MORGAN STANLEY: Here Comes The Worst Holiday Shopping Season Since 2008
Morgan Stanley makes a troubling prediction: the upcoming holiday shopping season will be the worst since 2008.
In a new report — titled "Expect Coal: We Predict the Weakest Holiday Since 2008" — Morgan Stanley analysts Kimberly Greenberger, Scott Devitt, Ellen Zentner, and Jay Sole explain their forecast for a meager 1.6% increase in same-store sales at softline retailers in the fourth quarter.
"We believe an uncertain U.S. macroeconomic backdrop, unfavorable calendar shifts, continued big ticket item strength (autos, appliances, home improvement) and increased promotional activity likely inhibits 2013 Holiday sales as well as overall near-term retail sales growth," writes the Morgan Stanley team. "Our bottom-up analysis (the sales weighted average of our individual company estimates) implies a +1.6% increase in Holiday comp store sales, [1.9 percentage points] below last year’s +3.5% gain, both excluding [J.C. Penney]."
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