Author Topic: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed  (Read 572 times)

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Offline Rapunzel

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U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« on: February 28, 2014, 11:36:27 PM »
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/28/u-s-spies-said-no-invasion-putin-disagreed.html

U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed

02.28.14



A day after U.S. intelligence said there would be no Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s troops started coming over the border.

On Thursday night, the best assessment from the U.S. intelligence community—and for that matter most experts observing events in Ukraine—was that Vladimir Putin’s military would not invade Ukraine. Less than 24 hours later, however, there are reports from the ground of Russian troops pushing into the Ukrainian province of Crimea. It’s hardly a full-blown invasion. But it’s not quite the picture U.S. analysts were painting just a day before.

There was good reason to think Putin wouldn’t do it. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov told Secretary of State John Kerry that Russia respected the territorial integrity of the Ukraine. U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that the 150,000-man Russian military exercises announced by Putin on Wednesday were not preparations for an invasion of Ukraine because no medical units accompanied the troops. And Russian and U.S. diplomats were still working on Iran and Syrian diplomacy. All of this followed a successful Winter Olympic games for Putin’s Russia.

Yet private security contractors, working for the Russian military, seized control of two airports in Crimea on Friday. And Ukrainian border officials said that Russian cargo planes had landed inside the province, and that 10 military helicopters flew into Ukrainian airspace.

Quote
    “Nobody thought Putin was going to invade last night… no one really saw this kind of thing coming.”

U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence on the fast moving situation in Ukraine tell The Daily Beast that analytic products from the intelligence community this week did not discount the prospect of Russian provocations and even light incursions in the Russian majority province of Crimea, the home of Russia’s fleet in the Black Sea.

Nonetheless, until Friday, no one anticipated a Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory."Nobody thought Putin was going to invade last night,” one Senate aide who works closely on the Ukraine crisis. “He has the G8 summit in Sochi coming up, no one really saw this kind of thing coming." This source also stressed that events are still moving quickly on the ground. “There is still a question about whether this is Russian troops coming across the border or Russian troops moving around the installations in Crimea.”

One former U.S. intelligence officer told The Daily Beast he expects Russian operatives to begin launching false flag style operations designed to look like terrorist attacks or arms shipments to anti-Russian groups in Crimea and to leak alleged conversations implicating Kiev and the CIA in these drummed up events. 

“Putin's aim is to show that he is in the catbird seat, and there is nothing we can do about it,” this former officer said. “He's like a kid with a can of gasoline and a book of matches, and he laughs as Obama tries to deliver lectures on how fire is dangerous. Indeed, Putin throws banana peels on the ground, and Obama manages to slip on every one of them. I've never seen anything like it.”

Already there are signs of Russian trickery. Ukrtelecom, Ukraine’s largest internet and cell phone provider, said Friday that most cell and internet service was down for the Crimea region.

Jim Lewis, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former U.S. diplomat, said disrupting communications networks is part of Russian military doctrine. In Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, the military invasion was preceded by a cyber attack on Georgia’s communications networks.

“This is Russian doctrine,” Lewis said. “This is their cook book on how to stage an intervention or military operation starts with knocking out communications nodes.” Lewis said Russia would have most likely disrupted the internet and cell phone service through a cyber attack because this kind of attack can be repaired, as opposed to taking a bulldozer to the fiber-optic cables. “The intent is information warfare,” Lewis said. “They talk about knocking out the nodes so they are the ones to control the narrative and the information and it’s harder for others to get out a counter story.”

In Washington, the Obama administration is still formulating options and hoping for the best. Among the options being considered, according to U.S. officials, is boycotting the G8 Summit scheduled for Sochi in June and encouraging other countries to do the same. If Russian troops stay in Crimea, it could scare off trade and further investment in Russia and also further weaken the ruble. It’s debatable whether that would influence Russian thinking.

“We have a very weak hand,” Paul Saunders, the executive director of the Center for the National Interest, tells The Daily Beast.

If anything, Saunders added, President Obama’s warning to Putin that “there will be costs” to the incursion might force Putin to dig in to his position, lest he be seen as caving to American pressure.

“It’s a mistake of the administration coming out I the way that it has trying to discourage Russian military action because they are in essence waving a red cloth in front of a bull,” Saunders said. “Is a public message the best way to deal with that versus some private communication? They are setting themselves up for another Syria red line.”

Others in Washington, however, are beginning to face the grim consequence of Russia’s actions. “It appears that the Russian military now controls the Crimean peninsula,” said Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence in a statement. “This aggression is a threat not only to Ukraine, but to regional peace and stability. Russia’s latest action is yet another indicator that Vladimir Putin’s hegemonic ambitions threaten U.S. interests and allies around the world."

—additional reporting by Josh Rogin
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2014, 11:36:53 PM »
@moneyries 2h

“Putin throws banana peels on the ground, and Obama manages to slip on every one of them.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2014, 11:37:46 PM »
Everyone realizes Obama's National Security Advisor was a Hollywood script writer before he was promoted this job.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline Oceander

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2014, 11:39:55 PM »
@moneyries 2h

“Putin throws banana peels on the ground, and Obama manages to slip on every one of them.

Nah.  Obama takes the banana peels from Putin, puts them on the ground, and then proceeds to slip on every one of them!

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2014, 11:54:29 PM »
US Intelligence. Wrong on 1989 breakup of USSR, wrong on 9/11/2001, and wrong now.


Offline Oceander

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2014, 11:55:30 PM »
US Intelligence. Wrong on 1989 breakup of USSR, wrong on 9/11/2001, and wrong now.



So they were wrong when it fell apart, and now they're wrong about it being put back together.  Apparently you don't need all the king's men and all the king's horses to put humpty dumpty together, you just need a Russian strongman and the US government!

Offline musiclady

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2014, 09:52:22 AM »
So they were wrong when it fell apart, and now they're wrong about it being put back together.  Apparently you don't need all the king's men and all the king's horses to put humpty dumpty together, you just need a Russian strongman and the US government!


 you just need a Russian strongman and the [IMPOTENT] US government!
Character still matters.  It always matters.

May 3, 2016 - the day the Republican party left ME.  I am now without a Party, and quite possibly without a country.  May God have mercy!

Offline Oceander

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2014, 11:10:43 AM »

 you just need a Russian strongman and the [IMPOTENT] US government!


So the US government was impotent when the Soviet Union collapsed?

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2014, 12:21:21 PM »
Nah.  Obama takes the banana peels from Putin, puts them on the ground, and then proceeds to slip on every one of them!

Give credit where credit is due.  Obama doesn't need banana peels to slip...slipping is his gift. 
"January 20th 2017 will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again."  --  President Donald J. Trump

Offline musiclady

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2014, 12:38:25 PM »
So the US government was impotent when the Soviet Union collapsed?


?????????

No.  It's impotent NOW.

What am I missing?
« Last Edit: March 01, 2014, 12:38:50 PM by musiclady »
Character still matters.  It always matters.

May 3, 2016 - the day the Republican party left ME.  I am now without a Party, and quite possibly without a country.  May God have mercy!

Offline mountaineer

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2014, 01:06:38 PM »
Quote
President Obama’s warning to Putin that “there will be costs” to the incursion might force Putin to dig in to his position
Obama's warning is more likely to force Putin to laugh uncontrollably ... and then order troops into Ukraine.
Quote
KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia executed a de facto military takeover of a strategic region in Ukraine as the parliament in Moscow gave President Vladimir Putin a green light Saturday to proceed to protect Russian interests. The newly installed government in Kiev was powerless to react to the swift takeover of Crimea by Russian troops already in Ukraine and more flown in, aided by pro-Russian Ukrainian groups.

Putin's move follows President Barack Obama's warning Friday "there will be costs" if Russia intervenes militarily, sharply raising the stakes in the conflict over Ukraine's future and evoking memories of Cold War brinkmanship. The explicit reference to the use of troops escalated days of conflict between the two countries, which started when Ukraine's pro-Russian president was pushed out by a protest movement of people who wanted closer ties to Europe. ...

AP story continues here

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2014, 03:54:40 PM »
Every single one of us on this site said as soon as the olympics were over this was going to happen - and the CIA missed it????????????????   :thud:
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2014, 04:34:50 PM »
Every single one of us on this site said as soon as the olympics were over this was going to happen - and the CIA missed it????????????????   :thud:
The CIA is reactive, not proactive. Their accuracy record is dismal, and they are not much more than political operatives, serving the administration, more than legitimate security and intelligence purposes.

Eisenhower warned about the "military industrial" complex, but his advice has been largely ignored. The CIA is an employment division, for countless mostly worthless government beauracrats.

For every honest spy or warrior, there are hundreds of DC "yes" men and women.

Offline mountaineer

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2014, 05:42:13 PM »
For every honest spy or warrior, there are hundreds of DC "yes" men and women.
I suspect you are tragically correct in that assessment.

Offline Carling

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2014, 06:01:55 PM »
Obama will send Barney Frank over to negotiate with Putin.
Trump has created a cult and looks more and more like Hitler every day.
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Offline mountaineer

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Re: U.S. Spies Said No Invasion—Putin Disagreed
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2014, 06:06:52 PM »
Obama will send Barney Frank over to negotiate with Putin.
And Billie Jean King?   :whistle:


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