Author Topic: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover  (Read 679 times)

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SPQR

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The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« on: December 18, 2013, 06:02:53 PM »
Over the last few decades space satellites have become big business. As of 2012 there about 1,000 active satellites in orbit, and nearly half of them are American. About 75 percent of all satellites are non-military (most of them commercial, the rest government non-military birds.) Since 2001 satellite industry revenues more than doubled, from $83 billion (in 2012 dollars) a year to $189 billion last year. The cost of the satellites is only eight percent of annual satellite revenues. About four percent of the money comes from launching all those satellites and 36 percent of those launches are military. The U.S. has about 35 percent of the launch business, mainly because of the requirement that U.S. classified satellites be launched by American rockets.

The actual number of satellites being launched went down last year; to 81 compared to 90 in 2011. The fewer satellites being launched are more capable, reliable and longer-lasting. About half the satellite launches last year (and two-thirds of the satellites) were for communications, which generates the most income (mostly for TV, followed by data). The U.S. remains the major manufacturer of commercial satellites, with about 60 percent of the market. 

The Russian Sputnik was the first satellite ever put in orbit in 1957. The U.S. followed in 1958. Since then, ten other nations have done the same. France launched its first satellite in 1965, Japan and China in 1970, Britain in 1971, and India in 1980. Israel launched its first satellite in 1988. Ukraine did so in 1995. Iran claims to have put a satellite in orbit recently, but there is no conclusive proof. North Korea put a dead (non-responsive) satellite up in December 2012 and South Korea followed with a successful launch of a very active satellite a month later.

In 2013 China launched 20 satellites and by the end of the decade expect to have 200 satellites in orbit (about a fifth of the total and nearly half as many as the United States). At that point China expects to be launching 30 satellites a year and accounting for over a quarter of the worldwide launch capability. All this momentum has been the result of a quarter century of effort and an enormous spurt of activity in the last two years. In the two decades after 1990 China carried out 30 commercial satellite launches, putting 36 satellites in orbit. Now China puts that many satellites up in 18 months. 

China's main satellite launcher, the "Long March" rocket, is based on Russian designs, meaning it is simple, cheap and reliable. This has made China a major player in the satellite launching business. China competes on price. The U.S. Space Shuttle was retired because it was the most expensive way get stuff into orbit. Satellites sent up via the Space Shuttle cost $25 million a ton. The Russians and Chinese will do it for $3-6 million a ton. But insurance can more than double that cost if there have been a number of recent failures with Russian and Chinese boosters. This keeps more reliable American and European boosters in business. The Long March has a failure rate of about six percent, which was a little higher than twice the rate for the most used Russian launcher. The Space Shuttle failure rate was two percent, as were most Western satellite launchers.

 The Chinese Long March can put 9.5 tons in low earth orbit and 5.5 tons in a high one (geostationary transfer orbit). The Chinese took their time to perfect Long March, requiring 28 years to make the first fifty launches, and nine years for the next fifty. So far, Long March has carried out some 164 launches so far.


http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htspace/articles/20131218.aspx

Offline rustynail

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2013, 06:30:54 PM »
Thank you Bill Clinton.

SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2013, 06:31:57 PM »

Offline Chieftain

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2013, 06:40:54 PM »
The Chinese are determined to land another crew on the moon and are actively working in that direction.  That said, the Chinese also have a long, long track record of spectacular failures in their space program, so until they actually succeed I won't get overly worried....


SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2013, 06:43:49 PM »
The Chinese are determined to land another crew on the moon and are actively working in that direction.  That said, the Chinese also have a long, long track record of spectacular failures in their space program, so until they actually succeed I won't get overly worried....

Its a fairly recent developed program. We had our problems when we started our program.Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai decided on July 14, 1967 that the PRC should not be left behind, and therefore initiated China's own crewed space program
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 06:45:32 PM by SPQR »

Offline Oceander

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2013, 09:53:27 PM »
If the Chinese want to take the really long, strategic, view, they'll focus on getting onto the Moon and thence into the asteroids, not simply on trying to control orbital space.

SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2013, 09:54:34 PM »
If the Chinese want to take the really long, strategic, view, they'll focus on getting onto the Moon and thence into the asteroids, not simply on trying to control orbital space.

Orbital space is the next battlefield. They realize that realize that. We realize that.That is why the USAF and DARPA is spending billions of dollars on it. Why did the USAF develop the X-37.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 09:56:30 PM by SPQR »

Offline Oceander

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2013, 09:56:29 PM »
Orbital space is the next battlefield. They realize that.

If you control the Moon and/or the asteroid fields between Mars and Jupiter, you control all space around the Earth, and the Earth as well.

Then again, the Chinese seem to have learned a thing or two about fighting on the economic level, not the military level; get to the asteroids and you have a source of raw materials to beggar the imagination.

SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2013, 09:58:33 PM »
If you control the Moon and/or the asteroid fields between Mars and Jupiter, you control all space around the Earth, and the Earth as well.

Then again, the Chinese seem to have learned a thing or two about fighting on the economic level, not the military level; get to the asteroids and you have a source of raw materials to beggar the imagination.

Low Earth orbit will be the next battlefield. That is reason the USAF spend billions of dollars on the X-37. They want a permanent spacecraft that can strike any target on the planet in one hour. Space travel for scientific use is just an ancillary reason. Our Space Program was just an excuse to test new missile programs that we were testing at the time like the Atlas and Titan missile programs just like the Russians and their space program.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 10:02:01 PM by SPQR »

Offline Oceander

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2013, 10:03:37 PM »
Low Earth orbit will be the next battlefield. That is reason the USAF spend billions of dollars on the X-37. They want a permanent spacecraft that can strike any target on the planet in one hour. Space travel for scientific use is just an ancillary reason. Our Space Program was just an excuse to test new missile programs that we were testing at the time like the Atlas and Titan missile programs just like the Russians and their space program.

The Chinese don't seem primarily interested in going to war first; they'd rather beat you economically and keep the military option in the pocket in case the economics don't work out.

SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2013, 10:05:06 PM »
The Chinese don't seem primarily interested in going to war first; they'd rather beat you economically and keep the military option in the pocket in case the economics don't work out.

They want to extend their sphere of influence in east Asia as far as they can get away with. That "air defense zone" that they set up was just one step.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 10:06:32 PM by SPQR »

Offline Oceander

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2013, 10:06:26 PM »
They want to extend their sphere on influence in east Asia as far as they can get away with. That "air defense zone" that they set up was just one step.

Of course they do; they're not stupid.  But their practice in the last 20 or 30 years has been to fight a distinctly economic war.

SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2013, 10:08:35 PM »
Of course they do; they're not stupid.  But their practice in the last 20 or 30 years has been to fight a distinctly economic war.

They are not stupid but they want to be an economic and military influence in east Asia. That is why South Korea, Japan and Taiwan is purchasing every American made military hardware they can lay their hands on. They know they cannot be trusted.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 10:09:25 PM by SPQR »

Offline Oceander

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #13 on: December 18, 2013, 10:14:42 PM »
They are not stupid but they want to be an economic and military influence in east Asia. That is why South Korea, Japan and Taiwan is purchasing every American made military hardware they can lay their hands on. They know they cannot be trusted.

And the Chinese want to make sure everyone believes they cannot be trusted.

SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #14 on: December 18, 2013, 10:17:34 PM »
And the Chinese want to make sure everyone believes they cannot be trusted.

They cannot be trusted, period. They are not apart to any arms control treaty. They are not even apart of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty we signed with the Russians. So we have to go by their word that they are on the level.

Offline Oceander

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #15 on: December 18, 2013, 10:18:23 PM »
They cannot be trusted, period. They are not apart to any arms control treaty. They are not even apart of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty we signed with the Russians. So we have to go by their word that they are on the level.

They're not trusted - and they like it that way.

SPQR

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Re: The Orbital Empire Braces For The Chinese Takeover
« Reply #16 on: December 18, 2013, 10:23:05 PM »
They're not trusted - and they like it that way.
 

I agree. That is why any arms control treaty that is negotiated in the future involving Russia,China must be included. Their free ride is over.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/31/AR2010123104108.html
« Last Edit: December 18, 2013, 10:25:10 PM by SPQR »


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