Not long ago, Nate Silver was disfellowshipped from The Church of Leftist Orthodoxy for having made the (heretical!) observation that Republicans have a 60 percent chance of retaking control of the Senate in November.
The New York Times
, however, now has a slightly different perspective: It gives the GOP just a 49 percent chance of winning back control of the Senate, with Democrats having a 51 percent chance of retaining control.
It all comes down to eight competitive races, according to the NYT
; and one of these races can probably be given to the Democrat (Colorado), on which the race has a 70 percent chance of going blue, according to the survey. On the other hand, two other races can probably be given to the Republican candidates (a 74 percent chance in Georgia and an 82 percent chance in Kentucky, according to the survey). This leaves the five tossup states of Arkansas, Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, and Louisiana. And a pickup of just five seats--even if the GOP were to sweep these races--would not be quite enough. However, the GOP stands excellent chances of making gains in the open seats (being vacated by incumbent Democrats) in South Dakota and West Virginia; albeit less of a chance in Iowa.
Anyway, here is a link to the article: Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ? NYTimes.com