Author Topic: The GOP Is at War With Itself. So Why Are Republicans Poised to Win in 2014?  (Read 315 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/04/republican-midterm-civil-war-house-senate

The GOP Is at War With Itself. So Why Are Republicans Poised to Win in 2014?
This year's midterm political paradox, explained.
—By Andy Kroll | Mon Apr. 7, 2014 3:00 AM PDT

Skim the news nowadays and you're bound to encounter two political storylines seemingly at odds with each other. They appear side by side in major news outlets; sometimes even in the same headline. In the first storyline, the Republican Party is at war with itself, divided between establishment and tea party, staring down its own demise as the nation's demographics change and majorities of Americans embrace Democratic positions on gun rights, immigration, marriage equality, and other important issues.

Yet in the second storyline, the GOP is ascendant, poised to grow its majority in the House of Representatives and—more significantly—win back control of the US Senate in the 2014 midterms. Senate Republicans are already planning their majority agenda, divvying up committee chairmanships.

How can this be?

News stories galore have explored one or the other of these narratives, but never reconciled them. Here's how the Republican Party is on the brink of a meltdown…yet on track to retake Congress in November.

Luck of the Draw
The GOP is on pace for major gains in 2014, in part because of luck. Democrats stand little chance of winning back the House. They would need to erase the GOP's 17-seat majority, while successfully defending their own members, including 13 incumbents in toss-up races. (RealClearPolitics rates only three House GOP races as toss-ups, which has at least something to do with Republican gerrymandering of congressional districts at the state level.)

The real action this year is on the Senate side. And looking at the 2014 Senate electoral map, this much is clear: Republicans were dealt a good hand.




continued at link

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Offline Relic

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So this brainiac has decided that since the Democrats have more incumbents, that's a problem?

This guy is a political writer?  :thud:

Offline MBB1984

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Republicans are poised to win simply because most voters are tired of the failed policies and lies of Obama.  People are tired of the lies given in support of Obamacare  People are tired of the foreign policy of Obama.  People are also tired of Obama's lack of leadership.

The GOP is looking good due to the failures of the democrat administration.  At this point, nothing else really matters.  Of course, that will change after the election. 

Offline Relic

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Republicans are poised to win simply because most voters are tired of the failed policies and lies of Obama.  People are tired of the lies given in support of Obamacare  People are tired of the foreign policy of Obama.  People are also tired of Obama's lack of leadership.

The GOP is looking good due to the failures of the democrat administration.  At this point, nothing else really matters.  Of course, that will change after the election.

I find that only those who pay attention are upset with what's going on. And generally, those that pay attention vote conservative/libertarian/Republican.

I think the situation is not that bad for Democrats, and as I've said many times, obamacare has been manipulated and hyped so that it will be an asset for Democrats in November.

The real problem is what happens after November, when obamacare is unleashed? The Democrat plan is clear, but filled with risk. They will implement obamacare, blame failures on Republicans, and begin the serious push for single payer. They will attempt to position Hillary! as the perfect person to either fix obamacare, or help the transition to single payer.

Meanwhile, Republicans will continue to team up with the likes of George Soros in an effort to silence Tea Party types.

Offline speekinout

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So this brainiac has decided that since the Democrats have more incumbents, that's a problem?

This guy is a political writer?  :thud:

You have to apply a little more analysis than that to the map. The dems have more open seats than the GOP does, and they also have to defend some incumbents in conservative leaning states. It looks very good for the GOP if you pay attention to which states might change parties.

Offline Relic

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You have to apply a little more analysis than that to the map. The dems have more open seats than the GOP does, and they also have to defend some incumbents in conservative leaning states. It looks very good for the GOP if you pay attention to which states might change parties.

It's rarely more expensive to defend a seat rather than take it.
Sorry, that's how it is. Incumbents win over 80% of the time. No amount of analysis or spinning changes that.

Offline speekinout

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It's rarely more expensive to defend a seat rather than take it.
Sorry, that's how it is. Incumbents win over 80% of the time. No amount of analysis or spinning changes that.

This is a different case. 6 years ago, some of these dims were elected in the 0bamania. They are in states that tend conservative. Their chances of re-election are slim. There are 6 seats in that category.

And it's only as expensive as the parties want it to be. They all pour money into what they think are key states, and that can be for defense as well as offense.


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