "democratic lite". And even then, why vote for a bad imitation of the democrats, when you can vote for the real thing and get more free stuff instead?

Prediction:
For every "minority vote" the G.O.P. panders to by abandoning its tradtional values and message, it will LOSE one or more (probably more) votes from it's "Euro base".


Rand Paul's success makes rather short work of your position.

The conservative political philosophy would appeal to a lot of "minorities" if only conservatives would explain it to them in plain English, if conservatives would start explaining what they're for rather than just railing about what they're against, and if conservatives would get over their hang-ups about people whose ancestors weren't all of western european extraction and start treating "minorities" as intelligent people who can be persuaded if they're given a clear statement of principles and of what's in it for them - and there is a whole lot of good stuff in conservatism for "minorities" that, so far, conservatives have done a damn good job of hiding from them.

« Last Edit: June 09, 2014, 10:27:01 PM by Oceander »

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My retort to Mr. Rogan (author of the article):
"How's UKIP doing, and how many minority votes are they drawing?"

Not terribly well, to be honest. They did well on the local level, in areas seeing an influx of legal (EU) immigrants who work faster and cheaper than the locals. They did well in the MEP elections, since the UK has never trusted the EU in the first place, and the original vote to join the Common Market in '67 was quite badly tainted.

They do not have a single MP in parliament. That is not an example of a party going places.

As to minority votes - better define them on criteria other than skin color. Plenty of people of Indian, Pakistani and Caribbean descent voted for them. They are not minorities. They are fully integrated into the language, culture and history here.
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Offline evadR²

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Okie dokie, let's call them "sectors".
While conservatives probably have not marketed their product as well as they could, it's hard to to appeal to a "sector" that favors/expects/demands limitless freebies.
And it's hard to compete with a government "sector" that's willing to give away the store just to get votes.
November 6, 2012, a day in infamy...the death of a republic as we know it.

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I think that we can win. You just have to tailor the message to the population. For example, California is a "blue" state so we tailor the message to that state. Every state is different. We need to recognize that an all size fit all will not work. What works in Texas will not work in California. What we should do is start working on the youth voters. We can depend on the older voters, but not enough has been done to get the youth vote.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2014, 12:19:27 AM by Trigger »

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I think that we can win. You just have to tailor the message to the population. For example, California is a "blue" state so we tailor the message to that state. Every state is different. We need to recognize that an all size fit all will not work. What works in Texas will not work in California. What we should do is start working on the youth voters. We can depend on the older voters, but not enough has been done to get the youth vote.

A good example of a Republican winning a very Democratic city is Richard Riordan. Riordan ran as a conservative for Los Angeles 20 years ago and he cleaned out the city. He bulldozed the buildings that were causing the crime in the city and he also built the Staples Center as the central hub of the city. He trounced on the liberal Mike Woo in the election. Now you can eat at "The Pantry" on the West side and Downtown LA. Its a little restaurant that he owns. Its always full.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2014, 01:01:35 AM by Trigger »

Offline Oceander

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Okie dokie, let's call them "sectors".
While conservatives probably have not marketed their product as well as they could, it's hard to to appeal to a "sector" that favors/expects/demands limitless freebies.
And it's hard to compete with a government "sector" that's willing to give away the store just to get votes.


What you're effectively saying is that conservative philosophy has no appeal or persuasive power, that it's impotent and inert - one is either born with it, or one will never get it - which essentially means that it's a nullity, that it'll die with the present generation.  If that's the case, then all the more reason to push conservatives and conservativism to the side and move on with something that will have some lasting, persuasive power.

Furthermore, if the lure of "freebies" is irresistible, then why are any of us still going on about the vices and practical impossibility of "freebies"?  Unless we're some sort of superhumans (I, for one am most certainly not), we should all have fallen prey to the siren call of "freebies."  But we haven't, which suggests that the lure of "freebies" is not as all-powerful as you suggest.  That further suggests that there is every reason to believe that an appeal to "minorities" that lays out conservative philosophy in plain English could very well persuade them of the superior benefits of said philosophy over the false seduction of "freebies" offered by progressives.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2014, 12:39:46 AM by Oceander »

Offline Once-Ler

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You cannot move conservatism forward by distorting its values to something other than what conservatism -IS-.
Quote

Do you think the purity of the "defund Obamacare" shutdown moved conservatism forward?   

Quote
"Conservatism" is a political philosophy that simply doesn't appeal to whatever "the minorities" seem to want or value. The only way you are going to gain the votes of minorities is to change the Republican party into "democratic lite". And even then, why vote for a bad imitation of the democrats, when you can vote for the real thing and get more free stuff instead?

Conservatism, as it is defined today by talk radio, is not popular with a majority of voters.  It is wildly popular with a shrinking subset of the GOP. A defeatist attitude about winning the hearts and minds of minorities sounds...

Reaganesque...

No.  Not Reaganesque...that's not it...

Racist?...Nope.  Don't want to go there, but don't think the liberals won't...

Suicidal?...considering the changing American demographics.

That was it.

I guess conservatives better start making babies if they have no intention of attracting non-traditional voters, or start loving rat laws.
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Offline evadR²

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What you're effectively saying is that conservative philosophy has no appeal or persuasive power, that it's impotent and inert - one is either born with it, or one will never get it - which essentially means that it's a nullity, that it'll die with the present generation.  If that's the case, then all the more reason to push conservatives and conservatism to the side and move on with something that will have some lasting, persuasive power.

To certain sectors, that is absolutely true.

Furthermore, if the lure of "freebies" is irresistible, then why are any of us still going on about the vices and practical impossibility of "freebies"? 

That answer is easier. It's because not everyone is a member of those sectors that are all doped up on freebies.

Unless we're some sort of superhumans (I, for one am most certainly not), we should all have fallen prey to the siren call of "freebies."  But we haven't, which suggests that the lure of "freebies" is not as all-powerful as you suggest. 

As the overall population is dumbed down further and further, the drug effect of freebie-ism becomes more and more prevalent and powerful.

....there is every reason to believe that an appeal to "minorities" that lays out conservative philosophy in plain English could very well persuade them of the superior benefits of said philosophy over the false seduction of "freebies" offered by progressives.

Over a period of time that may be correct but, not by 2016.  You can start now but doubtful it will have any effect on certain freebie drugged sectors.
November 6, 2012, a day in infamy...the death of a republic as we know it.


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