NYT/CBS Poll: Tea Party favorability surges since government shutdown

[Rapunzel]

http://legalinsurrection.com/2014/02/nytcbs-poll-tea-party-favorability-surges-since-government-shutdown/

NYT/CBS Poll: Tea Party favorability surges since government shutdown
 
Posted by William A. Jacobson      Friday, February 28, 2014 at



At this point, I’m used to support for the Tea Party being mischaracterized in news coverage of polling.

The negative always is the focus, and actual analysis of the persistency of support hovering between 1-in-4 and 1-in-5 Americans is ignored:

    Congrats @Gallup for inspiring these 5 misleading anti-Tea Party headlines

    Hidden gem in ABC/WaPo Poll: Strong Tea Party support

    CBS News buries poll result showing Tea Party support rising

With the release of the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, the strength of the Tea Party has been ignored in favor of focus on rifts in the Republican Party and the generic congressional ballot looking better for Republicans.  Those other topics are important and worthy of coverage, but why isn’t the surge in Tea Party favorability since the partial government “shutdown” getting coverage?

Wait, what?!  Favorability of the Tea Party has surged since the partial shut down of some of the government?  Isn’t the narrative supposed to be that the Tea Party is toast?

Here are the internals for the NYT/CBS poll.

Favorability has risen from 14% in late October to 21% currently! Surge! Unfavorability has dropped by 5% too. Overall favorability actually has returned to its historical norm, but that in itself is a story.

An overwhelming majority do not have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, with almost half undecided or not having heard enough.  Most of the unfavorability comes from Democrats:



You could slice and dice this into great headlines reflecting well on the Tea Party in America.  But you won’t see those headlines.

Why the surge in favorablity and decline in unfavorability? Perhaps it’s because the massive media attack on the Tea Party after the “shutdown” was overblown, and the Tea Party was proven correct on so many things, particularly Obamacare.

As to whether the Tea Party has too much influence, the numbers also are postive although not dramatic:



In late October 40% felt the Tea Party had too much influence, that has dropped to 37%.  Combining those who feel the Tea Party does not have enough influence or  has the right amount, the number has gone from 48% to 45%, largely due to the 6%  increase in those who answered Don’t Know or did not answer.  There’s no surge either way here, but a steady reflection that a strong majority of those who answered (45%-37% of total) do not feel that the Tea Party has too much influence.

Those who consider themselves supporters of Tea Party is essentially unchanged.  While a majority are not supporters, the favorabilty ratings demonstrate that lack of “support” does not equate to an unfavorable view:



So despite unprecedented attacks on the Tea Party from the media and the Republican leadership, support for the Tea Party remains steady, and favorability has rebounded dramatically since October.

Does. Not. Fit. The. Narrative.

[Rapunzel]

Tonight on Special Report Charles Krauthammer said "on the five year anniversary of the Tea Party it is as strong as ever and growing stronger."

[mystery-ak]

This can't be....we've been told repeatedly that the TP was done and Cruz caused the shut down and people will punish us this fall....../s

[Rapunzel]

This can't be....we've been told repeatedly that the TP was done and Cruz caused the shut down and people will punish us this fall....../s

Amazing, isn't it! 

[katzenjammer]

I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked!!

[Bigun]

I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked!!

I'm not! Not at all!

The people of this country are BEGGING for some real leadership!

[Oceander]

I'm not! Not at all!

The people of this country are BEGGING for some real leadership!

That they are, and so far none has really shown up yet.

[Carling]

What I'm reading in the numbers is that the Tea Party still hasn't recovered to its pre-shutdown levels.  It took a big hit in the numbers that Rap posted in the aftermath of the shutdown.

[aligncare]

I'm not! Not at all!

The people of this country are BEGGING for some real leadership!

Ain't that the truth. Obama will go down in history as the worst president ever to occupy the office. 2016 can't come soon enough.

[truth_seeker]

What I'm reading in the numbers is that the Tea Party still hasn't recovered to its pre-shutdown levels.  It took a big hit in the numbers that Rap posted in the aftermath of the shutdown.

Independents favorable 21%, not favorable 30%.
 
Now: Overall favorable 21%, not favorable 31%.
Oct. 2010: Overall 24%, not favorable 26%.

Hardly reason for glee. Overall lost ground since Oct. 2010.

[Carling]

Independents favorable 21%, not favorable 30%.
 
Now: Overall favorable 21%, not favorable 31%.
Oct. 2010: Overall 24%, not favorable 26%.

Hardly reason for glee. Overall lost ground since Oct. 2010.

I'm trying to understand the positives.  It's basically 6 months until the elections, and the Tea Party in general still hasn't recovered from the Ted Cruz/Mike Lee publicity stunt.  Cruz is raking in the dough, and has a solid base for the 2016 primaries, but other than that, the movement in general is seen less favorably than before his shutdown.  Sure, there is a recovery in the numbers (it's hard to go much lower than 14%), but as you posted, the favorable rating is lower now than in the 2010 elections, which hardly indicates that the Tea Party movement has gained traction since the last mid-terms.  It's even lower than it was during the 2012 election, and we all know how that worked out.   

[truth_seeker]

I'm trying to understand the positives.  It's basically 6 months until the elections, and the Tea Party in general still hasn't recovered from the Ted Cruz/Mike Lee publicity stunt.  Cruz is raking in the dough, and has a solid base for the 2016 primaries, but other than that, the movement in general is seen less favorably than before his shutdown.  Sure, there is a recovery in the numbers (it's hard to go much lower than 14%), but as you posted, the favorable rating is lower now than in the 2010 elections, which hardly indicates that the Tea Party movement has gained traction since the last mid-terms.  It's even lower than it was during the 2012 election, and we all know how that worked out.   

TP support is narrow, but deep and loud. They talk to each other, and become convinced they are more "favorable" than the public sees them.

See the independent figures. Not good.

[Gazoo]

TP support is narrow, but deep and loud. They talk to each other, and become convinced they are more "favorable" than the public sees them.

See the independent figures. Not good.

Independent figures? The tea party is independents so what independents are they polling? Independent democrats that are displeased with Obama and want Hillary maybe.

[Lipstick on a Hillary]

TP support is narrow, but deep and loud. They talk to each other, and become convinced they are more "favorable" than the public sees them.

See the independent figures. Not good.

See the article's title:

NYT/CBS Poll: Tea Party favorability surges  since government shutdown

Looks good to me, I'll take it.

[katzenjammer]

I'm not! Not at all!

The people of this country are BEGGING for some real leadership!

Pardon me, I left off a "/sarcasm" tag, didn't figure that I needed it!!   

[sinkspur]

TP support is narrow, but deep and loud. They talk to each other, and become convinced they are more "favorable" than the public sees them.

See the independent figures. Not good.

This cycle will pretty much doom the credibility of the Tea Party if these ringers (i.e., Milton Wolf, Dwayne Stovall, Matt Bevin) they've backed in the primaries go down to defeat as it appears they will.

[Gazoo]

See the article's title:

NYT/CBS Poll: Tea Party favorability surges  since government shutdown

Looks good to me, I'll take it.

Some are so hate filled of the tea party because they are such diehard GOPers or leftists they are failing to see the overall point.



Obama was blamed for the government shutdown more so. The media does not want any blame casted towards Obama and the truth hurts that the blame game no longer works. Obama's jig is up, even with the media cowtailing him like they are a part of his campaign. People saw through Obama 'making it hurt,' so the republicans can get the blame and the tea party is seen for what they are- the good guy, the average, grassroots caring Americans putting country before politics and caring for the vets that got shut out and not going on late night TV taking blame because they cower to Obama.

[Rapunzel]

I repeat what Charles Krauthammer (no flaming conservative by a long shot) said on Special Report yesterday........ "the reports of the TP demise are overstated - the TP is alive and thriving"

[Lipstick on a Hillary]

This cycle will pretty much doom the credibility of the Tea Party if these ringers (i.e., Milton Wolf, Dwayne Stovall, Matt Bevin) they've backed in the primaries go down to defeat as it appears they will.

Sure thing, Sinky. 

[truth_seeker]

Sen Lee said:

“I remind myself from time to time that as Constitutional conservatives, it’s our job to find converts,” Lee said after opening with a joke about a Christian fatally fighting with another Christian from a barely different denomination. “We need to spend more effort creating converts than identifying heretics.”

[Carling]

See the article's title:

NYT/CBS Poll: Tea Party favorability surges  since government shutdown

Looks good to me, I'll take it.

I've been told the the shutdown was a positive for the Tea Party.  Clearly is wasn't.  It was a positive for Ted Cruz, though.  He raised not only his profile for 2016, but also millions of dollars from supporters. 

[Carling]

Sen Lee said:

“I remind myself from time to time that as Constitutional conservatives, it’s our job to find converts,” Lee said after opening with a joke about a Christian fatally fighting with another Christian from a barely different denomination. “We need to spend more effort creating converts than identifying heretics.”

That's a great statement by Lee.  Nice to see him distancing himself from Cruz, too.

[Carling]

It sucks that the GOP had to go on record with a cloture vote on Ted Cruz's latest disaster-in-the-making, but thankfully the adults bit the bullet and took a vote instead of shutting down the government again.  The Tea Party would be at 10% if Cruz had gotten his way again, but he was saved by the very GOP who he is trying to defeat. 

[sinkspur]

It sucks that the GOP had to go on record with a cloture vote on Ted Cruz's latest disaster-in-the-making, but thankfully the adults bit the bullet and took a vote instead of shutting down the government again.  The Tea Party would be at 10% if Cruz had gotten his way again, but he was saved by the very GOP who he is trying to defeat.

I didn't know until last week that Cruz was threatening to filibuster the background check bill last April but cooler heads prevailed and allowed cloture so Democrats were forced to  defeat the bill.  The man has no awareness of strategy whatsoever.