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Offline Oceander

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« on: April 02, 2014, 04:59:05 PM »

Offline Chieftain

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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2014, 05:05:03 PM »
I think Obama's legacy in Libya will be the dissolution of the country as it exists to be divided into at least two or three different autonomous tribal regions.  Iraq is heading down the same path and will probably end up divided into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish tribal areas/countries.

In the end, Obama's legacy throughout the Middle East will be vast destabilization, death and nuclear arms proliferation like has not been seen since the Soviets.  Once that happens a nuclear brush war is almost inevitable.


Offline EC

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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2014, 06:34:41 PM »
I think Obama's legacy in Libya will be the dissolution of the country as it exists to be divided into at least two or three different autonomous tribal regions.  Iraq is heading down the same path and will probably end up divided into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish tribal areas/countries.

In the end, Obama's legacy throughout the Middle East will be vast destabilization, death and nuclear arms proliferation like has not been seen since the Soviets.  Once that happens a nuclear brush war is almost inevitable.

No disagreement on the long term divisions, though I do think you'll find Iraq and the Kurd nations taking rather large bites out of Syria (and in the Kurd case, a substantial chunk of Turkey.

Nuclear brush war though - I am minded of Pakistan and India. Everyone assumed they'd let the nukes fly - they did not. People are generally not that foolish.
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