Author Topic: ‘Imagine America Without Los Angeles’: Expert Warns Southern California Isn’t Ready For Major Quake  (Read 1077 times)

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http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2013/12/11/imagine-america-without-los-angeles-expert-warns-southern-california-isnt-ready-for-major-quake/

‘Imagine America Without Los Angeles’: Expert Warns Southern California Isn’t Ready For Major Quake
December 11, 2013 10:40 PM

LOS ANGELES (CBSLA.com) — A leading earthquake expert has issued a dire warning to Californians about the expected impact of a major disruption to the San Andreas fault line.

The title of Dr. Lucy Jones’ lecture this week to the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco was “Imagine America without Los Angeles”.

As KCAL9′s Dave Bryan reports, Jones, a Science Advisor for Risk Reduction at the U.S. Geological Survey, says when the “Big One” hits Southern California, the damage could be much greater, and could last much longer, than most of us ever imagined.

“Loss of shelter, loss of schools, loss of jobs and emotional hardship. We are risking the ends of our cities,” she said during the presentation.

According to a USGS study called the “Shakeout Report”, when a high-magnitude earthquake rocks the San Andreas fault, the damage will go far beyond the collapsed buildings and freeways seen in the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

For example, L.A.-area supermarkets now depend on internet systems for warehousing and shipping food to stores, and the food is stored on the other side of the San Andreas fault.

“With the development of the internet and the new just-in-time economy, none of them store food on the Los Angeles side of the San Andreas anymore,” Jones said.

“So this is one more place where the development of the complexity of our modern society is creating new vulnerabilities as we face the big earthquakes.”

Fiber-optics is another vulnerability that is expected to be cut off when a disastrous earthquake hits the San Andreas fault.

“Two-thirds of the connectivity from Los Angeles to the rest of the world go through fiber-optic cables crossing the San Andreas fault,” Jones explained. “So we expect at the time of the earthquake when the fault moves, we will break these fiber-optic cables and two-thirds of the data capacity between L.A. and everyone else will disappear,” she said.

Natural gas pipelines also cross the San Andreas fault, so gas for cooking and heating is expected to be in short supply.

And the aging water pipes in L.A., which seem to break with great regularity even without an earthquake, are not expected to stand-up well when the big earthquake hits.

“The water pipes – remember the first thing you put in in a city is the water pipes. That means our water pipes are some of the oldest parts of our infrastructure,” Jones said.

“Seventy percent of the water pipes in Southern California are AC pipes and many of them will be breaking when this earthquake happens.”

Much of the high-tech damage could hinder the recovery effort in the weeks and months after the earthquake, according to Dr. Jones, so getting Southern California back on its feet could be a wrenching process.

“The world wide web wasn’t in existence at the time of the Northridge earthquake,” she said. “Right now think of how much both your personal life, but also our economic system, depends on having cell phone communications and internet connectivity (sic).”

The “Shakeout Report” from the USGS estimates it could take six months for the broken water pipes to be replaced across Southern California after the earthquake.

And they say while the Northridge quake directly affected about a half a million people, a maximum credible earthquake on the San Andreas fault could affect 10 million Californians.

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Offline Chieftain

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The Pacifist Northwest is no better prepared for when the Cascadia fault lets go again.  When it does, it stands a very good chance of triggering a new eruption of Mt. Ranier, and it would literally flush the entire Puget Sound out into the Pacific with pyroclastic flows.  The whole Cascade Range is full of old volcanoes because it is part of the Pacific Rim, and it ain't just LA that is at risk of being washed away....

And how about a good sized asteroid strike anywhere in the Pacific??  The resulting tsunamis would take out everything on the West Coast....


Offline Oceander

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would this include getting rid of hollywood?

Offline Atomic Cow

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Better keep Bush away from the weather/earthquake machine.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

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In an earthquake of this size, the shaking will last for nearly two minutes. The strongest shaking will occur near the fault (in the projected earthquake, the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley). Pockets of strong shaking will form away from the fault where sediments trap the waves (in the projected earthquake, it would occur in the San Gabriel Valley and in East Los Angeles

Offline truth_seeker

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Assuming a really, really big jolt along the southern San Andreas, many so called lateral faults could shift as well.

The Long Beach (1933) earthquake in the occurred on the Newport Inglewood fault, causing damage and 115 deaths.

The Northridge (1994 - 60 deaths) earthquake and the San Fernando/Sylmar (1971- 65 deaths) earthquake caused massive damage. Whittier Narrows (1987 - 8 deaths).

Got interested in 1971 when I was working in the oil business and my boss was a geologist, who had experienced the Long Beach quake, as did my mother.

A great deal has been learned about how to build structures, to survive quakes.
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A great deal has been learned about how to build structures, to survive quakes.


Look at the parking structure at CSUN.It folded like a deck of cards. Classes were to resume there the day of the earthquake.Houses slipped off their foundations off the hillsides in the San Fernando Valley.Some estimates of total damage range as high as $25 billion.The Pacific plate is moving northwest, scraping horizontally past North America at fault, 33 millimeters (1.3 inches) each year

http://www.scec.org/research/special/SCEC001activefaultsLA.pdf
« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 01:27:18 AM by SPQR »

Offline truth_seeker

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Look at the parking structure at CSUN.It folded like a deck of cards. Classes were to resume there the day of the earthquake.Houses slipped off their foundations off the hillsides in the San Fernando Valley.Some estimates of total damage range as high as $25 billion.The Pacific plate is moving northwest, scraping horizontally past North America at fault, 33 millimeters (1.3 inches) each year

http://www.scec.org/research/special/SCEC001activefaultsLA.pdf

Did you know the city of San Francisco lies EAST of the San Andreas, so those hoping for its demise, might be disappointed for alas, it will remain attached to the mainland.

http://geology.com/san-andreas-fault/
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Offline Cincinnatus

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Did you know the city of San Francisco lies EAST of the San Andreas, so those hoping for its demise, might be disappointed for alas, it will remain attached to the mainland.

Not hardly. The Bay Area, including SF, is home to a number of faults including the San Andreas,

Quote
The San Francisco Bay Area is transected by a series of subparallel faults that together accommodate the relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The San Andreas Fault and 6 other significant fault zones are present in the Bay Area: the Calaveras, Concord-Green Valley, Greenville, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and San Gregorio Faults. The faults shown here are represented by simple lines which do not convey how complicated they can be. In reality, active faults can be very complex, consisting of multiple breaks along curved, complex traces. See for yourself by examining the detailed mapping of the Hayward Fault.


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/virtualtour/bayarea.php

The San Andreas is believed responsible for the great destruction of the 1906 SF quake or one of its shifts may have triggered another fault like the Hayward to cause it.
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I should know about the Northridge earthquake because I lived through the Northridge quake and had a piece of glass in my leg and ended up with 10 stiches. My neighborhood was totally destroyed. It cost my parents $ 1 million dollars to repair their home  That is not counting temporary lodging which was another $50,000. My house was 15 miles from the epicenter in Canyon Country. Whole neighborhoods of apartment buildings were wiped out or severly damaged. My fiancés home collapsed. Every single window on  Sepulveda Blvd and Nordhoff St was busted.Full recovery did not occur until 1996-1997.At CSUN, most of the classes were held in bungelows because buildings were being repaired. They did not finish until 1998. They finally build a parking structure there the can withstand an earthquake which they put up in 2001 because parking was scarce and students were beginning to complain. A lot of student housing there was closed and most of them "red tagged". There is a plaque there for the victims of the Northridge Meadows apartments.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 03:37:18 AM by SPQR »

Offline Rapunzel

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I should know about the Northridge earthquake because I lived through the Northridge quake and had a piece of glass in my leg and ended up with 10 stiches. My neighborhood was totally destroyed. It cost my parents $ 1 million dollars to repair their home  That is not counting temporary lodging which was another $50,000. My house was 15 miles from the epicenter in Canyon Country. Whole neighborhoods of apartment buildings were wiped out or severly damaged. My fiancés home collapsed. Every single window on  Sepulveda Blvd and Nordhoff St was busted.Full recovery did not occur until 1996-1997.At CSUN, most of the classes were held in bungelows because buildings were being repaired. They did not finish until 1998. They finally build a parking structure there the can withstand an earthquake which they put up in 2001 because parking was scarce and students were beginning to complain. A lot of student housing there was closed and most of them "red tagged". There is a plaque there for the victims of the Northridge Meadows apartments.

That - coincidentally - was our last day in California.  The moving truck had taken all our furniture the day before, we had the van back up in the driveway and our Z-Car in the garage, slept on an air mattress that night, planning to leave in the morning.. all of a sudden things started shaking like crazy and the empty house was making a LOT of noise. we lept up and said simultaneously "we're out of here." Dressed, finished cleaning the house and got the heck out of town.. listening to KFI all the way out here on the radio to hear the damage reports...   

The quake that hit outside Barstow in the late 90's shook all the hotels in Vegas and all the way to Phoenix - that quake woke us up, too... 

 The Whittier Narrows quake I was at work in Fullerton and when it kept shaking I flew under my desk.. it was a shallow quake and felt a lot stronger than it actually measured - the fire sprinkler covers were flying off the ceilings and it seemed like it would never quit shaking..   my husband had been out of the plant running an errand and happened to be waking in from the parking lot when it hit and he said what really struck him was how the ground was making thiese big heaving rolling motions.

We used to keep earthquake kits in both cars and a big bag of dehydrated food, water, money, etc., in a bag under the stairs in the house.  I kept tennis shoes in both cars because no way would I want to start walking home in high heels.  When you live in earthquake county you know the big one could hit any time and you need to be prepared.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

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That - coincidentally - was our last day in California.  The moving truck had taken all our furniture the day before, we had the van back up in the driveway and our Z-Car in the garage, slept on an air mattress that night, planning to leave in the morning.. all of a sudden things started shaking like crazy and the empty house was making a LOT of noise. we lept up and said simultaneously "we're out of here." Dressed, finished cleaning the house and got the heck out of town.. listening to KFI all the way out here on the radio to hear the damage reports...   

The quake that hit outside Barstow in the late 90's shook all the hotels in Vegas and all the way to Phoenix - that quake woke us up, too... 

 The Whittier Narrows quake I was at work in Fullerton and when it kept shaking I flew under my desk.. it was a shallow quake and felt a lot stronger than it actually measured - the fire sprinkler covers were flying off the ceilings and it seemed like it would never quit shaking..   my husband had been out of the plant running an errand and happened to be waking in from the parking lot when it hit and he said what really struck him was how the ground was making thiese big heaving rolling motions.

We used to keep earthquake kits in both cars and a big bag of dehydrated food, water, money, etc., in a bag under the stairs in the house.  I kept tennis shoes in both cars because no way would I want to start walking home in high heels.  When you live in earthquake county you know the big one could hit any time and you need to be prepared.

I have a nice beauty scar on my leg to remind me of that day

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I have a nice beauty scar on my leg to remind me of that day

Being "red tagged" was the sign of death. If an engineer gave you a red tag on your home it meant you had to be out of your home within 12 hours. The word "red-tagged" was the word of death in the lexicon. My parents had the misfortune of being "red tagged" by two different engineers. Then you would have to find a moving company that charged you twice the rate who would help you move your belongings out of my parents home while I am nursing a huge wound on my leg and shutting off peoples gas lines so they would not cause a fire.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 04:31:57 AM by SPQR »

Offline Rapunzel

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Being "red tagged" was the sign of death. If an engineer gave you a red tag on your home it meant you had to be out of your home within 12 hours. The word "red-tagged" was the word of death in the lexicon. My parents had the misfortune of being "red tagged" by two different engineers. Then you would have to find a moving company that charged you twice the rate who would help you move your belongings out of my parents home while I am nursing a huge wound on my leg and shutting off peoples gas lines so they would not cause a fire.


Yes, I know about red tagging.

We had a friend who lived very close to the epicenter of the Loma Prieta quake (the quake that did so much damage in the bay area in the 80's) his home was new and well built, but it knocked him off his feet - some homes not far away were demolished - he took us around to show the damage there and in Santa Cruz that Christmas...

I have a winter neighbor who lived through the big Alaska quake, their home (actually all the homes on their street) slid into the ocean and they barely escaped with their lives only to have to make a run from the tsunami... they lost everything in a matter of seconds.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

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Yes, I know about red tagging.

We had a friend who lived very close to the epicenter of the Loma Prieta quake (the quake that did so much damage in the bay area in the 80's) his home was new and well built, but it knocked him off his feet - some homes not far away were demolished - he took us around to show the damage there and in Santa Cruz that Christmas...

I have a winter neighbor who lived through the big Alaska quake, their home (actually all the homes on their street) slid into the ocean and they barely escaped with their lives only to have to make a run from the tsunami... they lost everything in a matter of seconds.

One thing it did do. It brought people who did not know each other together because we were all in the same situation.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 04:49:47 AM by SPQR »

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Yes, I know about red tagging.

We had a friend who lived very close to the epicenter of the Loma Prieta quake (the quake that did so much damage in the bay area in the 80's) his home was new and well built, but it knocked him off his feet - some homes not far away were demolished - he took us around to show the damage there and in Santa Cruz that Christmas...


I'll never forget that quake.  My family is a bunch of east coasters, but my brother was stationed in the Navy (Moffett Field) back then and my father was out there visiting him.  They were attending the World Series game at Candlestick Park when that quake hit.  Hearing about that (and all the aftershocks) from my father, who had never in his life experienced such a thing in his life, was quite something. 

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I have close friends living in Scotts Valley in the Santa Cruz mountains who went through Loma Prieta. When they visited Redding after the quake they showed me dozens of photographs of downtown Santa Cruz. It was an eye-opener. I had felt the ground shake many times when I lived in Palo Alto and didn't like it one bit.
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Offline Rapunzel

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I have close friends living in Scotts Valley in the Santa Cruz mountains who went through Loma Prieta. When they visited Redding after the quake they showed me dozens of photographs of downtown Santa Cruz. It was an eye-opener. I had felt the ground shake many times when I lived in Palo Alto and didn't like it one bit.


Our friend lived in Scott's Valley.  The property his home was built on was beautiful, tons of old Apple trees and the deer would wander around..  the original house on the property would have never survived that quake, I loved it and old frame house slipping floors, but tons of charm... They tore it down and built the beautiful home in its place, not a bit of damage to the new home, but only a mile or two away fairly new houses were totally leveled.  One of the prettiest parts of CA IMO.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline Cincinnatus

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Amazing how many of us have earthquake memories, including me. I grew up in CA and was very familiar with the earthquake danger but like most Californians was a fatalist about the issue. If it happens, it happens.

My strongest memory of earthquakes is Northridge mostly because I was living in a high rise apartment building right on the beach in Long Beach (yeah, it was sweet). I awoke in the very early morning hours to feel the building swaying back and forth on its earthquake designed foundation. Spooky. Anyway, no injuries, no damage, just a weird experience.
We shall never be abandoned by Heaven while we act worthy of its aid ~~ Samuel Adams

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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I have never experienced an earthquake, and have always been curious about it.  The ONE earthquake that hit this area that I remember was in August, 2011.  My husband and I were away, cruising in Bermuda at the time, so I missed it.  Always irritated me that my one chance came, and I wasn't even here.

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I have never experienced an earthquake, and have always been curious about it.  The ONE earthquake that hit this area that I remember was in August, 2011.  My husband and I were away, cruising in Bermuda at the time, so I missed it.  Always irritated me that my one chance came, and I wasn't even here.

Only ever once. Scared me more than anything has before or since. Guess I got old fashioned views about the ground being the ground and not dancing like a clubber on E.
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Offline Rapunzel

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I have never experienced an earthquake, and have always been curious about it.  The ONE earthquake that hit this area that I remember was in August, 2011.  My husband and I were away, cruising in Bermuda at the time, so I missed it.  Always irritated me that my one chance came, and I wasn't even here.

It is always so unexpected.  When the Whittier quake hit at first I was like oh, we're having an earthquake and that was pretty much it, but it kept going and getting stronger so I dove under my desk...... and then it kept going and going and I remember letting out a few swear words ~LOL~  because stuff was falling off the ceiling and you just didn't know what was falling at the time....most quakes you just sort of ho hum.... and then some really get your attention.  We were out here visiting friends when the big quake hit Big Bear back in the 80's... when it hit we were like what the heck?  they don't have earthquakes out here (yes they do) ~LOL~

We have living proof out here of our constantly moving faults - a section of I40 between the bridge over the Colorado River and Needles is constantly moving and the has to be scraped down and repaved... after a couple of years has to be done again because it rises and falls and becomes like a buckboard driving over (lots of fun pulling a boat) and there is another section that does the same thing on 89 between Flagstaff and Page AZ - near the painted desert. 
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

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Very quick derail, if you'll permit.

What's the snow forecast for Flagstaff this year? Used to have a link, but can't find it, and we were thinking of coming over in Feb for some skiing and to hit up the Canyon again.
The fastest way to a man's heart? Inch to the right of the breastbone, between the fourth and fifth rib.

Every time I start to feel boring, I remember there is a monthly magazine devoted to elevators.

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I've got a website now: Smoke and Ink

Offline truth_seeker

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I am a goner in at least three possible scenarios.

1. Earthquake-I live near the Newport-Inglewood fault, source of the Long Beach 1933 quake, my home is built on liquefaction soil.

2. I live just barely above sea level, so a Tsunami would finish us off. Higher tides same result.

3. I live near a manmade river, and if the banks were breached, would flood us.

(in effect this low-lying area is reclaimed delta or estuary, the river contained in present banks, instead of meandering, every few seasons-a fairly common occurrence around the world)

Not to mention fires, wars, nuclear power plants, air pollution, and marauding hordes of evil gangs.

But an article today said the caldera below Yellowstone Park could wipe out our country!!
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Offline Rapunzel

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If Yellowstone goes the SW USA is gone....... I've seen the map and we are all in the path.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776


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