Author Topic: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding) UPDATE: It's a dud  (Read 1819 times)

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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« Last Edit: October 09, 2013, 06:03:42 PM by jmyrlefuller »
Quote of the month:
"Drumbeats remind me of orchestras, and orchestras remind me of... orchestration." (David Paterson)

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2013, 09:00:15 PM »
Keep in mind... typical weather forecasts only have any degree of accuracy out to about 10 days. The models start getting off timing after about 5 days and spurious events (such as storms and fronts that never happen) start showing up at 11.

Now, granted, there are a couple of experimental models that are being developed that could realistically push the forecast range out to 14 days, maybe slightly longer. However, the idea that weather can be predicted, with any semblance of accuracy, beyond that-- especially a whopping month and a half-- is a fool's notion. Even the most accurate long-range model in use by the U.S. government, the state-of-the-art CFSv2, only advertises viable accuracy out to 17 days.
Quote of the month:
"Drumbeats remind me of orchestras, and orchestras remind me of... orchestration." (David Paterson)

Offline Oceander

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2013, 09:37:04 PM »
This is just nuts.  And quite honestly, I have the Accuweather doodad on my android smartphone and it is routinely wrong.

Offline alicewonders

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2013, 09:37:26 PM »
But...but...what about the Farmer's Almanacs?
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2013, 10:04:02 PM »
This is just nuts.  And quite honestly, I have the Accuweather doodad on my android smartphone and it is routinely wrong.
They really are one of the worst.

When I was in college for meteorology, we had to do short-term forecasting as part of the class (I've been forecasting ever since, although now I'm working on the longer ranges-- as I said, I can get out to 10 now and I'm hoping the newest models can help me get decent results up to 14 days out now). Every so often I would compare the results I got with places like the National Weather Service, Weather Channel and Accuweather. The NWS and Weather Channel were OK... I won't say good, and certainly not as good as a live meteorologist, but OK. (Pretty much any forecast you get from a site like that is generated by machine and tweaked by meteorologists. The NWS uses meteorologists at each bureau to do their tweaking, while the commercial services all do it from one team at one location.) Accuweather, on the other hand, wasn't even in the ballpark a lot of the time.

There's a reason I, and so many others, call the place Inaccuweather.
Quote of the month:
"Drumbeats remind me of orchestras, and orchestras remind me of... orchestration." (David Paterson)

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2013, 10:09:02 PM »
But...but...what about the Farmer's Almanacs?
Fun reading-- I usually get one or two each year, and the first one of the season (Harris's) came in just a few days ago-- but the forecasts tend to not be particularly accurate. I think someone did a study on it showing that it's either not really any more accurate than random chance or too hopelessly vague to draw any real conclusions.

Still, the astronomy, tide tables and calendar features make it a worthwhile read, and some of them have very good articles.
Quote of the month:
"Drumbeats remind me of orchestras, and orchestras remind me of... orchestration." (David Paterson)

Offline alicewonders

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2013, 10:32:56 PM »
Thanks for the info, I find the almanacs are right about half the time but I enjoy reading them too.   888catlicking
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We told you Trump would win - bigly!

Online DCPatriot

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2013, 07:03:54 AM »
LOL!.....it appears that computer processors have gotten so fast that they can input gazillions of previously saved weather patterns to the point that their so-called predictions are at least better than playing the lottery.
"It aint what you don't know that kills you.  It's what you know that aint so!" ...Theodore Sturgeon

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: AccuWeather unveils 45-day forecast (I wish I were kidding)
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2013, 06:55:17 PM »
Quote of the month:
"Drumbeats remind me of orchestras, and orchestras remind me of... orchestration." (David Paterson)

Offline jmyrlefuller

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UPDATE: It's a dud.
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2013, 06:02:58 PM »
Quote of the month:
"Drumbeats remind me of orchestras, and orchestras remind me of... orchestration." (David Paterson)

Offline Oceander

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I have AccuWeather's widget on my phone and I have to say that it's really unreliable; I prefer the Weather channel app.


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