Author Topic: IPCC on Antarctic sea ice: the IPCC 'models forecast less ice, and they cannot explain why there is , instead, more ice  (Read 528 times)

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Offline rangerrebew

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IPCC On Antarctic Sea Ice: The IPCC ‘models forecast less ice, and they cannot explain why there is, instead, more ice’



By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotOctober 1, 2013 8:08 AM

IPCC On Antarctic Sea Ice

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-on-antarctic-sea-ice/

By Paul Homewood
 

 
 The newly released IPCC Fifth Assessment Report has a few things to say about the increasing Antarctic sea ice extent:-
 
 1) Available evidence precludes us from making robust statements about overall changes in Antarctic sea ice and their causes.
 
 2)There has been a small but significant increase in total ice extent of 1.5% per decade between 1979 and 2012, and a greater increase in ice area, indicating an increase in concentration.
 

3) The observed upward trend in Antarctic sea ice extent is found to be inconsistent with internal variability based on the residuals from a linear trend fitted to the observations, though this approach could underestimate multi-decadal variability.
 

4) The CMIP5 simulations [i.e climate models] on average simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice extent though Turner et al. (2013) find that approximately 10% of CMIP5 simulations exhibit an increasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent larger than observed over the 1979-2005 period. However, Antarctic sea ice extent variability appears on average to be too large in the CMIP5 models (Turner et al., 2013; Zunz et al., 2013)

 
 In other words, their models forecast less ice, and they cannot explain why there is instead more ice. The fact that area is increasing even faster would suggest that the increase in extent is not due to winds spreading the ice out.
 

Perhaps some of the naive SkS denizens might care to take note, before they embarrass themselves again with their wacky theories.
 
 
 
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter04.pdf

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Joseph Story

Offline Oceander

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In other words, their models forecast less ice, and they cannot explain why there is instead more ice. The fact that area is increasing even faster would suggest that the increase in extent is not due to winds spreading the ice out.

That's a good summation of the gobbeldy-gook and mumbo-jumbo used in those four points to obfuscate what is, in fact, a confession that (a) they've been wrong, and (b) they can't explain why they've been wrong all along.

Offline rangerrebew

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I can explain it.  It is cold. :whistle:
Constitutions are not designed for metaphysical or logical subtleties, for niceties of expression, for critical propriety, for elaborate shades of meaning, or for the exercise of philosophical acuteness or judicial research. They are instruments of a practical nature, founded on the common business of human life, adapted to common wants, designed for common use, and fitted for common understandings.

Joseph Story


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