GOP Ahead/Tied in 8 Key Senate Battleground States
by Steve Foley on December 10, 2013
Good morning folks,
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow… and let the polls continue to show the odds of the Democrats losing their majority are rapidly growing.
The Rothenberg Political Report’s Nathan Gonzalez recently wrote that, “Democrats might want to consider opening their minds to the potential of another midterm nightmare.” A quick glance at the latest polls coming out of battleground states reveals that Gonzalez is onto something. Let’s have a look:
Michigan: This morning even a liberal PPP survey shows Terri Lynn Land leading Gary Peters by 2 points. More impressive is that PPP’s sample was +5 Dem when it should be more like +1/2 Dem. As we’ve stressed, not only is Michigan in play, but the odds look even.
Arkansas: Politico’s James Hohmann reports that “Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor trails his Republican challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton, by seven points among likely voters in Arkansas, 48-41%…. Cotton is ahead among independents by 21 points and among women by 4 points.” As we’ve stressed, Mark Pryor is the most vulnerable Senator in America and appears to be running the Blanche Lincoln 2.0 playbook and that Arkansas is on a clear path to flip red in 2014.
Louisiana: Two weeks ago, a Southern Media poll showed that support for Mary Landrieu in Louisiana dropped more than 10 points amid the ObamaCare disaster. Now, the Louisiana blogger “The Hayride” reports that “Many people thought the 41 percent she polled in last month’s SMOR survey was her floor; turns out it isn’t… …There’s another poll out there on Landrieu’s re-election which isn’t public, but it has Landrieu sitting well below 40 percent and without a lead on Bill Cassidy.” As we’ve stressed, if Mark Pryor is the most vulnerable Senator in America, his neighbor to the south Mary Landrieu comes in 2nd for that title by a hair.
North Carolina: In November, a Civitas poll showed that half of North Carolina voters would not vote for Kay Hagan but would instead give someone else a chance at the office. Now, even a new liberal PPP survey (Disclaimer: PPP is a Hagan donor) shows Hagan’s approval rating underwater: 43/49%. As we’ve stressed, Kay Hagan is deeply embattled and the environment indicates more trouble ahead for the embattled Senator.
Iowa: Our friends at the DSCC revealed just how panicked they are about the Hawkeye State by touting a poll showing Bruce Braley in a statistical heat with a primary field they’ve spent the last several months mocking. As the Iowa Republican noted, “A poll of 985 likely Iowa voters conducted on November 23 and 24 show Braley leading by as little as three points, within the margin of error. His biggest lead is only six points. Even more troubling for Congressman Braley is his inability to climb above 42% in the polling… …Overall, these numbers show that Bruce Braley is beatable by any of Republican candidates polled.”
Republicans are tied or ahead in the five seats listed above, and we haven’t yet discussed Republican double digit leads in West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana. All in all, with less than a year to go before Election Day, Republicans are tied or ahead in eight key battleground states, and in others like Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado Republicans are within single digits against their Democratic opponents. Oh, and recent reports reveal that the map could be expanding even more in the weeks and months ahead.
So let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!
Seize the day,