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Offline Rapunzel

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« on: March 03, 2014, 04:57:47 PM »

Offline Oceander

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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2014, 11:10:09 PM »
Someone else who is simply misreading Putin.  Putin is certainly taking a risk, a big risk, but it's also a well-calculated risk - so he and Russia may very well end up paying a price - but as the canard goes, nothing ventured, nothing gained.  Also, the author is making the same mistake many have made of treating this as an all-or-nothing proposition for Putin and Russia.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  Georgia was not an all-or-nothing proposition and Russia has now owned two of Georgia's provinces for 5 years.  I've no doubt that Putin intends to eventually pull at least half, if not all, of Ukraine into Russia as a tightly bound satellite, but I also do not doubt that he is thinking and planning on the scale of years, of decades, even, and that he essentially intends to achieve his result the same way that one boils that poor frog:  by slowly, slowly ratcheting up the pressure so that each individual step is not severe enough for the West to be willing to take military action, and so that there is enough temporal distance between each step that the West ignores their cumulative effect and only reacts to each individual step, not to the full flight of stairs.

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