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Offline sinkspur

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It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« on: December 12, 2013, 02:38:14 PM »
http://townhall.com/columnists/derekhunter/2013/12/12/its-time-for-republicans-to-think-strategically-n1761282


It's time for Republicans to think strategically

December 12, 2013
Derek Hunter

On Tuesday, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., revealed their budget plan to the world. I would say it was immediately met with complaints, but those complaints started before it was introduced. Is it perfect? Absolutely not. But are there other plans? No.

Outside groups called for opposing it before they’d read it, Members of Congress said they’d vote against it before they knew what was in it. I’d like to take these people with me to buy lottery tickets since they seem to have some form of clairvoyance.

I get the anger of conservatives, I’m right there with them. But there comes a point when you have to accept reality. Reality won’t change simply because you wish it to be different. You have to accept what is and work to make it what you want.

As strong as Republicans’ position is in the polls right now, polls don’t matter at this point. The election is too far away. Democrats won’t do what is best for the country right now because they don’t have to.

Buy when we get closer to the election, things could change. Today, it looks like Republicans are in great shape to retain the House and perhaps to retake the Senate. But if there’s one thing Republicans excel at it is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and many are positioning themselves to do just that.

There’s a time for drawing a line and there’s a time to be strategic, and now is a time to be strategic.

The Democrats are on the defensive over the continued failures of Obamacare and are desperate to change the subject. A major budget battle or a fight over extending unemployment benefits not only would change the subject, it would hurt Republicans. And when your opponent is out of ammunition you don’t rearm them. Yet that’s what many of these groups and members are poised to do if they vote these issues down.

The budget deal is not good. It’s not conservative. We all wish it could be better. But nothing better is coming out of this Congress. Republicans need to swallow hard and take the deal.

Republicans have a choice: Fund the government, raise the debt ceiling and extend unemployment benefits past the election or spend time before the election fighting – and losing – those battles rather than pointing out the failures of Obamacare. It can’t be both.

Call me a squish if you like, but anything positive that happens will be credited to President Obama, not only because he’ll take the credit but because the media will give it to him. Republicans could pass a budget that facilitates the creation of 10 million jobs and the stories would be “President Obama Creates 10 Million Jobs.” That’s not only bias; that’s the power of the presidency.

This, in turn, would help Democrats even though it was done with a Republican budget. But a Republican/conservative budget simply isn’t going pass with the Democrats controlling the Senate and Barack Obama in the White House.

Republicans have to accept that fact and work with in it.

They can either basically extend what we have now (which the Ryan/Murray plan essentially does, outside of a few minor changes), raise the debt limit till December 2014 and extend unemployment benefits, or spend the next year being beaten about the head and neck for causing a government shutdown, trying to force a default and not caring about the poor.

Is doing these things now ideal? Absolutely not. But is it strategically smart? Absolutely.

And we all know they’re going to happen anyway because Democrats have demonstrated a willingness to take the country to the brink to get their way. These points are minor in the grand scheme of things, and all are ripe to be changed in the next Congress.

I don’t call for it often, or lightly, but Republicans should punt here. There’s nothing that can’t be changed; in fact, nothing that won’t have to be changed because these are all temporary. A strategic defensive move now will keep Republicans on the offensive through the election.

I’d even consider throwing in raising the minimum wage, but over a longer time horizon. Without that, Democrats really have nothing but their usual charges – that Republicans are racist, sexist, homophobes – but those no longer carry the weight they used to with voters, especially in Obama’s economy. Democrats love and effectively play the victim card, but an unemployed or underemployed victim is concerned about being unemployed first.

And let’s not pretend Republicans probably won’t cave on the minimum wage eventually anyway. Take it off the table.

Democrats have a set number of bats they use to beat up Republicans, and Republicans keep giving them those bats. But rarely do Republicans have a bat with which to hit back. Obamacare is a huge bat, perhaps the biggest they’ve ever had.

Barring a major event, the 2014 election is Republicans’ to lose. Arming the Democrats with their time-tested weapons will only allow them to stand a chance to win in November, whereas allowing them small victories now will leave them with nothing but the reality of the economy they’ve created, the health care system they’ve created. They can’t defend those.

It’s time to take away the noise, at least temporarily, and leave the emperor standing there with no clothes and an empty quiver. You don’t give him more arrows.
From  "A Shining City on a Hill"

To "A global laughingstock"

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2013, 12:25:14 AM »
Generally speaking, I agree with the article.  I most definitely agree that Republicans seem singularly incapable of thinking strategically.  I also agree that, in general, the best that republicans can probably get right now is a detente that essentially maintains the status quo for the time being (i.e., until, at the least, the 2014 congressional elections).  That being said, I do not think that republicans like Boehner and McCain are acting strategically in the sense meant by the article.  Boehner, McCain, and many other so-called moderates in the GOP aren't using compromise with the democrats as a strategic tool to keep the democrats from being able to distract people from the unfolding Obamacare disaster, nor as a means of slow-walking Congress to the next elections in order to minimize the amount of additional damage the democrats can do, all while avoiding the appearance of being merely obstructionists and ideologues.  No, unfortunately, republicans like Boehner and McCain seem to treat compromise itself as the goal to be achieved, that compromise for the sake of compromise is an independently valuable goal for republicans to achieve.  That is, their goal appears to be to get the reputation of being agreeable people who are team players, without respect to the game that team is playing.

One of the other things that I find sorely lacking in most republican politicians, moderates and conservatives alike, is the ability to prioritize one's principles and goals in order to identify those that are fundamental and to be defended even at great cost and those that, while definitely desirable, can be compromised without fundamentally changing who or what one is.  That is a skill that Reagan had in buckets, and one that was probably responsible for his ability to accomplish much of what he accomplished.  When most of the members of a political party lack this skill you get a situation that resembles the current situation:  conservatives who refuse to compromise one iota on anything because they treat all of the GOP's principles and goals as equally fundamental and moderates who will compromise everything to whatever degree necessary to ensure that an agreement of any sort with the democrats is reached because they treat all of the GOP's principles and goals as equally trivial and subject to unlimited compromise.  Both groups end up sidelining the GOP thereby effectively betraying the very principles they claim to stand for:  conservatives who cannot, or will not, compromise an iota on anything end up marginalizing the GOP and keeping it politically impotent, thereby making it almost impossible to enact any of the party's principles or goals; moderates who can, and will, compromise everything about anything end up becoming rubber-stamps, ensuring that what gets enacted are democrat party principles and goals, not the GOP's principles and goals.  Until that changes, the GOP will never get back the political power needed to get at least some important GOP principles and goals enacted, and both sides, conservative and moderate, are equally to blame for this sorry state of affairs.

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2013, 12:53:55 AM »
Boehner, McCain, and many other so-called moderates in the GOP...

This guy I used to work with spent most of his time at work being highly critical of upper management. He constantly questioned their ability to execute the duties of their job, telling everyone how they did it wrong.

His favorite saying was "the wrong people always get promoted".

Eventually, he made it a point to tell the owner of the company what he thought about his supervisors, suggesting that he could do a far better job than they could.

He was fired a short time after that. Everyone believed that upper management fired him for having the nerve of attacking them to the owner, but I happen to know that wasn't the case.

The owner had him fired.

Why?

Because he didn't appreciate an employee coming into his office and telling him that he was incapable of choosing the right people to run his company.

Boehner, McCain et al, are elected by the people in their States.

Reid, Pelosi et al, also elected by the people in their States.

That means that the people of the US, by and large, are electing GOP moderates or Democrats to run the country.

You cannot discount or ignore that and expect to accomplish anything in DC.

The people that you detest are there because they were sent there by the people of their States to represent them.

So when you pass judgement on them, call them names, accuse them of treason etc, you are in fact insulting the people who vote for them.

How in the Hell do conservatives ever expect to make headway in those States, and by extension in DC, by basically telling the voters that they are incompetent idiots who have elected incompetent idiots time and time again to Congress?

Conservatives need a better marketing plan.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2013, 12:54:54 AM by Luis Gonzalez »
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2013, 02:01:13 AM »
Boehner, McCain et al, are elected by the people in their States.

Reid, Pelosi et al, also elected by the people in their States.

That means that the people of the US, by and large, are electing GOP moderates or Democrats to run the country.

You cannot discount or ignore that and expect to accomplish anything in DC.

The people that you detest are there because they were sent there by the people of their States to represent them.

So when you pass judgement on them, call them names, accuse them of treason etc, you are in fact insulting the people who vote for them.

How in the Hell do conservatives ever expect to make headway in those States, and by extension in DC, by basically telling the voters that they are incompetent idiots who have elected incompetent idiots time and time again to Congress?

Conservatives need a better marketing plan.

Nothing will ever satisfy people with unrealistic expectations.

Offline DCPatriot

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2013, 02:51:36 AM »
Interesting take there...that we're to accept, "we're only doing what our voters want", when Conservatives see their elected officials bend over.   With smiling faces!

FOXNEWS rules cable.  Conservative talk radio rules that media.  FOX' programs sometimes have more viewers than all the others combined.   On re-run hours for chrissakes!

Now...do all FOXNEWS viewers share common POVs on all social issues?  No.   But we all know what going on in Washington, DC today is being done intentionally to the American People.

THAT'S the message that needs to be the backbone of any strategy for reaching the voter.   

Stop playing nice....we're literally fighting for our lives here.
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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2013, 08:18:26 AM »
I agree with everyone here that elections have consequences.  But how many of the Republicans who voted for this budget plan ran as moderates?  How many of them promised to rein in government spending and bring fiscal discipline to DC?  I dare say most of them ran as conservatives, but now govern as moderates.

Elections have consequences.  The upcoming election that interests me most is the 2014 GOP primary.  That is where the real action will be, because if conservatives can allow the party establishment to thumb its nose at us the way they have been, then we deserve what we get.
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2013, 09:43:53 AM »
I agree with everyone here that elections have consequences.  But how many of the Republicans who voted for this budget plan ran as moderates?  How many of them promised to rein in government spending and bring fiscal discipline to DC?  I dare say most of them ran as conservatives, but now govern as moderates.

Elections have consequences.  The upcoming election that interests me most is the 2014 GOP primary.  That is where the real action will be, because if conservatives can allow the party establishment to thumb its nose at us the way they have been, then we deserve what we get.

Campaigning to the ideological id of your Party and governing from the center of the national political spectrum is pretty much the standard in politics. It's what happens when you join a body of people with converging political imperatives and are faced with somehow structuring national policy.

When you have representatives from the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Oregon, Vermont, and Delaware in the same governing body as representatives from Alabama, North Dakota, Wyoming, Mississippi and Utah, what policies emerge, emerge from some point in the middle of those two widely diverging ends of the political spectrum.

Here's the problem...

When the other Party has more votes than you do (which has been the case for the last several years), the body will govern at best as a centrist, at worst as we saw in the partisan enactment of the ACA.

That's why I reject the notion that the solution to our problems is to replace GOP representatives to Congress with hard-core conservative candidates, because that doesn't give us numerical superiority, it just changes the ideological make-up of the Party and that is not enough to change DC.

If the entire GOP Congressional delegation in 2010 had been made up of hard-core conservatives, the ACA would have still been signed into law.

If conservatives are to prove to me that they are enough of a force to alter this nation's path, they need to prove to me that they can get done things that the GOP can't get done, and electing GOP representatives in States and Districts where GOP representatives are already in place doesn't make for a change.

I want to see the conservative Republican candidates knock Democrats out of their seats. THAT will make the entire nation sit up and take notice, and THAT will change the face of politics in the US.
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2013, 09:59:28 AM »
Interesting take there...that we're to accept, "we're only doing what our voters want", when Conservatives see their elected officials bend over.   With smiling faces!

FOXNEWS rules cable.  Conservative talk radio rules that media.  FOX' programs sometimes have more viewers than all the others combined.   On re-run hours for chrissakes!

Now...do all FOXNEWS viewers share common POVs on all social issues?  No.   But we all know what going on in Washington, DC today is being done intentionally to the American People.

THAT'S the message that needs to be the backbone of any strategy for reaching the voter.   

Stop playing nice....we're literally fighting for our lives here.

I like Ted Cruz, he's a belligerent bastard and a fighter.

Belligerence doesn't overcome numerical superiority. When you go down kicking and screaming, you still go down.

I guess my question to you is, why do you think people don't vote the same way that they dial their televisions and radios?

Why do FOX viewers, Rush listeners and Beck followers in Arizona continue to vote McCain into office?

Are FOX News, Rush and Beck broadcasting different shows into Arizona praising McCain as a conservative?

What's up with that?

Here's a little thing I've figured out recently.

People in the US detest Congress. The current Congressional disapproval rating stands at 80%.

But that can only mean that people disapprove of members of Congress from other States and Districts, because (by and large) they keep re-electing their own Congressional delegations year after year.

That 80% disapproval rating will not translate onto an 80% turn over ratio in 2014. In fact, I suspect that 80% plus of delegates seeking re-election will be re-elected.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2013, 10:23:45 AM by Luis Gonzalez »
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2013, 10:43:51 AM »
This guy I used to work with spent most of his time at work being highly critical of upper management. He constantly questioned their ability to execute the duties of their job, telling everyone how they did it wrong.

His favorite saying was "the wrong people always get promoted".

Eventually, he made it a point to tell the owner of the company what he thought about his supervisors, suggesting that he could do a far better job than they could.

He was fired a short time after that. Everyone believed that upper management fired him for having the nerve of attacking them to the owner, but I happen to know that wasn't the case.

The owner had him fired.

Why?

Because he didn't appreciate an employee coming into his office and telling him that he was incapable of choosing the right people to run his company.

Boehner, McCain et al, are elected by the people in their States.

Reid, Pelosi et al, also elected by the people in their States.

That means that the people of the US, by and large, are electing GOP moderates or Democrats to run the country.

You cannot discount or ignore that and expect to accomplish anything in DC.

The people that you detest are there because they were sent there by the people of their States to represent them.

So when you pass judgement on them, call them names, accuse them of treason etc, you are in fact insulting the people who vote for them.

How in the Hell do conservatives ever expect to make headway in those States, and by extension in DC, by basically telling the voters that they are incompetent idiots who have elected incompetent idiots time and time again to Congress?

Conservatives need a better marketing plan.

That doesn't mean that those moderates are good, nor that they really represent what we, collectively, want.  It could equally mean that these politicians are engaging in the same sort of pandering - and, quite frankly, bribery - of their electorate by promising to be "tough" on the budget, but to continue bringing the pork and spending home.  Drug addicts very rarely turn on their pushers, even as they recognize that the pusher is taking advantage of them.

Also, people may be electing them, but that merely demonstrates that the American people, by and large, have become stupid idiots, so-called low-info, or even no-info, voters who cast their votes for the same reason that votes in high school popularity contests are cast.

That being said, conservatives - and anyone else who's become disgusted with the pandering and enabling a lot of the moderate republicans in Congress are engaged in - defintely need to market themselves better.  It's not a matter of spin, it's a matter of explaining yourself to people in terms they can understand.  Unfortunately, conservatives - and many other republicans - tend to try and sell themselves based on what they don't like, on what they oppose, and not based on why their positions are better than those of their opponents.

For example, I hear way too much blather from conservatives about how we need to get tough on illegal aliens and lock down the borders; I hear precious little discussion of how to constructively deal with the current situation in a way that doesn't imply the necessity of pogroms, camps, and forced marches to the border (sorry, but those who want to "crack down" harshly on illegal immigrants and close the borders completely will inevitably, necessarily, have to resort to roundups, camps, and forced marches to the border).

No, I am not arguing for some sort of blanket amnesty without any consequences whatsoever, nor am I arguing for some sort of totally open borders policy, but I am arguing for the basic proposition that illegal aliens are human beings, that they are in the country, and that whatever else they may, or may not, deserve, they do deserve to be treated with basic human dignity, and that means they cannot simply be rounded up like cattle - or like vermin - herded into immigration detention camps, and then frog-marched to the border and pushed over the Rio Grande at the wrong end of an assault rifle.  And this goes doubly for minors.

I am arguing for something like a guest worker program to deal with those who want to come to the US to work.  Those who enter as guest workers would not be able to qualify for green-card status (or naturalization) unless they left the US and then re-applied for an immigrant visa.  They would also be required to provide a full set of finger prints and DNA to the FBI, to waive or consent to administrative searches based on something less than probable cause, and to report to a local immigration office once a year (or even every 6 months) to give details on their current employment and their current residential address, as well as any other pertinent information and contact details, such as a photograph for identification purposes.

I am also arguing for a limited legalization (not the same as general amnesty) of those who are already in the country illegally that would give them legal status in the country that would be the equivalent of guest worker status, but with limitations such as prohibiting individuals who entered as adults (or as minors who were, say, 16 years or older, because as a practical matter they're as capable as most adults of making adult decisions) from ever being able to qualify for naturalization or green-card status; people who entered when they were minors under the age of 16 would be given something like conditional green-card status that would ripen into green-card status within a set number of years provided that the minor behaves him/her self (e.g., doesn't commit any violent felonies), and allow them to eventually qualify for naturalization.

First off, this is definitely not the sort of amnesty democrats/liberals are selling; it contains many more restrictions and is largely intended to make sure that the US has as much information as possible about who's in the country and to make sure that those who come into the country on an expedited basis - it can take years and years for a person to be granted an immigrant visa - cannot "jump the line" and get the full benefits of being a US resident ahead of those who follow the traditional path to getting an immigrant visa.  For example, those who get expedited entry will have agreed to waive some of the constitutional protections that people who enter the normal way are entitled to; that would mean, for example, evidence that would normally be supressed under the Fourth Amendment would not be suppressed for someone with a guest-worker visa.

And how might this be sold?  To begin with, it could be sold as a humanitarian way of dealing with the problem of illegal immigrants that recognizes the practicalities, respects the humanity of those who are here illegally, and ensures that families are not broken up and that children who have never known anything other than the US are not forced into a completely foreign culture where they would most likely sink, not swim.  At the same time it could be sold as a response to illegal immigration that gives proper respect, and precedence, to those people who did the right thing and followed the law in getting an immigrant visa, even if it took them years to get that visa.  It could also be sold as a way of evening the field between legal workers and illegal workers by making sure that employers cannot get away with paying illegals significantly less than they pay legal workers and making sure that former illegal workers pay taxes the same as legal workers.  An additional way to sweeten the pot would be to give fuller benefits to individuals who demonstrate allegiance to the US by, for example, serving in the armed forces.

Another selling point would be the fact that a system like this would make it unnecessary for federal agents to engage in searches or dragnets to catch illegal immigrants or to stop and question people simply because they look like they might be illegals and happen to be in an area that illegals are known to frequent.  For example, there would no longer be a need to swoop down on factories and worksites to check everyone's immigration status.  This would address one of the real sticking points with many people who are here legally, including natural-born citizens, which is the concern - sometimes legitimate - that they're discriminated against because of their ethnic background.  Why?  Because the authorities wouldn't have to go searching for someone until and unless that person failed to show up at a local immigration office at the proper time and any guest worker (i.e., someone who would have been an illegal immigrant without guest worker status) who was arrested would be immediately identified as such once his fingerprints are checked in the national databases used to check every arrestee's record.  Furthermore, any search that hit on the record of a guest worker would immediately be forwarded to the immigration agency for review and possible deportation.

I am sure that I haven't hit all of the highlights and there are probably plenty of other issues that would have to be addressed, but this both achieves a practical measure of the immigration policies republicans tend to focus on in a way that respects the basic humanity of illegal immigrants, and allows republicans to sell themselves in a constructive, positive light rather than in the negative light that republicans currently use to sell their immigration policies.




Offline happyg

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2013, 10:53:58 AM »
I always voted for Boehner, and now, I wouldn't trust him to be dogcatcher. Most people I talk to feel the same way. I imagine Arizonans feel the same way about McCain. Most Americans didn't want him to be president, so it's only logical they would be complaining about him.

This country isn't a corporation, and the people have a voice, or should have a voice. The man at the top can't fire a citizen;  he is the one whose job is on the line. Your equation of a corporation is not comparable to government.

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2013, 10:56:28 AM »
I always voted for Boehner, and now, I wouldn't trust him to be dogcatcher. Most people I talk to feel the same way. I imagine Arizonans feel the same way about McCain. Most Americans didn't want him to be president, so it's only logical they would be complaining about him.

This country isn't a corporation, and the people have a voice, or should have a voice. The man at the top can't fire a citizen;  he is the one whose job is on the line. Your equation of a corporation is not comparable to government.

shareholders don't have a voice in the corporation they own a part of?

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2013, 10:58:01 AM »
I always voted for Boehner, and now, I wouldn't trust him to be dogcatcher. Most people I talk to feel the same way. I imagine Arizonans feel the same way about McCain. Most Americans didn't want him to be president, so it's only logical they would be complaining about him.

This country isn't a corporation, and the people have a voice, or should have a voice. The man at the top can't fire a citizen;  he is the one whose job is on the line. Your equation of a corporation is not comparable to government.

Yet, I bet you that McCain will be re-elected, and so will Boehner, and whether you like it or not. that is the people having a voice.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2013, 10:58:57 AM by Luis Gonzalez »
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2013, 11:00:43 AM »
Yet, I bet you that McCain will be re-elected, and so will Boehner, and whether you like it or not. that is the people having a voice.

There's no accounting for stupidity.  It's what got us into this mess in the first place.

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2013, 11:07:05 AM »
That doesn't mean that those moderates are good, nor that they really represent what we, collectively, want.  It could equally mean that these politicians are engaging in the same sort of pandering - and, quite frankly, bribery - of their electorate by promising to be "tough" on the budget, but to continue bringing the pork and spending home.  Drug addicts very rarely turn on their pushers, even as they recognize that the pusher is taking advantage of them.

Also, people may be electing them, but that merely demonstrates that the American people, by and large, have become stupid idiots, so-called low-info, or even no-info, voters who cast their votes for the same reason that votes in high school popularity contests are cast.

That being said, conservatives - and anyone else who's become disgusted with the pandering and enabling a lot of the moderate republicans in Congress are engaged in - defintely need to market themselves better.  It's not a matter of spin, it's a matter of explaining yourself to people in terms they can understand.  Unfortunately, conservatives - and many other republicans - tend to try and sell themselves based on what they don't like, on what they oppose, and not based on why their positions are better than those of their opponents.

Obama keeps saying that people don't like Obamacare because his administration and Democrats in general haven't delivered the message properly, yet they've been trying to deliver that message, in more forms and ways that I can  list, for years.

Is the problem with the messaging, or with the message?

Is the problem with conservatives the messaging or the message?

I'm starting to think that it is the message itself.
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2013, 11:08:24 AM »
There's no accounting for stupidity.  It's what got us into this mess in the first place.

So, you think that the way to get voters in Arizona to elect a conservative is to campaign on the fact that voters who've voted for McCain in the past are stupid?
“[Euthanasia] is what any State medical service has sooner or later got to face. If you are going to be kept alive in institutions run by and paid for by the State, you must accept the State’s right to economize when necessary …” The Ministry of Fear by Graham Green (New York: Penguin Books [1943] 2005, p. 165).

Online Oceander

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2013, 11:08:33 AM »
Obama keeps saying that people don't like Obamacare because his administration and Democrats in general haven't delivered the message properly, yet they've been trying to deliver that message, in more forms and ways that I can  list, for years.

Is the problem with the messaging, or with the message?

Is the problem with conservatives the messaging or the message?

I'm starting to think that it is the message itself.

With conservatives it's both.

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2013, 09:13:53 PM »
Yet, I bet you that McCain will be re-elected, and so will Boehner, and whether you like it or not. that is the people having a voice.
When McCain had a primary contest in 2010 with one JD Hayworth, conservative talk show jockey, a forum member from that state ASSURED us McCain would lose, because nobody they knew was voting for McCain.

A lot of people on forums form views of the world, by sharing with others of very like mind. They then conclude they must be in a majority, since everyone they know feels that way.

And living like that, one doesn't gain experience of listening to other viewpoints, and convincing others of theirs.

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2013, 09:15:35 PM »
When McCain had a primary contest in 2010 with one JD Hayworth, conservative talk show jockey, a forum member from that state ASSURED us McCain would lose, because nobody they knew was voting for McCain.

A lot of people on forums form views of the world, by sharing with others of very like mind. They then conclude they must be in a majority, since everyone they know feels that way.

And living like that, one doesn't gain experience of listening to other viewpoints, and convincing others of theirs.

And that isn't this forum, if for no other reason than that you're here, notwithstanding that at least some disagree with you at least once in a while.


On the other hand, was the widely-held belief that Romney would win merely another case of forum-induced group-think?
« Last Edit: December 15, 2013, 09:16:12 PM by Oceander »

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #18 on: December 16, 2013, 04:50:05 PM »

On the other hand, was the widely-held belief that Romney would win merely another case of forum-induced group-think?
I think forums lean too heavily on data which supports their desired outcome. Show a negative poll to a political forum, and they will say never to believe polls.

Show them their guy winning, and they are all in for it. That is what happened with Romney.

A poll from Des Moines in the news now, shows Cruz as the least popular with their sample group. Shows Ryan most popular.

Expect this to be soundly and roundly dismissed by the leading conservative sites, since it doesn't reinforce their current crush on Cruz.

Offline flowers

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #19 on: December 16, 2013, 06:52:48 PM »
bkmk


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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #20 on: December 16, 2013, 07:50:22 PM »
Quote
The budget deal is not good. It’s not conservative. We all wish it could be better

So let's get out there and vote for this baby.

Really?
We shall never be abandoned by Heaven while we act worthy of its aid ~~ Samuel Adams

Offline sinkspur

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #21 on: December 16, 2013, 08:02:19 PM »
I think forums lean too heavily on data which supports their desired outcome. Show a negative poll to a political forum, and they will say never to believe polls.

Show them their guy winning, and they are all in for it. That is what happened with Romney.

A poll from Des Moines in the news now, shows Cruz as the least popular with their sample group. Shows Ryan most popular.

Expect this to be soundly and roundly dismissed by the leading conservative sites, since it doesn't reinforce their current crush on Cruz.

Ted Cruz has a lot of work to do to rehabilitate himself into a candidate who can appeal to a broad audience.  Right now, he's keeping his head down, going to the Mandela funeral, and will likely seek to sponsor some bipartisan legislation.

Cruz is smart.  Very smart.  He appealed to his base with the shutdown, and knows he needs to move toward the center.  He'll do it, because he wants to be a viable presidential option.
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Offline happyg

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #22 on: December 16, 2013, 08:09:13 PM »
Ted Cruz has a lot of work to do to rehabilitate himself into a candidate who can appeal to a broad audience.  Right now, he's keeping his head down, going to the Mandela funeral, and will likely seek to sponsor some bipartisan legislation.

Cruz is smart.  Very smart.  He appealed to his base with the shutdown, and knows he needs to move toward the center.  He'll do it, because he wants to be a viable presidential option.

Cruz doesn't need rehabilitation. He's doing just fine. He appealed to his base because of conservatism. The shutdown had nothing to do with it. Of course, he needs to move to the center to appease the GOPe, but he's smarter than that. He actually knows how to get votes.

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #23 on: December 16, 2013, 10:31:49 PM »
I think forums lean too heavily on data which supports their desired outcome. Show a negative poll to a political forum, and they will say never to believe polls.

Show them their guy winning, and they are all in for it. That is what happened with Romney.

A poll from Des Moines in the news now, shows Cruz as the least popular with their sample group. Shows Ryan most popular.

Expect this to be soundly and roundly dismissed by the leading conservative sites, since it doesn't reinforce their current crush on Cruz.

I'm not speaking about just one forum - there was a general sense that Romney would win, far beyond just a few political fora - and yet, ....  That suggests that it wasn't some mythical group-think but rather some serious problem with the polling.

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Re: It's time for Republicans to think strategically
« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2013, 08:20:22 AM »
When McCain had a primary contest in 2010 with one JD Hayworth, conservative talk show jockey, a forum member from that state ASSURED us McCain would lose, because nobody they knew was voting for McCain.

A lot of people on forums form views of the world, by sharing with others of very like mind. They then conclude they must be in a majority, since everyone they know feels that way.

And living like that, one doesn't gain experience of listening to other viewpoints, and convincing others of theirs.

Exactly. Perfect example of the point you're making was Liberal-Spy. Very few even tolerated his presence here. Yet, we have to interact with liberals at home, at work and at the supermarket – so, what's the good of a talk forum if people only talk to themselves?
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