Author Topic: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove  (Read 597 times)

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GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« on: March 13, 2014, 03:32:50 PM »
http://www.rove.com/articles/519

By Karl Rove
March 13, 2014

GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory
David Jolly's Florida win shows that opposition to ObamaCare alone won't be enough in November.
To Republicans, a word of caution over the special election in Florida's 13th congressional district: Don't uncork the champagne.

David Jolly's victory on Tuesday over Democrat Alex Sink by 48.4%-46.6% is significant. President Obama won the district twice, and its changing political demographics make it Democratic-leaning—despite being held for 42 years by C.W. "Bill" Young, a popular Republican, until his death last fall. Still, special elections don't always dictate how midterms turn out.

There were 10 special congressional elections in the two years leading up to the 2010 midterms: The GOP flipped one Democratic seat, Democrats took away one Republican seat, and the remaining eight seats retained the status quo. In the four special elections held in the two years leading up to the 2006 midterms, both parties retained their seats. Yet Democrats took the House in 2006, and Republicans took it back in 2010's epic sweep.

Tuesday's special election does provide lessons for both parties. For Republicans, it shows ObamaCare is a potent issue that hurts Democrats badly but isn't sufficient by itself. For example, a Feb. 18 poll conducted by independent political groups (including American Crossroads, which I helped organize) in Florida's 13th district found 41% supported ObamaCare while 52% opposed it. Opposition was centered among Republicans: Attacking ObamaCare motivated them more than supporting it energized Democrats. Independents opposed ObamaCare but by a narrower margin.

Democrats mitigated some of ObamaCare's negative effects. Their candidate was not in Congress when ObamaCare passed and so didn't vote for it. Ms. Sink pummeled Mr. Jolly as wanting to "totally repeal ObamaCare instead of working in a bipartisan way to fix it," to cite the language tested by her pollster. She also tried changing the subject by accusing him of wanting to privatize Social Security and gut Medicare.

Mr. Jolly wisely refused to defend the status quo before ObamaCare and emphasized replacing, not just repealing, the deeply flawed program. He met the Social Security and Medicare lies aimed at him head-on, diminishing their impact.

Republicans will see these tactics again this fall. Democrats seem convinced ObamaCare is an opportunity, in the words of Ms. Sink's pollster Geoff Garin, "to play offense, and not just defense," with criticism "at least as potent, if not more potent, than the attacks." However, unlike Ms. Sink, Democratic incumbents voted for ObamaCare and made promises that turned out to be untrue, making them far more vulnerable than she was.

Mr. Jolly put ObamaCare in a larger frame, urging voters to elect someone to be a check and balance for Mr. Obama, rather than blindly support him. This cut well with independents, according to some private polls by outside groups. Mr. Jolly's success depended upon convincing them he would go to Washington to make things work, not to blow it up.

The Republican campaign also understood that Ms. Sink's record mattered. GOP ads pointed out that as president of NationsBank (now Bank of America ) in Florida, she collected $8 million in salary and bonuses while thousands of bank jobs were cut. Ads also noted that as Florida's chief financial officer Ms. Sink approved lucrative contracts with her former bank, and that Florida's pension funds lost billions between 2007 and 2010.

Her record made voters even less likely to support her than did her backing of ObamaCare. Expanding the debate and exploiting multiple, not just a single, vulnerability helped Mr. Jolly win swing voters.

Republicans also substantially erased the Democratic edge in get-out-the-vote. Ms. Sink had Team Obama and its Florida ground game, which delivered a 2,988 edge among the 131,713 voters who cast an early ballot. But Mr. Jolly crushed her by 6,445 of the 52,565 who turned on Election Day. Mr. Jolly, the Republican National Committee and the Florida Republican Party took on the volunteer-intensive portions of the ground game; outside groups took on the expensive, mechanical parts.

One final lesson: While Ms. Sink's campaign outraised Mr. Jolly's 2-to-1 and outspent it 4-to-1 on TV, outside conservative groups evened things up. Democrats ended up spending $6.4 million and Republicans $6.3 million.

Republicans are buoyed by Tuesday's election. But only if they apply its lessons in dozens of other contests for the House and Senate can they turn a good midterm into a great one.

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2014, 03:42:31 PM »
Come on now! Show of hands!

How many didn't know this would be coming?

Offline Gazoo

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2014, 03:43:23 PM »
 11513 10294 :odrama:
"The Tea Party has a right to feel cheated.

When does the Republican Party, put in the majority by the Tea Party, plan to honor its commitment to halt the growth of the Federal monolith and bring the budget back into balance"?

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2014, 03:45:16 PM »
Come on now! Show of hands!

How many didn't know this would be coming?

I can't read what Rove said and could not find the blah blah blah emoticon.
"The Tea Party has a right to feel cheated.

When does the Republican Party, put in the majority by the Tea Party, plan to honor its commitment to halt the growth of the Federal monolith and bring the budget back into balance"?

Offline Gazoo

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2014, 03:50:06 PM »
Quote
One final lesson: While Ms. Sink's campaign outraised Mr. Jolly's 2-to-1 and outspent it 4-to-1 on TV, outside conservative groups evened things up. Democrats ended up spending $6.4 million and Republicans $6.3 million.

Been wanting to ask this all week. Is this Sink's wife?
"The Tea Party has a right to feel cheated.

When does the Republican Party, put in the majority by the Tea Party, plan to honor its commitment to halt the growth of the Federal monolith and bring the budget back into balance"?

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2014, 03:51:40 PM »
Come on now! Show of hands!

How many didn't know this would be coming?
Do you agree or disagree with the substance of his remarks?


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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2014, 03:57:30 PM »
Do you agree or disagree with the substance of his remarks?

What I got out of it was that without the Tea Party's support in $$$ for TV spots, Jolly would have lost.

What I got out of it was that this could have ended up the same way Terry McAuliffe beat Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia governor election...where Rove and the boys withheld funds.

Okay...so I resent Karl Rove a little.  But I do agree with him here.   That election shouldn't have been close.  Winning with less than 50% of the vote has alarm bells going off here.
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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2014, 04:29:49 PM »
Thanks for your comments on the substance of his article.

Another article I read indicated Rove's American Crossroads donated heavily.

Offline katzenjammer

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2014, 06:03:23 PM »
I often don't agree with Karl Rove, his opinions nor his tactics, but he is right on this one.  Yes, I will be clear (and pithy!!), Rove's Right.

A Special Election is different than a mid-term for sure, and each Special Election has its own idiosyncrasies.

He seems to have hit upon the right highlights and lowlights, for this Special Election.

Both Jolly & Sink were flawed candidates in many ways.  On paper, this election was Sink's to lose from the onset.

0bamacare was an issue, but how "big" of an issue is certainly open for debate, and probably will be for some time.

If you sift out all of the other issues, local and national, and set aside their particular quirks and strengths as candidates, focusing in on 0bamacare: Jolly handled it well, in my opinion.  Sink, handled it poorly. 

But not every race in November is going to be run by Alex Sink and David Jolly (with the young, inspiring Libertarian Lucas Overby thrown in the mix!).

While the GOP in DC did cough up $$$ (which were absolutely necessary to avoid the swearing in of Alex Sink today), they certainly did nothing to assuage many of the complaints that many of us have about them, as evidenced in this recent thread: David Jolly Won Despite DC GOP Betrayal

I certainly don't know who the un-named "leakers" were that were the source(s) for the Politico story referenced in the thread above, I'd like to believe that Rove & Crossroads have clean hands on this one.  And yes, Crossroads threw in either $500 or $600 K of advertising (a couple of very well done & timely TV spots), including the Rand Paul robo-call on election eve.  So, hats off to Rove for getting this one right, and making a difference with his Crossroad's contribution.


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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2014, 06:09:36 PM »
What's happened is that Karl Rove guessed wrong.  He thought Jolly as being weak and unorganized.

Now he's trying to make a little lemonade.
"It aint what you don't know that kills you.  It's what you know that aint so!" ...Theodore Sturgeon

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Offline Howie66

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2014, 06:16:48 PM »
What's happened is that Karl Rove guessed wrong.  He thought Jolly as being weak and unorganized.

Now he's trying to make a little lemonade.

Yep.

Rove has had some time to work out a suitable spin.

Just don't look at his actual record. That wouldn't be prudent.
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Offline katzenjammer

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2014, 06:23:49 PM »
What's happened is that Karl Rove guessed wrong.  He thought Jolly as being weak and unorganized.

Now he's trying to make a little lemonade.

While my tendency would be to agree with that, I'm not sure it is the case here.  Like I said above, I don't know who leaked for that Politco story on Friday, if it was Rove, or any of his people, then I eat my words of faint praise for him on this one.  But if we assume that he wasn't part of the Friday hatchet job, then we need to embrace the fact that his Crossroad contribution made a huge difference in this race, and be thankful for it.  And his analysis on the takeaways of the CD13 SE is about the clearest that I've read so far.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 06:25:16 PM by katzenjammer »

Offline sinkspur

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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2014, 06:43:36 PM »
What's happened is that Karl Rove guessed wrong.  He thought Jolly as being weak and unorganized.

Now he's trying to make a little lemonade.

He may very well be weak and unorganized and still manage to win an election.  The fact is, he's going to have a fight on his hands in November.  Hopefully, he's learned his lesson.
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Re: GOP, Beware Of Tuesday's Victory By Karl Rove
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2014, 08:18:31 PM »
What's happened is that Karl Rove guessed wrong.  He thought Jolly as being weak and unorganized.

Now he's trying to make a little lemonade.

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner ladies and gentlemen!


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