http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=7D7A7B7B-2636-43B2-898D-9641844AC9F5 Conservatives balk at budget deal
By: Ginger Gibson
December 10, 2013 07:03 PM EST
It’s a familiar tale: Negotiators strike a fiscal deal, conservative lawmakers express resistance, conservative groups threaten primary opposition and headaches ensue for Republican leadership trying to get something through Congress.
It happened during the fiscal cliff. It happened during the government shutdown. And the same elements are starting to appear, possibly creating a repeat scenario as a budget deal takes shape.
As Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) were only a few hours from announcing a budget deal Tuesday night that would replace some of the sequester and set spending levels for the next two years, conservatives concerned about the debt already are starting to sound alarms — specifically about busting the so-called caps under the sequester that set spending levels at $967 billion for the remainder of fiscal 2014 under the Budget Control Act. Many conservatives view the sequester cuts as harsh but necessary.
It would take a sizable movement to sink the budget deal — likely requiring more than five Senate Republicans, or more than half of House Republicans, since many Democrats are expected to back the deal — which aides on both sides think is unlikely to happen.
But it doesn’t mean that a handful of strident opponents couldn’t scuttle an agreement, or at least make a lot of noise about it.
Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, the top Senate Republican on the budget negotiating committee, said before the deal announcement was made that he doesn’t know yet whether he will back the agreement.
“I don’t think anything is a sure deal in the House or the Senate,” Sessions said. “Hopefully, it’ll be something that people can support, but I’m uneasy about it because Democrats are demanding a lot of things that I think won’t be supported.”
He added, “It’s not going to be a happy experience for most members, liberals and conservatives.”
In the House, some of the same group of firebrand conservatives who earlier this year fought to tie spending to repealing Obamacare also are opposed to breaking the sequester caps.
“This slides right in the face of what we agreed to 11 months ago — that we were never going to give up the sequester,” said Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.).
Furthermore, three conservative groups — Heritage Action, FreedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity — preemptively announced opposition to a budget deal this week. Those groups, which hold sway with the party’s conservative base and aren’t afraid to wade into primary fights, have used their clout to push Republican lawmakers to oppose fiscal proposals before.
Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, said Republicans had given their word that they would hold the sequester cuts in place. And breaking that vow could have consequences.
“We will absolutely hold them accountable if they break their word and go back on the sequester cuts,” Phillips told POLITICO.
“These are groups that send some pretty strong messages to the base of the conservative party,” Huelskamp said. “We’re not going to blame this one on [House Minority Leader Nancy] Pelosi, and I think conservatives across the country are going to be furious.”
Fresh off the political fallout from a government shutdown largely blamed on Republicans, the conservatives who have thrown a wrench in the works on previous fiscal deals might not be able to gain the same momentum this time.
The looming $20 billion in cuts to defense spending set to kick in next month via the sequester are motivating some Republicans to back a potential deal who might have otherwise joined some conservatives to oppose it.
It would take a sizable movement to sink the budget deal — likely requiring more than five Senate Republicans, or more than half of House Republicans, since many Democrats are expected to back the deal — which aides on both sides think is unlikely to happen.
But it doesn’t mean that a handful of strident opponents couldn’t scuttle an agreement, or at least make a lot of noise about it.
Conservatives are most unhappy about a budget deal that includes an increase in discretionary spending above the levels established in the sequester. Democrats have been insistent that some — preferably all — of the sequester cuts be replaced.
The deal being crafted by Murray and Ryan ultimately struck a middle ground — eliminating some of the sequester cuts but doing so by finding revenues to offset them in other areas.
Before even seeing the details, some Senate conservatives were already starting to cast doubt on backing a deal that violates the sequester caps.
“I don’t see a way at this point,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said of whether he could support such a deal.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) also expressed concern that the deal won’t address long-term debt and deficit problems.
“What we really need is a government with less debt and an economy that is creating more stable middle-class jobs,” Rubio said Tuesday on Sean Hannity’s radio program. “And my sense, from what I’ve read, is that this budget is going to fail to accomplish those goals. It’s going to make it harder for Americans to achieve the American dream.”
And as the election year creeps closer, the reality or fear of primary opponents could make Republicans who can often be counted on to vote for a bipartisan deal more apprehensive.
“I hope I don’t have to,” said Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), who is facing a Republican primary opponent, when asked whether he could support a budget deal that breaks the sequester caps.
Many of the House’s most conservative members would be happy to offer Democrats a take-it-or-leave-it option of keeping the sequester in place or shutting down the government, again.
“Let’s keep this current, money-saving law in place so that we can focus on a bigger problem facing Americans — repealing Obamacare and its harmful effects,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said in a statement Tuesday.
Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, who chairs the conservative Republican Study Committee, said he wants to see a deal that slashes mandatory spending — programs like Social Security and Medicare aren’t touched by the sequester — to changes to the sequester.
“If it doesn’t have mandatory spending reforms, if it raises taxes, those would be nonstarters,” Scalise said. He joined 32 other members in calling for Republican leadership to put forward a sequester-level continuing resolution if a budget deal didn’t meet conservative requirements, but stopped short of saying what those requirements would be.
Some members said big-ticket items that Republicans have been requesting — like a balanced budget amendment — would be the only thing to make them support breaking the sequester caps.
“That’s going to be tough,” Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) said. “It would have to be something pretty big to justify breaking the caps.”
