Author Topic: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4  (Read 1357 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Offline Once-Ler

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2014, 12:32:25 AM »
McConnell leads his Republican primary challenger, Matt Bevin, by 26 points, 55 percent to 29 percent, in the poll.

 :whistle:
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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2014, 01:20:32 AM »
McConnell leads his Republican primary challenger, Matt Bevin, by 26 points, 55 percent to 29 percent, in the poll.

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And that reflects reality #1; e.g. that true conservatives are disproportionately found online, but apparently not in the polls.

29% reflects narrow, deep and loud. #2 The Tea Party had better get a move on. I went to the site for Tea Party Patriots, looked at my SoCal area chapters, and Arizona chapters. There is scant evidence of activity.

But try to get them to acknowledge this.
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Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2014, 03:42:52 AM »
In Kentucky, Matt Bevin Polls Better Than Mitch McConnell Against the Democrat

http://www.redstate.com/2014/02/04/matt-bevin-in-kentucky-polls-better-against-the-democrat-than-mcconnell-does/

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2014, 04:12:12 PM »
If we lose KY in November blame McConnell for not getting out of the way.  Like Lindsay Graham, he's reached his expiration date.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2014, 04:46:41 PM »
McConnell leads his Republican primary challenger, Matt Bevin, by 26 points, 55 percent to 29 percent, in the poll.

 :whistle:
Name recognition.

Jim Tedisco was blowing Scott Murphy out by similar numbers at the start of his Congressional race. Two months later, Tedisco was on the losing end of a very close election. People knew who Tedisco, a prominent State Assemblyman, was. They only knew Murphy as the generic opposition (it was a swing district, widely expected to be a near 50-50 split come Election Day).

The case with McConnell is almost identical: he leads solely because people know who he is. This isn't Enzi-Cheney, where the opposition isn't wanted. Mitch McConnell is hated in Kentucky. I have relatives there.

Believe me, if Bevin has 30 points at this point in the cycle when few outside the junkies are paying attention, he's in decent shape.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2014, 04:49:42 PM »
Name recognition.

Jim Tedisco was blowing Scott Murphy out by similar numbers at the start of his Congressional race. Two months later, Tedisco was on the losing end of a very close election. People knew who Tedisco, a prominent State Assemblyman, was. They only knew Murphy as the generic opposition (it was a swing district, widely expected to be a near 50-50 split come Election Day).

The case with McConnell is almost identical: he leads solely because people know who he is. This isn't Enzi-Cheney, where the opposition isn't wanted. Mitch McConnell is hated in Kentucky. I have relatives there.

Believe me, if Bevin has 30 points at this point in the cycle when few outside the junkies are paying attention, he's in decent shape.

He's made some good inroads into McConnell's numbers the last couple of months and BTW tomorrow there is a big function going on in KY and Bevin is part of it....  a lot of prominent conservatives are getting behind him.  He was on Beck's afternoon show on The Blaze yesterday, Bevin is a very well-spoken, intelligent man... he is no flake, not even close. I think the more voters in KY see him the more they will like him.

Offline Gazoo

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2014, 04:50:00 PM »
In Kentucky, Matt Bevin Polls Better Than Mitch McConnell Against the Democrat

http://www.redstate.com/2014/02/04/matt-bevin-in-kentucky-polls-better-against-the-democrat-than-mcconnell-does/

McConnell should truly serve and retire.
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Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2014, 04:57:39 PM »
McConnell should truly serve and retire.

For him, it's all about him. To hell with us who have to live under this regime!

Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2014, 05:22:51 PM »
So let me get this straight:  McConnell beats Bevins, easily, but only trails Grimes by 4 points.

The big question, I guess, is whether Bevins supporters will "come home" after McConnell wins the primary.

Or will they elect Grimes by staying home or actually voting for her?

It appears, from the latest polls, that the GOP will pick up the Senate.  Do Republicans want McConnell or John Cornyn (currently number 2 in the Senate) to be Majority Leader?
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2014, 05:38:02 PM »
At this point, I don't think McConnell is electable.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2014, 05:44:47 PM »
At this point, I don't think McConnell is electable.

Based on what? 

He's not electable if Bevins' supporters decide they'd rather have a Democrat Senator in Kentucky.   Tea Partiers throwing a fit has happened before, though.
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2014, 05:50:32 PM »
Based on what? 

He's not electable if Bevins' supporters decide they'd rather have a Democrat Senator in Kentucky.   Tea Partiers throwing a fit has happened before, though.

You have that backwards.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2014, 05:52:28 PM »
You have that backwards.

Uh, no.  Bevins won't beat McConnell in the primary, so his supporters have to decide if they want to queer the election to the Democrats.
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2014, 05:54:45 PM »
Based on what? 

He's not electable if Bevins' supporters decide they'd rather have a Democrat Senator in Kentucky.   Tea Partiers throwing a fit has happened before, though.
We're not just talking Republicans here. Polling has shown people leaving the party in droves.

McConnell will have to also win over independents (the fastest growing group) and registered Democrats who vote Republican (very common in the South) to keep his seat in a general election. This poll illustrates he cannot do that as well as Bevin. Especially considering Rand Paul (who is, in contrast, very popular in the state) is still there, those independents may not be so hesitant to send Grimes to office if it means getting McConnell out.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2014, 05:55:49 PM by jmyrlefuller »

Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2014, 06:05:40 PM »
We're not just talking Republicans here. Polling has shown people leaving the party in droves.

McConnell will have to also win over independents (the fastest growing group) and registered Democrats who vote Republican (very common in the South) to keep his seat in a general election. This poll illustrates he cannot do that as well as Bevin. Especially considering Rand Paul (who is, in contrast, very popular in the state) is still there, those independents may not be so hesitant to send Grimes to office if it means getting McConnell out.

Bevin can't beat McConnell.  And McConnell is much smarter and adept at debating than Grimes, who has been known to make a fool of herself in speaking engagements.

But, hey, Kentucky has a Democrat governor and apparently loves them some Obamacare, so who the hell knows what's happening to that state?
Roy Moore's "spiritual warfare" is driving past a junior high without stopping.


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