Author Topic: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle  (Read 1637 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
Tuesday, November 5, 2013 10:17 PM

By: Greg Richter

Republican Ken Cuccinelli's unexpectedly strong showing in the Virginia governor's race will make it more difficult for moderate members of the GOP to pull the party toward the center, says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Polls had shown Cuccinelli down by 7 points to Democrat Terry McAuliffe, but Cuccinelli, a tea party favorite, led vote counts most of the night, with Clinton administration insider McAuliffe pulling out a late victory as bigger cities were counted.

"Whether it's one vote or a million, you're governor for four years," Sabato said. Still, he said, "The conservative Republicans will certainly take heart from the fact that Cuccinelli has done better than expected."

The big story, Sabato said, is Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's huge re-election win in a "deeply blue state."  Christie took 59 percent of the vote. He's the first Republican to win statewide with more than 50 percent since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

The United States is so politically polarized that it is remarkable any time a Democrat can win in a heavily red state or a Republican can win in a heavily blue state, Sabato said.

"Christie has shown the way," Sabato said. "The question, again, is whether the Republican activists – who are mainly social conservatives, tea party people, libertarians – whether they're willing to embrace somebody as moderate-conservative as Chris Christie."

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Offline Relic

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2013, 10:02:37 AM »
So, in summary, Larry Sabato, who seems to be one of those moderates says Cuccinelli's showing may mean something, but if the GOP should move to the middle because of Christie's showing.

He's probably right if all you want to do is win elections. Yes, I know, you have to win in order to have influence. But, if you run as, and govern as a liberal, then what's my incentive to vote for a liberal Republican?

Offline Bigun

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2013, 10:14:58 AM »
So, in summary, Larry Sabato, who seems to be one of those moderates says Cuccinelli's showing may mean something, but if the GOP should move to the middle because of Christie's showing.

He's probably right if all you want to do is win elections. Yes, I know, you have to win in order to have influence. But, if you run as, and govern as a liberal, then what's my incentive to vote for a liberal Republican?

The GOP establishment had better buy a clue and move toward conservatism if it wants to survive!

If they did that they would win MORE rather than less elections!

« Last Edit: November 06, 2013, 10:15:55 AM by Bigun »

Offline Relic

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2013, 10:22:17 AM »
The GOP establishment had better buy a clue and move toward conservatism if it wants to survive!

If they did that they would win MORE rather than less elections!

I don't know, America has moved a lot to the left.

But, for those that run as conservatives, it would make governing a lot easier if they win. Currently, a Republican runs to the right for the primary, then back to the middle/left for the general. The problem with that is, how do you govern? You can't make everyone happy when you've promised everything to everyone. If you run right, get elected, and govern right, you'll be re-elected.

The biggest problem Republicans have is not conservative principles, it's the brand. Americans have been brainwashed by the msm to believe Republicans are the party of old, rich, angry, racist white MEN. Very uncool. A lot of the stupid American electorate would vote Republican if the issues were laid before them without party affiliation. Once you mention Republican or Democrat, that changes things.
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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2013, 01:49:07 PM »
I don't know, America has moved a lot to the left. 

Polls state that isn't true, Relic.  I think we have voters who are sick of there being no difference in the two parties and more and more are just sitting out the elections.
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2013, 02:32:23 PM »
Polls state that isn't true, Relic.  I think we have voters who are sick of there being no difference in the two parties and more and more are just sitting out the elections.
Well if America remains "conservative" whatever that is, why can't conservatives appeal to like-minded voters?

Something is deficient, unfocused, misunderstood, poorly stated, ineffective about conservatism.

The currently popular rantings about rinos and GOPe, and TPrers, is not going to win elections, but it sure is entertaining, and fills the time slots on cable TV, radio, and news columns.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2013, 02:47:00 PM »
Well if America remains "conservative" whatever that is, why can't conservatives appeal to like-minded voters?

Something is deficient, unfocused, misunderstood, poorly stated, ineffective about conservatism.

The currently popular rantings about rinos and GOPe, and TPrers, is not going to win elections, but it sure is entertaining, and fills the time slots on cable TV, radio, and news columns.

Conservatives have to get past both Democrats and the GOPe... on the other hand the GOPe only has to fight Democrats and since there isn't  big difference between the two voters end up going with the real Democrat rather than the fake Republican.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2013, 02:47:33 PM by Rapunzel »
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2013, 03:58:43 PM »
Something is deficient, unfocused, misunderstood, poorly stated, ineffective about conservatism.


You are not the only person to make such observations, and they do reflect a set of very real problems for conservatives.

There are several related issues involved here, and I have not time to explore all of these issues in this space. But please allow me to touch on a few and let you and others respond.

To begin with, I do not believe that the problem is "conservatism", by which I mean the philosophy of governance that it represents.

I believe that philosophy to be a valid one, informed as it is by a core set of principles, including: the primacy of the individual; the existence of organic, inalienable human rights whether derived from God or from man's nature - the essential of these rights being life, liberty, property, and self-defense; the necessity of representative government, but one limited to the purposes of protecting and promoting individual liberty, specifically by providing for a defined national government structure whose powers are both limited and enumerated so as to promote the rule of law, and provide for national defense, border security, and open commerce. It's all there, in our Constitution.

But as conservatives we do face some vexing problems. There has been a persistent difficulty with respect to the manner in which our philosophy has been presented and explained by its advocates. Part of that difficulty comes with having to promote what is essentially a negative proposition: favoring limits and restrictions on government power, and having to do so in the face of a population that in the course of human endeavor frequently agitates and advocates for more government power to solve problems.

In the political realm it is always easier to promote more, rather than less. It is more availing for the ambitious to promote ever more plans and schemes to "solve" problems, especially when the costs are spread among the broad populace, while the benefits accrue to highly focused and motivated groups. James Madison touched upon this in Federalist #10, specifically, in the dangers of "faction", the cure for which was in his eyes a Federal Republican system of government in which groups might voluntarily associate in independently-governed localities (states, districts and counties) and thus atomize and repress the worst effects of factious behavior. 

During the past 100 years, Progressives have manipulated and even manufactured group grievances toward the end of nationalizing every concern, creating effective and powerful constituencies for ever greater centralized government control and direction of commerce, land use, labor, welfare, education, and health.

Once that particular genie is out of the bottle, it is extremely hard to stuff it back in. But if we are to be effective conservatives, we need to try. And that means having to explain first principles and also having to make an effective case for them.
As David Horowitz recently noted1, Progressives have many natural advantages over conservatives.

       Anyone who pays attention to politics can see that when Democrats attack, they speak from the same text, and when they vote, they march in lockstep.
       If one Democrat says the wealthy must pay their “fair share,” all Democrats do — regardless of the merits of the charge. If their leaders say Republicans want
       to shut down the government in order to deny Americans affordable care, the rest of the party will follow their lead — whether the claim is true or not.

       When a key program like Obamacare is the issue, not only do Democrats back it with one voice, but every player on the political left — journalists, professors,
       talk-show hosts, union heads, MoveOn radicals, and Occupy anarchists — falls into line and promotes it with virtually identical words. They act in “solidarity” in
       fair political weather and foul, and they do it even for a program like Obamacare, which (as some of them must surely see) is ill-conceived, falsely presented,
       incompetently executed, and fiscally unsustainable.


       When the voices of the Left all come together, the amplification is stupefying. The result is that a morally bankrupt, politically tyrannical, economically
       destructive party is able to set the course of an entire nation and put it on the road to disaster.

       Republicans, in contrast, speak with multiple voices, and in words that often have no relation to each other....
These contending party voices are multiplied by
       conservative talking heads in the nation’s media who march to their own political drums. The result is a cacophony of talking points, which in the end point
       nowhere. Because Republicans speak with many voices, their message is often difficult, if not impossible, to make out.


What can bring us together as conservatives, Horowitz says, is "the power of a unifying idea", and that idea is Freedom.

I agree. But we must develop the language with which to promote it and propose to join with those who may not agree with us in all matters - even with some on the Left - in pursuit of a common goal of leading the country away from the disastrous road we are so evidently traveling, and back toward the sound, defensible principles on which it was founded.


1 http://www.nationalreview.com/article/362992/uniting-right-david-horowitz
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Offline olde north church

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2013, 04:43:19 PM »
Polls state that isn't true, Relic.  I think we have voters who are sick of there being no difference in the two parties and more and more are just sitting out the elections.

Has been my thought for a while.
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Offline rangerrebew

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2013, 05:10:45 PM »
Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle

This wouldn't be a move to the center, it would be a move to the LEFT.  But to keep people from seeing that, the "political scientist" covers the truth through rhetoric by saying it a move to the center. :nono:
Abraham Lincoln:

There is no grievance that is a fit object of redress by mob law.
--January 27, 1838 Lyceum Address

Don't interfere with anything in the Constitution. That must be maintained, for it is the only safeguard of our liberties. And not to Democrats alone do I make this appeal, but to all who love these
great and true principles.
--August 27, 1856 Speech at Kalamazoo, Michigan

Let us then turn this government back into the channel in which the framers of the Constitution originally placed it.
--July 10, 1858 Speech at Chicago

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2013, 05:18:04 PM »
Conservatives have to get past both Democrats and the GOPe... on the other hand the GOPe only has to fight Democrats and since there isn't  big difference between the two voters end up going with the real Democrat rather than the fake Republican.
And of course conservatives are always surprised at the last minute-never seen any of this before, and couldn't possibly have been expected to anticipate?

IOW conservatives are always victims of matters beyond their control?

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2013, 05:27:38 PM »
And of course conservatives are always surprised at the last minute-never seen any of this before, and couldn't possibly have been expected to anticipate?


And of course conservatives -GOP elites- are always surprised at the last minute-never seen any of this before, and couldn't possibly have been expected to anticipate?

There, fixed it.

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2013, 06:51:54 PM »
It means the GOP-e will double down on moving more to the left.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2013, 09:15:59 PM »
[[ I agree. But we must develop the language with which to promote it and propose to join with those who may not agree with us in all matters - even with some on the Left - in pursuit of a common goal of leading the country away from the disastrous road we are so evidently traveling, and back toward the sound, defensible principles on which it was founded. ]]

Fine post, Andy, but I sense that time left for "the soap box" is running out...

And I sense that the "other side" realizes this as well, and is actively preparing for the consequences...

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2013, 01:56:37 AM »
To begin with, I do not believe that the problem is "conservatism", by which I mean the philosophy of governance that it represents.

There has been a persistent difficulty with respect to the manner in which our philosophy has been presented and explained by its advocates.

Agreed. The truth is to win elections, requires support not only from TPers but other Republicans, independents, libertarians and a few democrats.

And those groups do not share a common set of first priority positions. And any and all steps to pit them against each other, plays into the democrats hands.

Offline Once-Ler

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2013, 03:54:40 AM »
Polls state that isn't true, Relic.  I think we have voters who are sick of there being no difference in the two parties and more and more are just sitting out the elections.

Oh so Cuccinelli just didn't let voters know how different he was.  Perhaps if he said stuff louder and more angry the voters of VA would have embraced him.
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2013, 04:25:53 AM »
Polls state that isn't true, Relic.  I think we have voters who are sick of there being no difference in the two parties and more and more are just sitting out the elections.


In fact, more and more people are voting.

Voter turnout was highest between 1840 and 1900. The modern era has seen substantially lower voter turnout. However, since 1996 voter turnout has been steadily increasing to levels last seen in 1950s and 60s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections
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Offline olde north church

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2013, 05:10:42 AM »
In fact, more and more people are voting.

Voter turnout was highest between 1840 and 1900. The modern era has seen substantially lower voter turnout. However, since 1996 voter turnout has been steadily increasing to levels last seen in 1950s and 60s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections


I might say the "wrong" people are voting.  The people who are voting for free stuff as opposed to further a grand philosophical ideal.  It's a bit ridiculous to expect other people NOT to vote for what they believe their interests are when that's exactly what people on our side are doing.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2013, 05:11:19 AM by olde north church »
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2013, 07:45:33 AM »
Excellent point. You're probably right.

The biggest spender to occupy the Oval Office is Obama – hands down. But, the second biggest is George W. Bush. Coincidence that that's when turn out went on the rise? You be the judge.
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Offline alicewonders

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2013, 08:00:59 AM »
Excellent point. You're probably right.

The biggest spender to occupy the Oval Office is Obama – hands down. But, the second biggest is George W. Bush. Coincidence that that's when turn out went on the rise? You be the judge.

That's why they're both for amnesty.
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Offline happyg

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2013, 08:08:26 AM »
Conservatives have to get past both Democrats and the GOPe... on the other hand the GOPe only has to fight Democrats and since there isn't  big difference between the two voters end up going with the real Democrat rather than the fake Republican.


Offline DCPatriot

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2013, 08:11:23 AM »
Polls state that isn't true, Relic.  I think we have voters who are sick of there being no difference in the two parties and more and more are just sitting out the elections.

We're deluding ourselves with that mindset.

We're outnumbered....and soon to be crushed by the addition of another 20+ Million illegals getting amnesty/citizenship.
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Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2013, 08:12:13 AM »
Excellent point. You're probably right.

The biggest spender to occupy the Oval Office is Obama – hands down. But, the second biggest is George W. Bush. Coincidence that that's when turn out went on the rise? You be the judge.

Lets not forget that 9/11, followed by a new era of a global war on terrorism started on Bush's watch.  Seems to me that was probably kind of expensive.

Offline Lipstick on a Hillary

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2013, 08:13:34 AM »
We're deluding ourselves with that mindset.

We're outnumbered....and soon to be crushed by the addition of another 20+ Million illegals getting amnesty/citizenship.

Wait, what?  Do my eyes deceive me or are you being sarcastic?

Offline happyg

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Re: Political Scientist: Cuccinelli's Showing May Curb GOP Move to Middle
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2013, 08:17:21 AM »
Lets not forget that 9/11, followed by a new era of a global war on terrorism started on Bush's watch.  Seems to me that was probably kind of expensive.

And, there was Katrina, among other natural disasters.


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