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Offline mystery-ak

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Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« on: December 26, 2013, 09:30:19 PM »
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=59BC3822-EA45-4512-9325-BEBD4DB548F0

 Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
By: Emily Schultheis
December 26, 2013 04:26 PM EST

The campaigns of 2014 will be messy long before the candidates get to the general election, with a growing number of incumbents facing primary challenges they weren’t expecting.

Republicans, who are keen on taking back the Senate, are especially concerned after two election cycles in which GOP primaries produced tea-party aligned candidates who lost winnable seats in the general election.

Will 2014 be an anti-incumbent year the way 2010 was? Or will incumbents be able to use their resources and history with their constituents to hold on? In light of those questions, here are POLITICO’s top 10 primaries to watch in 2014:



1. Kentucky Senate (May 20)

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is one of the country’s most visible politicians, and he has one of the lowest home-state approval ratings of his GOP Senate colleagues.

With the trend of conservative activist-types challenging incumbent GOPers, then, it’s no surprise that McConnell is facing a primary challenge. Activist Matt Bevin announced he’d enter the GOP primary against McConnell earlier this year and has already been aided financially and on the television airwaves by conservative outside groups.

Nobody really expects the well-funded and well-connected McConnell, an institution in Kentucky, to lose to Bevin — but he’ll have to expend a decent amount of his resources on the primary instead of saving them for a general-election fight with Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.





2. Georgia Senate (May 20)

The Georgia GOP primary is a race that national Democrats watch with glee. It’s a free-for-all with eight declared candidates thus far, including U.S. Reps. Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey and Jack Kingston, businessman David Perdue and former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel.

It’s also one of the places Democrats say is most likely to produce 2014’s Todd Akin “legitimate rape” moment, given the propensity of certain candidates in the race to say less-than-politically-correct things (Gingrey, for example, endorsed traditional gender roles).

Whoever wins the primary will take on nonprofit CEO Michelle Nunn, daughter of longtime Georgia pol Sam Nunn, in the general election. The crazier this primary gets, the more hopeful national Democrats will be that Nunn can make a typically red seat competitive for them.




3. Hawaii Senate (Aug. 9)

Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie picked his own lieutenant governor, Brian Schatz, to succeed the late Sen. Daniel Inouye last winter instead of Inouye’s hand-picked successor, U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. In the process, he set off what’s bound to be one of the most competitive Democratic primaries in the country.

Schatz, now an incumbent, has all the benefits of being in office, including a fundraising advantage and a team of seasoned D.C. operatives. But Hanabusa has the support of Inouye’s family and is tapping into his political network, which reaches across Hawaii.

The seat is seen as safe for Democrats, so whoever comes out of the August primary will almost certainly be the next senator from Hawaii. But given the nature of this race — between the now-incumbent senator and the protegee of a pol who was a Hawaii institution — it’s definitely one to keep an eye on this spring and summer.






4. Wyoming Senate (Aug. 19)

Sen. Mike Enzi never imagined he’d have a major primary on his hands this year. Then Liz Cheney decided she wanted his seat.

Cheney is far from a perfect candidate: she’s already had to both combat claims of carpetbagging (she’s lived with her family in Virginia and only recently returned to Wyoming) and deal with a very public family dispute with her sister, Mary Cheney, over same-sex marriage.

Polling in the race thus far has shown Enzi far ahead of the former vice president’s daughter, but Cheney’s name and connections could help make this a more competitive race.





5. Pennsylvania Governor (May 20)

Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett is vulnerable, and Democrats know it. No fewer than eight of them are vying for a chance to face off against Corbett in the 2014 general election, a number that could grow between now and the state’s May primary.

There are candidates from all parts of the state’s political and business world, including U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, State Treasurer Rob McCord, businessman Tom Wolf and former state environmental protection director Katie McGinty.

With Wolf’s pledge to drop $10 million on the primary, this race has the potential to be both costly and bruising for whoever becomes the eventual nominee. How nasty the primary gets could affect the outcome of the general election, too, since Corbett is hoping he’ll get to face a tired and broke Democratic nominee.




6. Mississippi Senate (June 3)

What would have been a sleeper race for six-term incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran has now become the toughest reelection battle of his Senate career. Cochran is facing a primary challenge from state Sen. Chris McDaniel, a conservative candidate who’s earned the backing of the Club for Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Madison Project.

While it’s always tough to take out an incumbent senator, McDaniel has his state legislative experience to help legitimize his candidacy, and the kind of money outside conservative groups are already spending on his behalf indicates there’s far more to come between now and primary day.

Either way, this is a reliably red seat, so whoever wins the primary will presumably be the state’s next senator.




7. Montana Senate (June 3)

National Democrats were hoping they’d have a slam-dunk, field-clearing candidate in Lt. Gov. John Walsh. Their hopes are even higher now that it’s likely Walsh will be appointed to retiring Sen. Max Baucus’s post once the latter is nominated as ambassador to China. If he’s appointed, Democrats expect Walsh can use the power of incumbency to keep the seat for another six years after the November election.

But Walsh’s two Democratic opponents, former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger and rancher Dirk Adams, have not indicated they would exit the race. Their camps have suggested that Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock appoint someone else to the Baucus seat.

Democratic strategists expect Walsh will ultimately win the nomination whether he’s appointed to the seat or not. But in a state that’s regarded as tough terrain for them, a costly, long primary could hurt Democrats’ chances of holding the seat. Republicans, meanwhile, have coalesced around U.S. Rep. Steve Daines in his GOP primary.




8. California-17 (June 3)

Longtime Democratic Rep. Mike Honda hasn’t had to deal with a major primary challenger in a long time. But this year, he’s up against businessman and former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna, a young newcomer who has the support of several tech giants in the Silicon Valley area and has proven he can raise a significant war chest.

Honda argues that he’s served the district well, and he has strong support from the local and national Democratic establishment. But Khanna says the district needs new blood and suggests Honda doesn’t understand Silicon Valley the way Silicon Valley’s congressman should.

Given California’s top-two primary system, Honda and Khanna will likely both advance to the general election — meaning they have almost 11 months to battle it out between now and Election Day.




9. Texas Senate (March 4)

U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman shocked the political world in early December when he filed (minutes before the deadline) to run against incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn.

Stockman, as a sitting member of Congress who’s known on the national stage for his strident comments, will be able to pick up some grassroots support in the state. But unlike in some other states with conservative challengers to GOP incumbents, outside conservative groups aren’t rushing to support Stockman.

The Club for Growth, for instance, said it didn’t expect to get involved in this primary and praised Cornyn’s conservative record. If Stockman, who’s already got a campaign problem in his mounting ethics issues, doesn’t get outside help he’ll be much less likely to land any real hits on Cornyn.




10. Idaho-02 (May 20)

The race between incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Simpson and Club for Growth-backed attorney Bryan Smith will be the marquee establishment-versus-challenger battle on the House level.

Simpson, an ally of House Speaker John Boehner, has the backing of most of the Idaho political establishment, including Gov. Butch Otter and Sen. Mike Crapo. His race also drew GOP 2012 presidential contender Mitt Romney out of relative political retirement to endorse Simpson, a fellow Mormon, in the primary.

But Smith has enough support from key tea party-aligned groups, such as the Club for Growth, Citizens United and FreedomWorks, that Simpson can’t afford not to take him seriously. Outside groups will spend heavily on Smith’s behalf, and this could be one of the most expensive House primaries on the map.

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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2013, 09:40:04 PM »
Steve Stockman has absolutely NO CHANCE against Cornyn.  His ethics issues continue to mount and he is bound to say something stupid before primary day.
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2013, 09:44:29 PM »
It would be encouraging to see as much or even more energy about defeating democrats which means more seats, instead of about replacing other Republicans which means no more seats.




Offline sinkspur

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2013, 09:52:41 PM »
It would be encouraging to see as much or even more energy about defeating democrats which means more seats, instead of about replacing other Republicans which means no more seats.

The 2010 Tea Party was about defeating Democrats.  The GOP won the House.

  The 2014 Tea Party will be about defeating Republicans.  The GOP will win the Senate, without the Tea Party.
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Offline Cincinnatus

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2013, 10:08:28 PM »
The GOP will win the Senate, without the Tea Party.

Assuming this is correct, a most major assumption for a variety of reasons, it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
We shall never be abandoned by Heaven while we act worthy of its aid ~~ Samuel Adams

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2013, 10:18:18 PM »
The GOP will win the Senate, without the Tea Party.

Assuming this is correct, a most major assumption for a variety of reasons, it will be a Pyrrhic victory.

Of course.  Because if the GOP Senators are not the ideologically pure Tea Party candidates, then those Senators are no better than the Democrat Senators.

Isn't that right?           
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Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2013, 10:28:11 PM »
Your kind of "Republicans," sink, are no better than Democrats.  In fact, many are worse.

We all know you want big government, RINOs who will continue to cave into everything Democrats want, so as long as it keeps your 401k in good shape.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

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Offline Cincinnatus

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2013, 10:29:24 PM »
You are, for once, correct.

In the long run and when considering the future of our Republic, Because if the GOP Senators are not the ideologically pure Tea Party candidates, then those Senators are no better than the Democrat Senators.

What difference does it make if the politician destroying the Constitution has an "R" or a "D" after his name?
« Last Edit: December 26, 2013, 10:31:28 PM by Cincinnatus »
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #8 on: December 26, 2013, 10:48:11 PM »
You are, for once, correct.

In the long run and when considering the future of our Republic, Because if the GOP Senators are not the ideologically pure Tea Party candidates, then those Senators are no better than the Democrat Senators.

What difference does it make if the politician destroying the Constitution has an "R" or a "D" after his name?

None! No difference at all!

The only thing the inside the beltway crowd (both parties) is interested in is preserving their multi billion dollar a year game at the public's expense!!
« Last Edit: December 26, 2013, 10:48:42 PM by Bigun »

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2013, 10:51:03 PM »
Your kind of "Republicans," sink, are no better than Democrats.  In fact, many are worse.

We all know you want big government, RINOs who will continue to cave into everything Democrats want, so as long as it keeps your 401k in good shape.

You are wrong, of course, in every single thing you've just said.

You're wrong a lot.  You shouldn't assume what others believe or think. 
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Offline Cincinnatus

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2013, 11:03:30 PM »
My goodness, what an insult to Atomic Cow, a fellow who makes a number of intelligent and independent contributions to this Forum.

You shouldn't assume what others believe or think.

Get miffed, say something spiteful I guess.
We shall never be abandoned by Heaven while we act worthy of its aid ~~ Samuel Adams

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2013, 11:08:29 PM »
My goodness, what an insult to Atomic Cow, a fellow who makes a number of intelligent and independent contributions to this Forum.

You shouldn't assume what others believe or think.

Get miffed, say something spiteful I guess.

Never assume what someone thinks, Cindy.

Atomic Cow may make valuable contributions on other threads, but not on this one.
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2013, 12:48:11 AM »
Most, if not all, politicians are driven by self-interest, not some virtuous, selfless ideological crusade. Those few ideologically driven ones, Rand Paul, Dennis Kucinich, are ineffective fringe ideologues with very lirtt.

What we see as "leaders" are those who simply echo back to us the sentiments that we already hold as benchmarks for that leader that we wish would rise. They don't do it because they truly believe that those things can actually be achieved. They do it because echoing back our own ideals and sentiments earns them our money and votes.

The T.E.A. Party began as a grass-roots movement, but what few ideologically driven candidates actually made it to Congress got eaten up by the major sharks of power and money. I like Ted Cruz, but I don't kid myself. His is a battle for influence and eventually power. If he ever gains significant power, he will have to compromise in order to remain in power.

Just as conservatives always seem to complain that the GOP caves into Democrats, liberals are bitching just as loudly about Democrats caving into Republicans.

Both sides are basically right. Even in the partisan enactment of the ACA, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party accused the Obama administration and the Democratic Party of caving in because they failed to put in place a single-payer system.

Essentially, government is a machine that preys on the sentiments, wants, needs, and fears of the people to sustain themselves in power. To do it, the incite class and race, sentiments of entitlement and fear of the evils of an out-of-control government, even as they grow the government and help it spin out of control. They garner power by telling us that they will go fight for our ideals, when they have very little intention of actually doing that.

That's why after so many years, the War on Poverty has driven the number of people living in poverty up. Why in the aftermath of every one of the billions of dollars spent in education, our kids are grossly under-performing in the world stage. Why after decades of financial and electoral support to pro-life candidates, legal abortions have been minimally diminished. Why after promising the redistribution of wealth in order to achieve a "more fair" society, wealth is concentrated on an ever-diminishing percentage of the population. The logical extension of wealth redistribution as a governing policy, sees all wealth in the hands of a small number of people holding political power.

What all politicians know is that problems solved dry up cash contributions and political support from voters. So it is in their absolute best self-interest to never actually solve any problems, and most (if not all) politicians are driven by self-interest.
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

Offline Once-Ler

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2013, 04:51:12 AM »
The GOP will win the Senate, without the Tea Party.

Assuming this is correct, a most major assumption for a variety of reasons, it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
It will be liberating.
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Offline Once-Ler

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2013, 05:32:00 AM »
What all politicians know is that problems solved dry up cash contributions and political support from voters. So it is in their absolute best self-interest to never actually solve any problems, and most (if not all) politicians are driven by self-interest.

Excellent post Luis.  As usual.  I don't agree with all your conclusions but you make a compelling case.  What you didn't touch on was the people of America get the government they ask for.  Everybody wants to blame the government nobody points the finger at the voters who choose liberalism.  Everybody thinks if the GOP just gets that one charismatic ideologue who can relate conservatism in a way voters can understand he'll convince America.  It ain't gonna happen.

It this point in time America is very evenly split between conservatives and liberals with a bunch of people who reject both ideologies in the middle.  It's not for a lack of hot air on both sides.   Anyone who wants to hear the liberal or conservative message has a lot of outlets. I can hop over to the Huff Poo to read up the liberal side or Drudge for the conservative side.  Fox or MSNBC. Rush or NPR.

In fact, In 1988 when Rush hit the radio he used to tell his audience that they needed to listen to the show for at least 4-6 weeks to understand it.  Before Fox and Rush and Internet I think a case could be made for ignorance of conservatism.  Rush never says that anymore.  Apathy is the only case to be made now and how do you message to the apathetic?  The American voter has listened to the conservative argument and found it lacking.  It's not because it wasn't phrased right.

Much like communists complaining that communism hasn't really been tried in the USSR, or Poland, or China, or Cuba...Conservatives say Dubya's watered down conservatism wasn't real, even though they idolize a man in the 80s who cut taxes, signed bloated budgets, challenged foreign powers, grew our military might, and wanted to solve illegal immigration instead of whine about it.

The power of the extreme right is waning and that is frustrating to true believers.  They search for a conspiracy to explain the choice of the voters and pray for a ideologically pure dictator who will ignore the will of the voters...for their own good.  Government may be a machine but I see it as a reflection of the voters.
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2013, 08:17:00 AM »
All those words. Simplify, simplify. POLITICS SUCK! 

It's not apathy it's ignorance that afflicts us. Generations in government schools. All the rest are effects. Liberalism, affirmative action, political correctness, bloated budgets, deteriorating mores. Fix education and you fix America. There! Capt. Obvious to the rescue!

Now that our navel we have gazed it's time to kick some establishment butt in the coming new year and elect conservative/libertarian/constitutionalists at all levels of local, state, federal gov! From dogcatcher to senate. We owe future generations nothing less.
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2013, 08:28:16 AM »
All those words. Simplify, simplify. POLITICS SUCK! 

It's not apathy it's ignorance that afflicts us. Generations in government schools. All the rest are effects. Liberalism, affirmative action, political correctness, bloated budgets, deteriorating mores. Fix education and you fix America. There! Capt. Obvious to the rescue!

Now that our navel we have gazed it's time to kick some establishment butt in the coming new year and elect conservative/libertarian/constitutionalists at all levels of local, state, federal gov! From dogcatcher to senate. We owe future generations nothing less.

I don't know that the fix lies in getting different politicians. New politicians will just adapt the message to get elected, then maybe when elected will simply revert on public displays of virtuous and righteous outrage at "the way things are done in DC" to maintain support from those who helped him get elected while they do things the way things are done in DC when the cameras are off.

I think that it is "course of human events" time again.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2013, 08:32:23 AM by Luis Gonzalez »
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2013, 08:35:07 AM »
All those words. Simplify, simplify. POLITICS SUCK! 

It's not apathy it's ignorance that afflicts us. Generations in government schools. All the rest are effects. Liberalism, affirmative action, political correctness, bloated budgets, deteriorating mores. Fix education and you fix America. There! Capt. Obvious to the rescue!


Refreshing.  Thank you. 

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2013, 08:49:58 AM »
All those words. Simplify, simplify. POLITICS SUCK! 

BTW... this notion of "simplify, simplify" is either part of, or an indication of what ails us.

This notion that complex messages need to be dumbed down in order to be better absorbed by the populace feeds into a politician's tactic.

People need to fully understand the complex issues, otherwise they will simply vote for the guy who promises that there is hope in change.

The establishment will not give up its power as a result of simple elections.

« Last Edit: December 27, 2013, 08:50:30 AM by Luis Gonzalez »
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

Offline Bigun

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2013, 09:38:11 AM »
All those words. Simplify, simplify. POLITICS SUCK! 

It's not apathy it's ignorance that afflicts us. Generations in government schools. All the rest are effects. Liberalism, affirmative action, political correctness, bloated budgets, deteriorating mores. Fix education and you fix America. There! Capt. Obvious to the rescue!

Now that our navel we have gazed it's time to kick some establishment butt in the coming new year and elect conservative/libertarian/constitutionalists at all levels of local, state, federal gov! From dogcatcher to senate. We owe future generations nothing less.

“No people will tamely surrender their Liberties, nor can any be easily subdued, when knowledge is diffused and Virtue is preserved. On the Contrary, when People are universally ignorant, and debauched in their Manners, they will sink under their own weight without the Aid of foreign Invaders. “

Samuel Adams, letter to James Warren, November 4, 1775


“Nothing is more certain than that a general profligacy and corruption of manners make a people ripe for destruction. A good form of government may hold the rotten materials together for some time, but beyond a certain pitch, even the best constitution will be ineffectual, and slavery must ensue.”

John Witherspoon, The Dominion of Providence Over the Passions of Men, 1776

"Nothing is more essential to the establishment of manners in a State than that all persons employed in places of power and trust must be men of unexceptionable characters. "

Samuel Adams, letter to James Warren, November 4, 1775


"Liberty and security in government depend not on the limits, which the rulers may please to assign to the exercise of their own powers, but on the boundaries, within which their powers are circumscribed by the constitution. With us, the powers of magistrates, call them by whatever name you please, are the grants of the people . . . The supreme power is in them; and in them, even when a constitution is formed, and government is in operation, the supreme power still remains. A portion of their authority they, indeed, delegate; but they delegate that portion in whatever manner, in whatever measure, for whatever time, to whatever persons, and on whatever conditions they choose to fix."

U.S. Supreme Court Justice James Wilson (Lectures, 1790-1791)

« Last Edit: December 27, 2013, 09:49:41 AM by Bigun »

Offline Bigun

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2013, 09:53:34 AM »
I don't know that the fix lies in getting different politicians. New politicians will just adapt the message to get elected, then maybe when elected will simply revert on public displays of virtuous and righteous outrage at "the way things are done in DC" to maintain support from those who helped him get elected while they do things the way things are done in DC when the cameras are off.

I think that it is "course of human events" time again.

That may well be but even then the ONLY thing that is going to change anything is a return to governance under the Constitution!

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #21 on: December 27, 2013, 04:19:15 PM »
That may well be but even then the ONLY thing that is going to change anything is a return to governance under the Constitution!

Or a whole new Constitution.
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #22 on: December 27, 2013, 04:39:15 PM »
Or a whole new Constitution.

There is nothing wrong with the original.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline Bigun

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2013, 04:47:13 PM »
There is nothing wrong with the original.

 :amen:  :amen:  :amen:

The only thing wrong with it is that we haven't used it in a very long time! The current administration amply demonstrates the need for fixing that!

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Politico...Who will survive? 2014's top primaries
« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2013, 04:54:10 PM »
There is nothing wrong with the original.
Tell that to Mark Levin.


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