Author Topic: Rick Scott Pulls Ahead as Charlie Crist Continues to Fall  (Read 215 times)

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Offline happyg

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Rick Scott Pulls Ahead as Charlie Crist Continues to Fall
« on: April 07, 2014, 08:02:21 PM »
Allison Nielsen

The tide continues to turn in the Florida governor’s race, as a new poll confirms former Gov. Charlie Crist is losing favor with Florida voters.

Gov. Rick Scott has now surpassed Crist, as the former governor continues his downward slide, according to a poll conducted by the most accurate pollster in the 2010 Florida gubernatorial contest.

Scott leads Crist 45 percent to 44 percent, in a new Voter Survey Service poll, commissioned by Sunshine State News. While Scott’s lead is within the margin of error, the poll reveals the Republican holds an important 5 point lead over Crist among Floridians more likely to cast votes in the November election.

“This race, in my opinion, looks very locked in. In other words, it almost looks like a repeat of what we had in the summer of 2010,” said James Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, who described the Scott versus Alex Sink race as a back and forth ping-pong match in polling.

“I almost get the sense we’re headed toward a similar trajectory,” he added.

The VSS poll comes a little more than a week after a St. Leo poll showed Crist’s once-double-digit lead evaporating.

Although the overall VSS numbers show Scott and Crist neck-and-neck, the poll finds voter turnout is on Scott’s side. Scott leads 49-42 over Crist with respondents who say they have an excellent or good chance of voting in the November election -- numbers outside the margin of error.

The turnout in a year like this very much favors the Republican Party, and that’s a very big difference that cannot be overlooked in the polling,” said Lee, who noted Republicans turned out 6 points to 8 points higher than Democrats in the 2010 election.

“That, to me, is a very important piece of information, because it really does show the enthusiasm gap clearly favors the Republican Party in a nonpresidential year,” said Lee. “It’s very easy for me to make the case that this could be a 3- or 4-point lead for Rick Scott right now, not a 1 point lead.”

According to Lee, the weight of Crist’s support for President Barack Obama’s signature health-care law continues to drag him down. The VSS poll revealed 51 percent of Florida voters would be less likely to cast a ballot for a candidate that supports Obamacare. Only 39 percent of respondents said they would vote for a candidate that supports the law.

“The campaigning that’s happening on the ground ... some of the TV wars have already kicked in,” he told Sunshine State News. “The impact of Obamacare and the linkage of Crist to Obamacare certainly is a very important reason why, in this poll, you see Crist losing ground.”

Scott received 83 percent of Republican votes, while Crist received 80 percent of Democrats. Crist leads among independent voters 40-34. Scott was more popular with male voters -- 46-43 -- while Crist led with women -- 45-44.

Both candidates are known commodities, so Lee says it’s difficult to see either one losing or winning big come November.

“We’re looking at a close race right to the end here,” he said. 

The poll was conducted March 31-April 3 with 800 registered Florida voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.46 percent.



http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-pulls-ahead-charlie-crist-new-poll

Offline speekinout

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Re: Rick Scott Pulls Ahead as Charlie Crist Continues to Fall
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2014, 08:18:49 PM »
I think turn-out favors Scott by a large margin. The dim base in FL is minorities (black and hispanic), snowbirds (some of them not really eligible to vote in the state, but hey…), and the dead. None of those have a real motivation to vote this year. So far there isn't a hot button issue. dims need motivation to turn out; GOPers tend to vote regularly.

Offline RedForemanRules

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Re: Rick Scott Pulls Ahead as Charlie Crist Continues to Fall
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2014, 12:40:57 AM »
I think turn-out favors Scott by a large margin. The dim base in FL is minorities (black and hispanic), snowbirds (some of them not really eligible to vote in the state, but hey…), and the dead. None of those have a real motivation to vote this year. So far there isn't a hot button issue. dims need motivation to turn out; GOPers tend to vote regularly.

     I have to question the sanity of anyone voting for Crist.  He's like a stereotypical sleazy politician straight out of central casting, will say and do literally anything to get elected, he seems to have a lot in common with Obama in that he is much more fascinated with being elected than actually governing. 


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