Author Topic: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?  (Read 1440 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline pjohns

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« on: April 09, 2014, 02:20:20 AM »

Offline EC

  • Shanghaied Editor
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 23,836
  • Cats rule. Dogs drool.
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2014, 03:08:33 AM »
He doesn't want all of it. Everything East of the Dnieper plus the Crimea will be fine. Secures the one warm water port the Russian Navy has, the supply lines to the port and a hell of a lot of raw materials.

I doubt a full on military invasion is on the cards - look for increasing unrest and riots in eastern Ukraine, with Russia ready to move in for "humanitarian purposes."
The universe doesn't hate you. Unless your name is Tsutomu Yamaguchi

Avatar courtesy of Oceander

I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2014, 04:30:43 AM »
All the signs are there. If you see troops massing at a border of a neighboring country or moving equipment into an area they are getting to invade. For example, if we see troops massing at the DMZ by the North Koreans they are ready to make a move. Another good example, is when Operation Barbarossa began it started with German troops massing at the Soviet Union border before it invaded. Satellites will be picking up the area humming with Russian activity.

« Last Edit: April 09, 2014, 05:12:01 AM by SPQR »

Offline EC

  • Shanghaied Editor
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 23,836
  • Cats rule. Dogs drool.
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2014, 05:36:40 AM »
I'm not sure.

Putin is a sly sod and trained in "the night side" of operations, if you like. He'll want a something to cloak him, rather than an out and out territory grab. He's ambitious, but far from stupid.
The universe doesn't hate you. Unless your name is Tsutomu Yamaguchi

Avatar courtesy of Oceander

I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2014, 06:00:52 AM »
I'm not sure.

Putin is a sly sod and trained in "the night side" of operations, if you like. He'll want a something to cloak him, rather than an out and out territory grab. He's ambitious, but far from stupid.

When the Russians are putting 300,000 troops total the Southern and Western military districts on the border of the Ukraine something big is going to happen. Every single newspaper on a Google search are coming to the same conclusion. Putin is an extremely smart man who makes his decisions on a calculation.He is betting that Obama will do nothing about it and he will be right. Obama does not have any standing in the international community. He is a weakling. While the Russians are playing chess the Americans are playing with marbles.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2014, 06:18:44 AM by SPQR »

Offline EC

  • Shanghaied Editor
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 23,836
  • Cats rule. Dogs drool.
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2014, 06:20:54 AM »
There is an alternative. Sticking the troops on the East border of the Ukraine puts them a mere 4 hours from Georgia. Just a thought, of course. The loss of Georgia has got to hurt, especially someone who admires Stalin so much.

I do think he'll bide his time. Stir up unrest and riots, then send in the troops to keep the peace. A "grateful" populace will agitate to become a client state. All perfectly legal, no hassle and not exactly something the USA can complain about.
The universe doesn't hate you. Unless your name is Tsutomu Yamaguchi

Avatar courtesy of Oceander

I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2014, 06:23:22 AM »
There is an alternative. Sticking the troops on the East border of the Ukraine puts them a mere 4 hours from Georgia. Just a thought, of course. The loss of Georgia has got to hurt, especially someone who admires Stalin so much.

I do think he'll bide his time. Stir up unrest and riots, then send in the troops to keep the peace. A "grateful" populace will agitate to become a client state. All perfectly legal, no hassle and not exactly something the USA can complain about.

America is war weary. The EU will do nothing as usual. They will release a statement of condemnation and watch. NATO has a pulse but its barely alive.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2014, 06:25:56 AM by SPQR »

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2014, 06:32:09 AM »
America is war weary. The EU will do nothing as usual. They will release a statement of condemnation and watch. NATO has a pulse but its barely alive.

The next few weeks will probably dictate what will be the politics of Europe decades to come.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2014, 06:34:10 AM by SPQR »

Offline EC

  • Shanghaied Editor
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 23,836
  • Cats rule. Dogs drool.
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2014, 11:35:09 AM »
Loki - you may be wrong, but my lord, that is a solid bit of analysis. Thank you!  :beer:
The universe doesn't hate you. Unless your name is Tsutomu Yamaguchi

Avatar courtesy of Oceander

I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

Offline pjohns

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2014, 11:09:13 PM »
All the signs are there. If you see troops massing at a border of a neighboring country or moving equipment into an area they are getting to invade. For example, if we see troops massing at the DMZ by the North Koreans they are ready to make a move. Another good example, is when Operation Barbarossa began it started with German troops massing at the Soviet Union border before it invaded. Satellites will be picking up the area humming with Russian activity.



It is just unfortunate that Ukraine's military is so dilapidated that it poses no credible military threat; and President Obama, when asked by Ukraine for military weapons, responds that he will instead supply its soldiers with MREs. 

If it did have a reasonably serious military, the situation would be analogous to what happened about 65 years ago in that portion of the world:

Shortly after WWII--I think it was in 1949, when forces from the USSR and Hungary had gathered, ominously, along Yugoslavia's northern border--Marshal Tito of Yugoslavia was asked what he might do if Stalin were to invade. His calm, dispassionate response--and I cannot quote it verbatim, so I will not place it within quotation marks--was something like this: Let them do precisely that, if they really do not mind taking back 10,000 soldiers in body bags.

He meant it.
 
And the Soviets knew he meant it.

The Soviets never invaded... 

Offline pjohns

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2014, 11:18:51 PM »
Interesting analysis, Loki.

And you may be entirely correct.  (I guess we will just have to wait and see.  But your assumptions are not at all unrreasonable, it seems to me.)   

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2014, 11:30:15 PM »
It is just unfortunate that Ukraine's military is so dilapidated that it poses no credible military threat; and President Obama, when asked by Ukraine for military weapons, responds that he will instead supply its soldiers with MREs. 

If it did have a reasonably serious military, the situation would be analogous to what happened about 65 years ago in that portion of the world:

Shortly after WWII--I think it was in 1949, when forces from the USSR and Hungary had gathered, ominously, along Yugoslavia's northern border--Marshal Tito of Yugoslavia was asked what he might do if Stalin were to invade. His calm, dispassionate response--and I cannot quote it verbatim, so I will not place it within quotation marks--was something like this: Let them do precisely that, if they really do not mind taking back 10,000 soldiers in body bags.

He meant it.
 
And the Soviets knew he meant it.

The Soviets never invaded...

The reasons why the Soviets never invaded is Tito was getting aid from the Marshall Plan.Stalin's eyes were on Berlin, Turkey and Persia. Stalin eyes after the war amassed troops along the Turkish border to take the Dardanles and the oilfields in Persia.The Yugoslav Army maintained two official defense plans, one against a NATO invasion and one against a Warsaw Pact invasion.Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev, later commented that "Tito was next on Stalin's list, after Korea."
« Last Edit: April 09, 2014, 11:44:58 PM by SPQR »

Offline EC

  • Shanghaied Editor
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 23,836
  • Cats rule. Dogs drool.
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2014, 11:39:18 PM »
Ukraine has two big problems with it's military. They trusted the West to protect them when they gave up their nuke stockpile, and they simply don't have the economy to run maintenance. It really doesn't help that most of the spares they need are produced by Russia, if they are still produced at all.

You remember the Cold War. The USSR had a hell or a throw weight advantage on paper, but only about 1/3 of their planes and tanks were in working condition at any one time, due to bad design and worse maintenance.

It's actually one of the more worrying aspects of what is going on in the US. Support in the military has been cut to the bone (or through the bone in some cases) and that has a massively disproportionate effect on front line capability.
The universe doesn't hate you. Unless your name is Tsutomu Yamaguchi

Avatar courtesy of Oceander

I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2014, 11:48:16 PM »
You want the ultimate authority on the Cold War purchase the Cold War: A; Military History

Edited By Robert Cowley

http://www.amazon.com/The-Cold-War-Military-History/dp/081296716X
« Last Edit: April 09, 2014, 11:59:21 PM by SPQR »

Offline EC

  • Shanghaied Editor
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 23,836
  • Cats rule. Dogs drool.
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2014, 12:00:32 AM »
You want the ultimate authority on the Cold War purchase the Cold War: A; Military History

Edited By Robert Cowley

I shall grab it!  :beer:

Assuming I can get this damned tablet to actually connect. Just bought it, and already think Andoid is an evil monster created by Skynet.
The universe doesn't hate you. Unless your name is Tsutomu Yamaguchi

Avatar courtesy of Oceander

I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2014, 12:02:11 AM »
I shall grab it!  :beer:

Assuming I can get this damned tablet to actually connect. Just bought it, and already think Andoid is an evil monster created by Skynet.



Its mandatory reading at military universities. Everything you want to know about the Cold War is in this book. This book should be read in conjunction with the "Cold War" narrared by Kenneth Branagh  from CNN that you can find on You Tube or for purchase on Amazon.com.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2014, 12:15:13 AM by SPQR »

Offline EC

  • Shanghaied Editor
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 23,836
  • Cats rule. Dogs drool.
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2014, 01:13:19 AM »
It's created by Google which, I think, amounts to the same thing.

I'd not be in the slightest bit surprised. Any company that has "Don't be evil" as it's mission statement is going to raise my eyebrow!
The universe doesn't hate you. Unless your name is Tsutomu Yamaguchi

Avatar courtesy of Oceander

I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

Offline pjohns

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2014, 10:46:45 PM »
Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev, later commented that "Tito was next on Stalin's list, after Korea."

Tito would not have been so easy to defeat.  He was bold and audacious--and utterly determined not to be bullied, whether by his erstwhile friend (who had become his enemy), Joseph Stalin, or by anyone else.

Now, let us be clear:  Tito was not a nice guy.  In fact, he seems almost to have been a cross between Stalin and Hitler; which is certainly no compliment.  (He was a thoroughgoing nationalist--just as Hitler was--yet he somehow merged his nationalism with communism.  In the end, Stalin and Tito were about as different as Lenin and Trotsky had been, a generation earlier.) 

About 1950--when Stalin was attempting to have Tito assassinated--Tito sent a brisk letter to Moscow, reading as follows:

Quote
Stop sending people to kill me. We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle. ...If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send one to Moscow, and I won't have to send a second.

If there is anything at all to be admired about Tito, it is the fact that he was entirely unwilling to succumb to the bullying of others, no matter how powerful they might be. 

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2014, 10:51:27 PM »
« Last Edit: April 11, 2014, 02:20:56 AM by SPQR »

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2014, 11:05:55 PM »
« Last Edit: April 10, 2014, 11:13:13 PM by SPQR »

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2014, 11:18:27 PM »
Another reason why the Soviet Union did not attack the Yugoslavs is because they had a port and could be resupplied the West. and the Russians did not.From a military standpoint, it wouldn't be easy for the Soviets.

Tito was not an angel too. He forced down  a U.S Army Transport plane in 1946

http://home.earthlink.net/~highjack2/shotdown2.htm
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/17985185
« Last Edit: April 11, 2014, 03:26:46 AM by SPQR »

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2014, 07:29:48 PM »
There are no angels in international realpolitik; there are wolves and there are sheep, exemplified by Putin and Obama, respectively.

Good Point

Offline pjohns

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2014, 10:22:21 PM »
Tito was not an angel too.

I have already noted that Tito appeared to be a cross between Stalin and Hitler; and that this is not to be seen as a compliment.

But his refusal to be bullied was his one admirable characteristic, in my opinion. 

SPQR

  • Guest
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2014, 11:52:55 PM »
I have already noted that Tito appeared to be a cross between Stalin and Hitler; and that this is not to be seen as a compliment.



He was neither communist or Nazi, he did offer to help in 1967, Tito offered Czechoslovak leader Alexander Dub?ek to fly to Prague on three hours notice if Dub?ek needed help in facing down the Soviets

Offline pjohns

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 467
Re: Is Putin set to invade the rest of Ukraine?
« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2014, 10:06:34 PM »


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf