Author Topic: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats  (Read 984 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/329755-election-prospects-put-a-spring-in-the-step-of-senate-democrats


Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
By Alexandra Jaffe - 10/22/13 05:58 AM ET


Senate Democrats have emerged from the government shutdown more confident about holding control of the upper chamber in 2014 — with some polls fueling hopes the party could pick up a seat or two currently held by the GOP.

The sentiment marks a shift in attitude even from this summer, when partisans on both sides viewed control of the Senate as a toss-up.

The optimism is being tempered by concerns that a botched rollout of ObamaCare could cloud the electoral horizon and nullify shutdown gains made at the expense of the GOP.

But polls showing voters primarily blamed Republicans for the crisis have even GOP strategists acknowledging that the prospects of a Senate takeover have dimmed.

“They certainly made the road to a Senate majority much more difficult,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, referring to congressional Republicans who embraced the shutdown strategy.

Democrats hold 55 Senate seats; the GOP needs to pick up six seats to regain the majority.

Their path wends through four Democratic-held red states, three seats held by retiring Democrats in states Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election and a handful of more difficult blue-leaning swing states with retiring Democratic incumbents.

Democratic polling shows three of the party’s four most vulnerable incumbents — Sens. Mary Landrieu, in Louisiana, Mark Pryor, in Arkansas, and Kay Hagan, in North Carolina — holding small but promising leads over their Republican opponents.

All four red-state Democrats, including Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), posted strong third-quarter fundraising totals and remain well ahead of their opponents in cash on hand.

In Kentucky, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes has led Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in four recent polls.

In Georgia, polling from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Democrat Michelle Nunn tying a generic Republican with 42 percent support each.

Democratic-held Senate seats in West Virginia and South Dakota still look favorable to the GOP.

But Democrats says there is reason to relax somewhat — and even rejoice — because they feel the shutdown has reshuffled the political playing deck for 2014.

“The shutdown hurt millions of people across the country, cost our economy billions, and tanked the Republican Party with voters. All in all, it was a stupid and reckless ploy,” said Ty Matsdorf, spokesman for Senate Majority PAC, a top super-PAC working to elect Democrats to the Senate.

O’Connell said the shutdown fundamentally undermined the GOP’s message for 2014.

“The argument the GOP is making is that you have to put us back in charge of governance,” he says. “And I’m sure as the dust settles, there are going to be independents scratching their heads on that one.”

In Louisiana, which Democrats hope to defend, and Georgia, which they hope to flip, the shutdown could strengthen Democratic hands.

Rep. Bill Cassidy, the front-runner for the GOP nomination in Louisiana, is facing a conservative primary challenge and voted against the deal to end the shutdown.

According to polling from PPP, Landrieu leads Cassidy by 7 points. Her lead expands to 10 points when voters are told that Cassidy supported the shutdown.

A campaign adviser to Landrieu said the shutdown outcome plays into the senator’s campaign narrative.

“Landrieu has a record of getting things done, and if the frustration with Washington is nothing’s working — do we really want to send someone like Cassidy to Washington?” says the adviser.

In Georgia, all three of the sitting congressmen running for Senate — Reps. Jack Kingston, Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun — voted “no” on the deal.

Democratic polling showed Nunn opening a 6-point lead on a generic Republican when voters are told the GOP members supported the shutdown.

The impact of the shutdown on many other races is less clear.

But GOP votes in favor of the deal to end the shutdown suggest concerns about its impact on Republican chances.

Rep. Tom Cotton, who is running against Pryor in Arkansas, voted in favor of the compromise.

The last five polls give Pryor a slight lead over Cotton. PPP’s most recent survey also indicated a plurality of voters were less likely to support Cotton after finding out he initially supported the shutdown.

Brad Dayspring, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the PPP polls are a “sham” because the firm used “little tricks-o-the-trade” — like asking about a generic GOP candidate — “to skew the data to fit the narrative” of Democratic strength.

Shutdown politics are less likely to play in Alaska and North Carolina, where none of the Republican challengers are in Congress.

The biggest unknown for Democrats is how the shutdown will play in Kentucky, where Lundergan Grimes is challenging McConnell, who brokered the deal to reopen government.

A recent Democratic poll showed Kentuckians overwhelmingly disapproving of the shutdown. Lundergan Grimes led by 2 points.

While McConnell’s role in brokering a deal to end the shutdown likely won favor with some centrists, it incensed the Tea Party.

The Senate Conservatives Fund has endorsed the Senate minority leader’s primary opponent, Matt Bevin.

O’Connell says the shutdown likely hurt the GOP with independent voters in states like Iowa and Michigan, where Senate retirements have given Republicans reason to play in blue-leaning swing states. He noted that Republicans might have lost an opportunity to drain Democratic resources.

“You’ve got to be able to keep as many options open as possible. If you can’t, then Democrats start moving resources around. In Iowa, Michigan — you have to have them spending money there, because that’s money they’re not spending in Arkansas,” he said, referring to the GOP’s top pickup opportunity for the cycle.

But Jennifer Duffy, a Senate analyst for the Cook Report, noted other issues — like a botched rollout of ObamaCare exchanges — could play an outsized role in 2014 as well.

If ObamaCare ends up clearly hurting consumers, she said, Republicans could argue that their reasoning for shutting down the government was sound.

“As we have witnessed, the attention span of the average voter is pretty short,” Duffy said.

“We’re in wait-and-see mode,” she added.



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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2013, 10:09:22 PM »
We all know that a few months is an eternity in American politics, but...

... if the Republicans go on to lose badly in the 2014 midterms, they are in REAL trouble.

Those people (many in this forum) who laugh and ridicule the notion that a new party could arise to displace the Republican party from its current stature as "the second party" may still be laughing.

But I sense their laughter will begin dying down -- to be replaced by another emotion:

Terror.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2013, 10:10:33 PM by Fishrrman »

Offline Carling

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2013, 10:22:01 PM »
We all know that a few months is an eternity in American politics, but...

... if the Republicans go on to lose badly in the 2014 midterms, they are in REAL trouble.

Those people (many in this forum) who laugh and ridicule the notion that a new party could arise to displace the Republican party from its current stature as "the second party" may still be laughing.

But I sense their laughter will begin dying down -- to be replaced by another emotion:

Terror.


At least you didn't go melodramatic...   :silly:

Trump has created a cult and looks more and more like Hitler every day.
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2013, 10:43:37 PM »
We all know that a few months is an eternity in American politics, but...

... if the Republicans go on to lose badly in the 2014 midterms, they are in REAL trouble.

Those people (many in this forum) who laugh and ridicule the notion that a new party could arise to displace the Republican party from its current stature as "the second party" may still be laughing.

But I sense their laughter will begin dying down -- to be replaced by another emotion:

Terror.

No, friend.  Go ahead and try a third party.

The history of third parties in the last 150 years is dismal.

You are under the mistaken impression that the tea party is more than a majority in the Republican Party.  It's not. 

If you want to destroy the Republican Party, go ahead.  You'll sink along with it.
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Offline AbaraXas

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2013, 10:45:30 PM »
I found an article the other day about how the Democrats were feeling good about 2010 around October 2009, predicting a 70 seat pick-up.

We'll see.

Offline sinkspur

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2013, 11:02:26 PM »
I found an article the other day about how the Democrats were feeling good about 2010 around October 2009, predicting a 70 seat pick-up.

We'll see.

Obamacare is going to be a nightmare for the Democrats.  It will be in the news every single day for the next year.  And the news won't be good.
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Offline Once-Ler

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2013, 04:58:23 AM »
I need a Ted Cruz emoticon that says "Did I do that?"  It could come in handy for the next couple of elections.
GayPatriot‏ @GayPatriot 1h1 hour ago

Today is the stupidest day of 2017. 

So far.

Offline AbaraXas

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2013, 12:26:13 PM »
Obamacare is going to be a nightmare for the Democrats.  It will be in the news every single day for the next year.  And the news won't be good.

Especially as people have to start writing those checks for co-pays and deductibles.

Offline Relic

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2013, 12:44:33 PM »
Obamacare is going to be a nightmare for the Democrats.  It will be in the news every single day for the next year.  And the news won't be good.

I suspect the stupid party will find a way to bail them out.

Paraphrasing Gourmet Dan:
The purpose of the Republican party is to serve as an ineffective alternative to the Democrats.

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2013, 12:51:02 PM »
Obamacare is going to be a nightmare for the Democrats.  It will be in the news every single day for the next year.  And the news won't be good.

I agree with you. It will be in the news constantly.

People either will stop caring or shrug and get on with life. Apparently you can get used to anything after long enough.
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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2013, 12:53:26 PM »
So all this good-news polling is based on the false premise that Republicans "supported the shutdown" when in fact it was the Democrats that repeatedly rejected the continuing resolutions that would have reopened government sooner.

Lies are all the Democrats have. This, and the war on women revival (see the VA governor's race), will be their roadmap to victory in 2014. Every single anti-Democrat (the Republican brand has been so tainted I feel compelled to use an alternative term) will have to work to expose the falsehoods, distortions and deceit being foisted upon the American people every single day.
"Just because people in positions of authority are stupid, it doesn’t mean you have to go along with it." —Arlo Guthrie

"In the excitement of great popular elections, deciding the policy of the country, and its vast patronage, frauds will be committed, if a chance is given for them." —Richard Henry Dana, Jr.

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2013, 01:10:51 PM »
Every single anti-Democrat (the Republican brand has been so tainted I feel compelled to use an alternative term) will have to work to expose the falsehoods, distortions and deceit being foisted upon the American people every single day.

Few will listen. Fewer still will have the energy to try.

Doesn't make it worth giving up, but it is something that needs be addressed. Have a look of the average age here, for example. Figure I am one of the younger ones, and I am pushing 60. There seems to be something about being conservative - you seem to need to be knocked around by life for a while to get your head straight. Not everyone, obviously, but a lot of people do.
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Offline Relic

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Re: Election prospects put a spring in the step of Senate Democrats
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2013, 01:12:09 PM »
Every single anti-Democrat (the Republican brand has been so tainted I feel compelled to use an alternative term) will have to work to expose the falsehoods, distortions and deceit being foisted upon the American people every single day.

When you have a complicit media, and a stupid public it's easy. The template was set with Fox News. If Fox reported water is wet and fire is hot, most people wouldn't believe it, because it came from Fox.

They've done a similar job on Republicans.


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