Author Topic: Nate Silver: GOP 'Slight Favorite' To Take Control Of Senate  (Read 207 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Nate Silver: GOP 'Slight Favorite' To Take Control Of Senate
« on: March 23, 2014, 12:14:09 PM »
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nate-silver-gop-senate

IGOR BOBIC – MARCH 23, 2014, 10:54 AM EDT1723

Nate Silver revealed a new forecast on Sunday via his new venture, FiveThirtyEight.com, projecting that Republicans have about a 60 percent chance of wining at least 6 Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber in November.

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When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.


Silver emphasizes that while his model favors the GOP, the number of seats could vary depending on several factors.

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So our forecast might be thought of as a Republican gain of six seats — plus or minus five. The balance has shifted slightly toward the GOP. But it wouldn’t take much for it to revert to the Democrats, nor for this year to develop into a Republican rout along the lines of 2010.


Watch Silver discuss his projection on ABC's "This Week" at link...

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Offline Relic

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Re: Nate Silver: GOP 'Slight Favorite' To Take Control Of Senate
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2014, 12:50:17 PM »
Silver emphasizes that while his model favors the GOP, the number of seats could vary depending on several factors.

Whew! Good news for the GOP leadership. There's still time to mess it up and keep from having any real responsibility.

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Nate Silver: GOP 'Slight Favorite' To Take Control Of Senate
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2014, 01:10:49 PM »
The Democrats internal polling must really be bad since that has been the source of Silver's "numbers" in the past two elections.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

"The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections." -Lord Acton


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