Author Topic: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4  (Read 1226 times)

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http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=CAEFA9E0-8CD5-45AB-993C-D7B96A631107

 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
By: James Hohmann
February 6, 2014 07:01 PM EST

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell trails his Democratic opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes, by 4 points in a new poll published Thursday night by Kentucky’s largest newspaper.

The survey also found President Barack Obama to be slightly more popular than the longtime incumbent senator in the red state.

The Louisville Courier-Journal poll, a robo-poll conducted by SurveyUSA, gave McConnell 42 percent to Grimes’ 46 percent, adding to Democrats’ hopes of a competitive race.



The poll also found that only 27 percent of registered voters view the Republican incumbent favorably. Fifty percent view him unfavorably.

According to the paper, most of the poll questions used a sample of 1,082 registered voters in Kentucky and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey was conducted Jan. 30 through Feb. 4.

The poll found that the president’s approval rating is 34 percent in the Bluegrass State, compared to 32 percent who approve of McConnell’s performance.

McConnell leads his Republican primary challenger, Matt Bevin, by 26 points, 55 percent to 29 percent, in the poll. The Courier-Journal attributed some of McConnell’s weakness to conservative frustration, noting that these voters would come home after a primary victory.

Grimes, the Kentucky secretary of state, remains largely undefined: 27 percent view her unfavorably; 26 percent view her favorably; 29 percent have a neutral opinion; and 18 percent had no opinion.

“We’re very comfortable about where this race stands and extremely confident that Senator McConnell will earn the votes of Kentuckians this fall,” McConnell spokeswoman Allison Moore said. “The contrast between Mitch McConnell’s conservative accomplishments for Kentucky and Alison Lundergan Grimes’s alliance with President Obama’s agenda of Obamacare and the war on coal will become very clear to everyone over the next nine months.”

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Offline Once-Ler

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2014, 12:32:25 AM »
McConnell leads his Republican primary challenger, Matt Bevin, by 26 points, 55 percent to 29 percent, in the poll.

 :whistle:
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2014, 01:20:32 AM »
McConnell leads his Republican primary challenger, Matt Bevin, by 26 points, 55 percent to 29 percent, in the poll.

 :whistle:
And that reflects reality #1; e.g. that true conservatives are disproportionately found online, but apparently not in the polls.

29% reflects narrow, deep and loud. #2 The Tea Party had better get a move on. I went to the site for Tea Party Patriots, looked at my SoCal area chapters, and Arizona chapters. There is scant evidence of activity.

But try to get them to acknowledge this.
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Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2014, 03:42:52 AM »
In Kentucky, Matt Bevin Polls Better Than Mitch McConnell Against the Democrat

http://www.redstate.com/2014/02/04/matt-bevin-in-kentucky-polls-better-against-the-democrat-than-mcconnell-does/

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2014, 04:12:12 PM »
If we lose KY in November blame McConnell for not getting out of the way.  Like Lindsay Graham, he's reached his expiration date.
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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2014, 04:46:41 PM »
McConnell leads his Republican primary challenger, Matt Bevin, by 26 points, 55 percent to 29 percent, in the poll.

 :whistle:
Name recognition.

Jim Tedisco was blowing Scott Murphy out by similar numbers at the start of his Congressional race. Two months later, Tedisco was on the losing end of a very close election. People knew who Tedisco, a prominent State Assemblyman, was. They only knew Murphy as the generic opposition (it was a swing district, widely expected to be a near 50-50 split come Election Day).

The case with McConnell is almost identical: he leads solely because people know who he is. This isn't Enzi-Cheney, where the opposition isn't wanted. Mitch McConnell is hated in Kentucky. I have relatives there.

Believe me, if Bevin has 30 points at this point in the cycle when few outside the junkies are paying attention, he's in decent shape.
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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2014, 04:49:42 PM »
Name recognition.

Jim Tedisco was blowing Scott Murphy out by similar numbers at the start of his Congressional race. Two months later, Tedisco was on the losing end of a very close election. People knew who Tedisco, a prominent State Assemblyman, was. They only knew Murphy as the generic opposition (it was a swing district, widely expected to be a near 50-50 split come Election Day).

The case with McConnell is almost identical: he leads solely because people know who he is. This isn't Enzi-Cheney, where the opposition isn't wanted. Mitch McConnell is hated in Kentucky. I have relatives there.

Believe me, if Bevin has 30 points at this point in the cycle when few outside the junkies are paying attention, he's in decent shape.

He's made some good inroads into McConnell's numbers the last couple of months and BTW tomorrow there is a big function going on in KY and Bevin is part of it....  a lot of prominent conservatives are getting behind him.  He was on Beck's afternoon show on The Blaze yesterday, Bevin is a very well-spoken, intelligent man... he is no flake, not even close. I think the more voters in KY see him the more they will like him.
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Offline Gazoo

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2014, 04:50:00 PM »
In Kentucky, Matt Bevin Polls Better Than Mitch McConnell Against the Democrat

http://www.redstate.com/2014/02/04/matt-bevin-in-kentucky-polls-better-against-the-democrat-than-mcconnell-does/


McConnell should truly serve and retire.
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Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2014, 04:57:39 PM »
McConnell should truly serve and retire.

For him, it's all about him. To hell with us who have to live under this regime!

Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2014, 05:22:51 PM »
So let me get this straight:  McConnell beats Bevins, easily, but only trails Grimes by 4 points.

The big question, I guess, is whether Bevins supporters will "come home" after McConnell wins the primary.

Or will they elect Grimes by staying home or actually voting for her?

It appears, from the latest polls, that the GOP will pick up the Senate.  Do Republicans want McConnell or John Cornyn (currently number 2 in the Senate) to be Majority Leader?
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Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2014, 05:38:02 PM »
At this point, I don't think McConnell is electable.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2014, 05:44:47 PM »
At this point, I don't think McConnell is electable.

Based on what? 

He's not electable if Bevins' supporters decide they'd rather have a Democrat Senator in Kentucky.   Tea Partiers throwing a fit has happened before, though.
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Offline happyg

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2014, 05:50:32 PM »
Based on what? 

He's not electable if Bevins' supporters decide they'd rather have a Democrat Senator in Kentucky.   Tea Partiers throwing a fit has happened before, though.

You have that backwards.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2014, 05:52:28 PM »
You have that backwards.

Uh, no.  Bevins won't beat McConnell in the primary, so his supporters have to decide if they want to queer the election to the Democrats.
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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2014, 05:54:45 PM »
Based on what? 

He's not electable if Bevins' supporters decide they'd rather have a Democrat Senator in Kentucky.   Tea Partiers throwing a fit has happened before, though.
We're not just talking Republicans here. Polling has shown people leaving the party in droves.

McConnell will have to also win over independents (the fastest growing group) and registered Democrats who vote Republican (very common in the South) to keep his seat in a general election. This poll illustrates he cannot do that as well as Bevin. Especially considering Rand Paul (who is, in contrast, very popular in the state) is still there, those independents may not be so hesitant to send Grimes to office if it means getting McConnell out.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2014, 05:55:49 PM by jmyrlefuller »
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: 2014 election poll: Mitch McConnell trails Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2014, 06:05:40 PM »
We're not just talking Republicans here. Polling has shown people leaving the party in droves.

McConnell will have to also win over independents (the fastest growing group) and registered Democrats who vote Republican (very common in the South) to keep his seat in a general election. This poll illustrates he cannot do that as well as Bevin. Especially considering Rand Paul (who is, in contrast, very popular in the state) is still there, those independents may not be so hesitant to send Grimes to office if it means getting McConnell out.

Bevin can't beat McConnell.  And McConnell is much smarter and adept at debating than Grimes, who has been known to make a fool of herself in speaking engagements.

But, hey, Kentucky has a Democrat governor and apparently loves them some Obamacare, so who the hell knows what's happening to that state?
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