Author Topic: Carville: If the GOP loses to Hillary in 2016, the Republican Party as we know it is finished  (Read 292 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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http://hotair.com/archives/2014/04/14/carville-if-the-gop-loses-to-hillary-in-2016-the-republican-party-as-we-know-it-is-finished/

Carville: If the GOP loses to Hillary in 2016, the Republican Party as we know it is finished
posted at 4:01 pm on April 14, 2014 by Allahpundit

Via RCP, the key words are “as we know it.” The obvious rebuttal is that the Democratic Party “as we know it” didn’t go extinct in 1988 when it lost its third election in a row. It nominated a southern candidate in 1992 who tacked towards the center and ended up holding the White House for the rest of the decade. But Democrats then weren’t in the position that the GOP’s in now. There was no significant third-party movement-in-waiting on the left like there is on the right with the tea party. How many presidential losses will it take to cause a rupture?

Let’s say we nominate another establishment favorite; Jeb is the likeliest bet, but if he doesn’t run, it could be that the donor class lines up behind Christie and buys him the nomination. Imagine he loses to Hillary. Losing three presidential elections in a row with three candidates disdained by the GOP base guarantees some sort of shake-up for 2020. Either conservatives really will start leaving the party in droves or, in order to keep them in the tent, establishmentarians will have to throw them a bone and embrace a more grassroots candidate for the next election. The status quo, where the party perennially puts forth centrists while its core constituency clamors for someone more ideological, couldn’t continue. At a minimum, tea partiers would conclude that if they’re going to have their hearts broken every four years, they might as well do it with their own nominee, whom they respect, than climb aboard the GOP’s train to nowhere.

Now let’s say that tea partiers somehow manage to thwart the establishment this time. Imagine that Jeb falls flat for dynastic reasons, Christie flames out because of Bridgegate, and Rubio can’t get traction as a last-ditch back-up establishment choice. Ted Cruz stuns the world in Iowa and New Hampshire and wins the nomination — and then he loses to Hillary. Where does the party go from there? The base’s longstanding thesis, that the GOP would surely recapture the White House if it put forth a loud-and-proud “true conservative” as nominee, would be shattered. But centrists, having lost with McCain and Romney, wouldn’t be in a position to capitalize. I don’t know what happens to at that point (although grassroots righties would probably blame the RINOs for stabbing Cruz in the back and demand a do-over with another right-wing candidate next time), but the pressure on both sides to find a winning alternative in 2020 would be immense. Neither party has won four elections in a row in the age of presidential term limits. The idea that the GOP would change fundamentally somehow in order to prevent it isn’t entirely out of left field.

The X factor here is if it nominates Rand Paul in 2016 and he ends up losing. I can see both sides treating that as an aberration — establishmentarians would cite it as a lesson of what happens when you nominate someone beloved by the base and tea partiers would claim that Paul wasn’t a true conservative but rather a quirky libertarian whose eccentricities ultimately tripped him up. That would, in theory, reset the whole game for 2020, with centrists insisting that only a pro-amnesty hawk will play in the purple states and grassroots righties insisting that they still haven’t had a chance to see how one of their own, like Cruz or Palin, would fare as nominee. In that one (and only one) weird sense, Rand Paul is the guy most likely to preserve the Republican “status quo” until the end of the decade.

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Offline WAYNE

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   Very true butt we need both houses NOW or we are done ..

Online Millee

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I would up that and say if Hillary wins the country is finished.   **nononono*

Offline MBB1984

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Carville is pretty much spot on here.  Conservatives have several problems.  Demographically, minority groups  are dramatically increasing and such groups are entrenched in the democrat camp.   They are not leaving no matter how much Paul Ryan and Rubio kiss their derrieres.  More people (especially, but certainly not limited to, minority groups) have a sense that the government owes them something possibly everything.  Even many young white voters are spoiled, pampered and do not want to work to achieve.   Lack of discipline in private lives (pot smoking, other drug use, promiscuous and deviant sexual behavior, abortion, fiscal irresponsibility) seem to be at an all time high.  Personal responsibility is a thing of the past and personal responsibility is a Republican creed.  Political correctness censors the truth at an alarming rate.

Unless dramatic change comes soon, the Republic is doomed.   

Offline Relic

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Carville is pretty much spot on here.  Conservatives have several problems.  Demographically, minority groups  are dramatically increasing and such groups are entrenched in the democrat camp.   They are not leaving no matter how much Paul Ryan and Rubio kiss their derrieres.  More people (especially, but certainly not limited to, minority groups) have a sense that the government owes them something possibly everything.  Even many young white voters are spoiled, pampered and do not want to work to achieve.   Lack of discipline in private lives (pot smoking, other drug use, promiscuous and deviant sexual behavior, abortion, fiscal irresponsibility) seem to be at an all time high.  Personal responsibility is a thing of the past and personal responsibility is a Republican creed.  Political correctness censors the truth at an alarming rate.

Unless dramatic change comes soon, the Republic is doomed.

Very well said, I couldn't agree more. Additionally, I see nothing that will inspire, or lead to dramatic change.


Offline alicewonders

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Carville is pretty much spot on here.  Conservatives have several problems.  Demographically, minority groups  are dramatically increasing and such groups are entrenched in the democrat camp.   They are not leaving no matter how much Paul Ryan and Rubio kiss their derrieres.  More people (especially, but certainly not limited to, minority groups) have a sense that the government owes them something possibly everything.  Even many young white voters are spoiled, pampered and do not want to work to achieve.   Lack of discipline in private lives (pot smoking, other drug use, promiscuous and deviant sexual behavior, abortion, fiscal irresponsibility) seem to be at an all time high.  Personal responsibility is a thing of the past and personal responsibility is a Republican creed.  Political correctness censors the truth at an alarming rate.

Unless dramatic change comes soon, the Republic is doomed.   

Judging from history it will have to get so bad that - people are going to have to be standing in long lines for a loaf of bread, peeking through their curtains when they lead their neighbor away to a "FEMA" camp, lose any control over their children whatsoever, have to wait months to have a lump looked at by a doctor, be ruled by Sharia law, have a tyrant leader that takes over the media and issues executive orders like they were candy...........

People, we're almost there. 
Don't tread on me.   8888madkitty

We told you Trump would win - bigly!

Offline Relic

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Judging from history it will have to get so bad that - people are going to have to be standing in long lines for a loaf of bread, peeking through their curtains when they lead their neighbor away to a "FEMA" camp, lose any control over their children whatsoever, have to wait months to have a lump looked at by a doctor, be ruled by Sharia law, have a tyrant leader that takes over the media and issues executive orders like they were candy...........

People, we're almost there.

The infrastructure is there. The proper people are in the proper places. The populace has been groomed. But, they haven't run out of other people's money yet. That will be the spark in the powder keg. When the mark on this latest spending spree is called in, we'll be there.

Offline Fishrrman

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[[ Carville: If the GOP loses to Hillary in 2016, the Republican Party as we know it is finished ]]

Can't say that I disagree with Mr. Carville at all.
(Note: I wrote this reply BEFORE I read the article above)

Hillary in 2016, then re-elected in 2020.

Illegals amnestied.

Chain migration from Mexico and Central America explodes. ALL of it "legal" from the get-go.

With the realization that anyone can sneak into the U.S.A. and will NEVER be penalized for illegal entry (but only rewarded at some later point in time with amnesty), there will be a wave of illegal immigrants into America that would make Jean Raspail blush. If you don't recognize that name, read the wiki on "Camp of the Saints".

ObamaCare institutionalized beyond any point of repeal.

Foreign policy?  Heh! What difference does it make?

The Pubbie party won't be able to withstand this and continue as is, no way. The GOP-e will try to go on, business-as-usual, graceful losers so long as they get their place at the far end of the table. But conservatives will desert them in droves, making the rise of a "replacement party" possible.

Sure, the Republicans will continue as a "regional party", able to win elections in conservative states with strong majorities. But their time of national influence in America will be over.

The United States will become, at least for a period of time, essentially a "one-party" nation, living under a democratic "reign of terror", until at some point in time the Republicans sink low enough so that a replacement party -- probably comprised almost entirely of Euro-Americans -- gains enough strength to outvote the Pubbies. At that point, we may see at least some Republicans "switch sides" to join the new party, probably running on "dual ballots" the way some candidates already do (example, to be on both the "Conservative" and "Republican" ballot in New York).

If that happens, the GOP-e's will disappear faster than the Whigs...
« Last Edit: April 15, 2014, 09:42:48 PM by Fishrrman »


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