Author Topic: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014  (Read 644 times)

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Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« on: December 26, 2013, 10:05:50 AM »
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304020704579278070870231080

It's time to see how well I did with my predictions for 2013 and to offer a set of 2014 forecasts.

I got 10 predictions for this year right. President Obama's job approval rating did drop—from 53% at year's start to 40% this week. There was a new administration scandal, the most significant being the IRS targeting of conservative groups. And ObamaCare's implementation was indeed "ragged and ugly" and "a continuing political advantage to Republicans" as forecast.

There was no grand budget bargain with entitlement reform. Venezuela's Hugo Chávez did die. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won handily and the Virginia gubernatorial race was closer (2.6%) than many experts predicted. House Judiciary Committee Republicans are working on immigration reform while the comprehensive Senate bill backed by Mr. Obama is stalled. Hillary Clinton is now the front-runner in 2016 polls while the Obama girls got a new puppy.

Four predictions were wrong: unemployment hit 7% instead of 8%; Syria's Bashar Assad remains in power; Fidel Castro is still alive and President and Mrs. George W. Bush got a granddaughter, not a grandson. In one instance, the results were half-right. The debt ceiling was raised, but Mr. Obama wasn't forced to make spending cuts in return.

So what does my crystal ball say for 2014? Mr. Obama's Gallup disapproval rating will end higher than this week's 53%. Republicans will keep the House with a modest pickup of 4-6 seats. The GOP will most likely end up with 50 or 51 Senate seats (in the former case, keeping Vice President Joe Biden fully occupied for two years presiding over the chamber). Control of the Senate may not be decided until December's Louisiana runoff. Propelled by union contributions, Democrats will outspend Republicans overall in House and Senate races.

Republicans will lose a net of one or two of their 30 governorships. They'll add to their numbers in statewide offices and state legislatures and see more Latino, Asian-American, African-American and women Republicans elected up and down the ballot.

Every Republican senator and virtually every representative challenged in a primary as insufficiently conservative will win. In reaction to ObamaCare, GOP political divisions are giving way to unity. Tens of millions more Americans will lose their coverage and find that new ObamaCare plans have higher premiums, larger deductibles and fewer doctors. Enrollment numbers will be smaller than projected and budget outlays will be higher. The White House will blame insurers and Republicans for the law's continuing failures.

At year's end, Kathleen Sebelius will still be HHS Secretary. Support for ObamaCare will drop below 30%, causing congressional Democrats to clamber for major changes and delays. The administration will resist most such ideas, except lifting the individual mandate penalty for 2014.

It won't be all sweetness and light for the GOP, however. Republicans will debate joining rebellious Democrats in gutting and delaying elements of ObamaCare or leaving it alone.

The White House will be even more hard-edged and partisan— and not just because of John Podesta's addition as counselor. Mr. Obama will do what he does when in trouble: attack. Expect more liberals to blame criticism of his actions on racism. The president's willingness to ignore or unilaterally alter provisions of laws on the statute books—otherwise known as lawlessness—will be challenged by a growing number of successful lawsuits.

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan will increase his already considerable influence in the House, taking the lead on GOP antipoverty efforts and presenting the most serious comprehensive health-care plan congressional Republicans have offered.

Overseas, the Syrian civil war will be to Mr. Obama what Rwandan genocide was to the Clinton administration: a moral stain. Despite more American concessions, the Iranian nuclear deal will collapse as that country refuses to curtail its uranium enrichment. The administration will resign itself to a nuclear Iran and shift to "containment," further eroding U.S. credibility with Middle East allies. The new Afghan government will sign a Status of Forces Agreement, keeping Mr. Obama from squandering progress there as he did victory in Iraq by failing to get such an agreement (though Baghdad wanted one). North Korea's Kim Jong Un will test another nuclear device.

Outside of politics: "Duck Dynasty" will set another cable viewership record. Miley Cyrus will fade as a cultural phenomenon. Sandra Bullock will win an Oscar for "Gravity." Peyton Manning will win a fifth MVP award and the Seattle Seahawks their first Lombardi Trophy.

ChemicalEngineer

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2013, 01:34:38 PM »
Karl Rove is a brilliant strategist.  Love your moniker, LipstickonaHillary.  I often say when things get really tough, "Life's a Hillary."

I give you permission to use it as your own.

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2013, 02:01:06 PM »
Thanks ChemicalEngineer--I shall!   :beer:

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2013, 02:45:25 PM »
Rove's prediction...:

"Every Republican senator and virtually every representative challenged in a primary as insufficiently conservative will win."

...is the one which will make or break his credibility. And it will signal the strength, or lack of strength, held in the Tea Party movement.
#NeverHillary

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2013, 03:10:28 PM »
Rove's prediction...:

"Every Republican senator and virtually every representative challenged in a primary as insufficiently conservative will win."

...is the one which will make or break his credibility. And it will signal the strength, or lack of strength, held in the Tea Party movement.

McConnell, Cornyn, and Enzi will win, for sure. If McConnell can beat back Bevins (and he will), none of the other challengers stand much of a chance.

The key will be to watch how much money outfits like Heritage for Action and Senate Conservative Fund actually spend unseating Republican incumbents instead of targeting Democrats.
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Offline Cincinnatus

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2013, 03:37:50 PM »
If McConnell can beat back Bevins (and he will), none of the other challengers stand much of a chance.

Maybe. Each state has its own peculiar circumstances. But even more than that, should "McConnell...beat back Bevins" will the Bevin supporters turn out for him in the general election, and without them can McConnell be reelected?
We shall never be abandoned by Heaven while we act worthy of its aid ~~ Samuel Adams

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2013, 03:42:42 PM »
If McConnell can beat back Bevins (and he will), none of the other challengers stand much of a chance.

Maybe. Each state has its own peculiar circumstances. But even more than that, should "McConnell...beat back Bevins" will the Bevin supporters turn out for him in the general election, and without them can McConnell be reelected?

If they don't, then everyone will clearly see that the Tea Party is about ideological purity in the Republican Party FIRST with defeating Democrats somewhere way down the list of priorities.  Not voting for McConnell in the general will be a vote for Grimes.
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Offline raml

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2013, 04:21:11 PM »
Yes but a vote for McCononell is a vote for a democrat too so what is the difference party name doesn't get us anywhere the rhinos aren't real republicans. Rhinos are democrats so I will never vote for a rhino again and if Rove and the republican party leaders don't wake up the party will never win again and you know what if we don't get conservatives leading in this country it will go to hell anyway so me and many of the voters out here won't be voting if rhinos are on the ticket.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #8 on: December 26, 2013, 04:27:27 PM »
Yes but a vote for McCononell is a vote for a democrat too so what is the difference party name doesn't get us anywhere the rhinos aren't real republicans. Rhinos are democrats so I will never vote for a rhino again and if Rove and the republican party leaders don't wake up the party will never win again and you know what if we don't get conservatives leading in this country it will go to hell anyway so me and many of the voters out here won't be voting if rhinos are on the ticket.

"A vote for McCononell(sic) is a vote for a democrat too".   

Dumbest post of the day, the week, and maybe the month.  McConnell is a solid conservative, as is Cornyn, Enzi, and most of the other GOP Senators up for re-election.

If you want Democrats to keep the Senate, just withhold your vote from Republicans in 2014, but the shut the hell up when you get what you want.
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Offline Cincinnatus

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2013, 04:36:32 PM »
Yes but a vote for McCononell is a vote for a democrat too so what is the difference party name doesn't get us anywhere the rhinos aren't real republicans. Rhinos are democrats so I will never vote for a rhino again and if Rove and the republican party leaders don't wake up the party will never win again and you know what if we don't get conservatives leading in this country it will go to hell anyway so me and many of the voters out here won't be voting if rhinos are on the ticket.

Well said, Raml. Why vote for the pale imitation when you may as well elect the real thing? Besides if the anti-McConnell voters stay home, and despite the hysteria present they are not all Tea Partiers (would that they were), it will serve notice to the other RINOs we have had enough.
We shall never be abandoned by Heaven while we act worthy of its aid ~~ Samuel Adams

Offline evadR²

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2013, 05:06:01 PM »
"A vote for McCononell(sic) is a vote for a democrat too".   

Dumbest post of the day, the week, and maybe the month.  McConnell is a solid conservative, as is Cornyn, Enzi, and most of the other GOP Senators up for re-election.

If you want Democrats to keep the Senate, just withhold your vote from Republicans in 2014, but then shut the hell up when you get what you want.
yeah..that didn't work out too well when pubbies refused to vote for  ::::gasp:::: a mormon. Look at the tragedy that has befallen this once great nation due to THAT strategy. We really showed 'em.
I'm all for extinguishing the political life of all RINOs, so if a solid conservative can win the primary, GREAT!
But I can't see the percentage in the "stay at home" protesting strategy. It just seems crazy to me..
but, JMHO.

The dems have a real plan for continued control...forever.  It's diabolical but it's a solid winning plan. 
Amnesty (8 to 10 million votes), free shit forever, sponsoring fake libertarians to split the conservative vote, fraud, a permanent dependent underclass base.....it goes on and on.

What's our plan?  Purity?? 
Republicans are going to become extinct if we don't wake up.
November 6, 2012, a day in infamy...the death of a republic as we know it.

Online andy58-in-nh

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2013, 05:27:30 PM »
yeah..that didn't work out too well when pubbies refused to vote for  ::::gasp:::: a mormon. Look at the tragedy that has befallen this once great nation due to THAT strategy. We really showed 'em.
I'm all for extinguishing the political life of all RINOs, so if a solid conservative can win the primary, GREAT!
But I can't see the percentage in the "stay at home" protesting strategy. It just seems crazy to me..
but, JMHO.

The dems have a real plan for continued control...forever.  It's diabolical but it's a solid winning plan. 
Amnesty (8 to 10 million votes), free shit forever, sponsoring fake libertarians to split the conservative vote, fraud, a permanent dependent underclass base.....it goes on and on.

What's our plan?  Purity?? 
Republicans are going to become extinct if we don't wake up.

As a practical matter, you're right. In the vast majority of cases, we are going to have to vote for the Republican or at least for "the rightward most viable candidate" as Bill Buckley once put it. Holding your nose when voting is unpleasant, and I hate it. But the threat we face is worse.

The Progressive Left is expert at the strategy of division and conquest, and it would be of enormous value to have a GOP Senate for the last two years of Obama's term, if only to halt the Left's march toward central control and planning of every aspect of everyone's life.   

That said, the Republican Party needs to decide, and soon, what it truly stands for. Among its leaders are some (McConnell and McCain: I'm talking about you) who stand for nothing other than extending their own political ambitions. I would not mind seeing them exposed to primary challenges. 

The national party apparatus, for its part is still very much a creature of Washington, DC, and needs to learn how to appeal to people on the outside of the government bubble, whose hopes and dreams are being crushed by what transpires on the inside.  Too many of them are looking to government for the answer, and need to learn or relearn that government is the source of the problem.

Republicans also need to learn how to take off the gloves and throw meaningful punches without fear. That only happens when you believe in what you're fighting for.
Liberalism isn't really about making the world a better place. It's about reassuring the elites that they are good people for wanting to rule over it.

Online Bigun

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2013, 05:46:43 PM »
If you keep on doing what you've always done you are going to keep on getting what you've always got!

And that is a FACT!

To HELL with RINOS  everywhere!
« Last Edit: December 26, 2013, 05:47:18 PM by Bigun »
“It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere.” —Voltaire

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Rove: My Fearless Political Predictions for 2014
« Reply #13 on: December 26, 2013, 06:26:56 PM »
Yes but a vote for McCononell is a vote for a democrat too so what is the difference party name doesn't get us anywhere the rhinos aren't real republicans. Rhinos are democrats so I will never vote for a rhino again and if Rove and the republican party leaders don't wake up the party will never win again and you know what if we don't get conservatives leading in this country it will go to hell anyway so me and many of the voters out here won't be voting if rhinos are on the ticket.

Well said, Raml. Why vote for the pale imitation when you may as well elect the real thing? Besides if the anti-McConnell voters stay home, and despite the hysteria present they are not all Tea Partiers (would that they were), it will serve notice to the other RINOs we have had enough.

All it will prove is that the Tea Party has lost its power to influence elections. It will also confirm that the primary objective of Tea Partiers is defeating any Republican who is not 100% in line with Tea Party demands.

The Tea Party has lost a couple of rounds of internal Republican politics and is less popular than ever.  In other words, the TP is not coming from a position of leverage.  All it will take is TP refusal to support Republicans they disagree with in 2014 and they're done.
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