Author Topic: Nate Silver Pours Water On Media's Shutdown Narrative  (Read 528 times)

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Nate Silver Pours Water On Media's Shutdown Narrative
« on: October 12, 2013, 08:38:10 AM »
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2013/10/11/nate-silver-pours-water-on-media-shutdown-narrative

 by John Nolte 11 Oct 2013

Nate Silver, The New York Times' polling guru of 2012 (who has since moved to ESPN), has taken a look at the government shutdown polls (and history) and concluded that things don't look as bad for the GOP as the media would have you believe.

While Silver cautions that this could change over time, especially if the government doesn’t reopen or if America defaults on its debt; the media, he believes, are currently displaying irrational exuberance about how this might be a game-changer in favor of Democrats come the 2014 midterms.

Silver breaks his argument down into six parts, starting with a list of everything the media have previously and incorrectly hyped as game-changers: "Remember Syria? The fiscal cliff? Benghazi? The IRS scandal? The collapse of immigration reform?"

Silver also blows a hole in the "mythology" that the shutdown of '95  did as much damage to the GOP, or helped the Democrats and Clinton, as much as the media would have us believe.

Silver's most powerful argument, though, is that…

Quote
Even if the shutdown were to have a moderate political impact — and one that favored the Democrats in races for Congress — it might not be enough for them to regain control of the U.S. House. Instead, Democrats face two major headwinds as they seek to win back Congress.

First, there are extremely few swing districts — only one-half to one-third as many as when the last government shutdown occurred in 1996. …

In 2014, likewise, it will require not just a pretty good year for Democrats, but a wave election for them to regain the House. But wave elections in favor of the party that controls the White House are essentially unprecedented in midterm years. Instead, the president's party has almost always lost seats in the House — or at best gained a handful.


Silver concludes that there just hasn't been enough polling on the shutdown yet, and that Obama not being on the 2014  ballot is a plus for Republicans. If, however, Obama is polling in the thirties, that could hurt his Party in the 2014 midterms. Currently, the President is polling in the mid-to-low forties.

It should be noted that Silver published this article yesterday, so there is no way of knowing if his analysis includes the NBC poll that is making so much noise today, or if that poll would change any of his conclusions.

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Offline Oceander

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Re: Nate Silver Pours Water On Media's Shutdown Narrative
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2013, 08:39:45 AM »
Someone should notify certain other members on the forum to review this article.  No doubt they'll find plenty to criticize and will conclude that it's either a con-job or a hoax.

Offline olde north church

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Re: Nate Silver Pours Water On Media's Shutdown Narrative
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2013, 09:21:00 AM »
Someone should notify certain other members on the forum to review this article.  No doubt they'll find plenty to criticize and will conclude that it's either a con-job or a hoax.

All the while being concerned about a 401K.   :tongue2:


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Why?  Well, because I'm a bastard, that's why.

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Nate Silver Pours Water On Media's Shutdown Narrative
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2013, 03:15:00 PM »
Someone should notify certain other members on the forum to review this article.  No doubt they'll find plenty to criticize and will conclude that it's either a con-job or a hoax.

I was just going to say.. paging, paging..........
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline rangerrebew

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Re: Nate Silver Pours Water On Media's Shutdown Narrative
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2013, 06:39:22 PM »
the NBC poll that is making so much noise today,

Do you mean the one where democrats were represented something like 40% commiecrats to 25% republicans?  The one where a major part of the sample were government employees?  Far be it for me to suggest, though, this poll was rigged to make things look positive for democrats, unnerve (more than they normally are, republicans and rinos) in negotiation, and give the media something to keep cutting in to the republicans.  NBC is an "honorable" organization. :tongue2:
Abraham Lincoln:

There is no grievance that is a fit object of redress by mob law.
--January 27, 1838 Lyceum Address

Don't interfere with anything in the Constitution. That must be maintained, for it is the only safeguard of our liberties. And not to Democrats alone do I make this appeal, but to all who love these
great and true principles.
--August 27, 1856 Speech at Kalamazoo, Michigan

Let us then turn this government back into the channel in which the framers of the Constitution originally placed it.
--July 10, 1858 Speech at Chicago

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Nate Silver Pours Water On Media's Shutdown Narrative
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2013, 07:26:09 PM »
Do you mean the one where democrats were represented something like 40% commiecrats to 25% republicans?  The one where a major part of the sample were government employees?  Far be it for me to suggest, though, this poll was rigged to make things look positive for democrats, unnerve (more than they normally are, republicans and rinos) in negotiation, and give the media something to keep cutting in to the republicans.  NBC is an "honorable" organization. :tongue2:

 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
“The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.” G Washington July 2, 1776


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