Midterm 2014: Where Things Stand Now
Presenting the Crystal Ball’s 2014 range of outcomes in Senate, House and gubernatorial races
Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik, Sabato's Crystal Ball April 3rd, 2014
Election Day 2014 is now almost exactly seven months away, which is both near and far.
On the one hand, more than half of the states –29 of 50 — have passed their filing deadlines for major party candidates (the deadline in a 30th, Tennessee, is today). The late entries of Rep. Cory Gardner (R, CO-4) and ex-Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) into, respectively, the Colorado and New Hampshire Senate races are probably the last major candidate announcements we’re going to see this cycle, barring a late retirement or other big surprise. So the playing field is basically set.
On the other hand, the specific players in the game are not set. Just two states — Illinois and Texas — have held their primaries. After the District of Columbia voted on Tuesday, there isn’t another primary until May 6. Candidate selection, particularly for Republicans in places like Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, could be a decisive factor in the battle for the Senate.
So with the caveat that plenty can change, we know enough about the political environment, fundamentals, candidates and other factors that will impact 2014 to offer a new Crystal Ball feature this week: Narrow ranges of what we expect will be the net partisan changes in the makeup of the Senate, House and roster of governors.
We will continually tweak this Crystal Ball Outlook, and readers can find these ranges, along with our ratings, on our House, Senate and governors pages on the Crystal Ball website. As is our custom, we will call every race before Election Day, even the pure toss-ups — recognizing that universal prediction guarantees some mistakes. We also hope to further narrow these ranges in the coming months, but there will be some uncertainty in many contests until the bitter end.
Table 1: Initial 2014 midterm Crystal Ball Outlook