Author Topic: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames  (Read 730 times)

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Offline Rapunzel

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Offline Oceander

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2013, 10:41:26 PM »

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2013, 11:10:08 PM »
I'm just waiting for the next major European war.  It's coming; the only questions are when and who will be on the opposing sides this time.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

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Offline Oceander

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2013, 11:10:54 PM »
I'm just waiting for the next major European war.  It's coming; the only questions are when and who will be on the opposing sides this time.

And what will set it off.

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2013, 11:16:08 PM »
And what will set it off.

Something asinine most likely.

I remember one study I read in college predicted that it would be basically the old Soviet bloc and Germany against the France, Spain, and Italy initially.  The small countries would try to stay neutral (good luck with that) and Britain would try to stay out of it but would get drawn in anyway.  This study also said the US would quickly withdraw from Europe because by that point, we would not have the military to fight with and all we could do is pull back to the US and prepare for the defense of North America should Britain and France lose.  Their predicted cause was that it would be something economic.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

"The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections." -Lord Acton

Offline Oceander

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2013, 11:22:48 PM »
Something asinine most likely.

I remember one study I read in college predicted that it would be basically the old Soviet bloc and Germany against the France, Spain, and Italy initially.  The small countries would try to stay neutral (good luck with that) and Britain would try to stay out of it but would get drawn in anyway.  This study also said the US would quickly withdraw from Europe because by that point, we would not have the military to fight with and all we could do is pull back to the US and prepare for the defense of North America should Britain and France lose.  Their predicted cause was that it would be something economic.

However, what appears to be lacking, in comparison to WWI and WWII, is any real emotional incentives that would drive one country to try and annex the territory of another.  Right now it seems that a fight between the Continentals would basically consist of closed borders and harsh, punitive economic laws, like high tariffs, rather than the armies of one country marching into other countries in order to conquer them.

Of course, if the radical muslim population of one or more of the Continental countries were to take control of that country, then I can clearly see how another war of conquest would start.

Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2013, 11:36:17 PM »
However, what appears to be lacking, in comparison to WWI and WWII, is any real emotional incentives that would drive one country to try and annex the territory of another.  Right now it seems that a fight between the Continentals would basically consist of closed borders and harsh, punitive economic laws, like high tariffs, rather than the armies of one country marching into other countries in order to conquer them.

Of course, if the radical muslim population of one or more of the Continental countries were to take control of that country, then I can clearly see how another war of conquest would start.

True, we're not set like we were before the first two world wars.  The prediction was a total economic collapse by one side/region who would eventually decide that it's best to try a military solution, or die fighting.  Muslims aren't close enough yet to being anywhere near a majority so while they can cause trouble, they can take over in the short term.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

"The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections." -Lord Acton

Offline mountaineer

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2013, 08:09:09 AM »
Quote
However, what appears to be lacking, in comparison to WWI and WWII, is any real emotional incentives that would drive one country to try and annex the territory of another.  Right now it seems that a fight between the Continentals would basically consist of closed borders and harsh, punitive economic laws, like high tariffs, rather than the armies of one country marching into other countries in order to conquer them.
It strikes me that we don't see the nationalism of years past. European countries fly the blue EU flag alongside their tired old national flags (a jarring site to see on national holidays, as Mr. M and I saw in France). The remaining nationalists, e.g., Serbs, are vilified for their irrational and fanatical devotion to homeland.

Quote
This study also said the US would quickly withdraw from Europe because by that point, we would not have the military to fight with and all we could do is pull back to the US and prepare for the defense of North America should Britain and France lose.
A likely thing, given Obama's "management" of our military.
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Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2013, 06:42:16 PM »
A likely thing, given Obama's "management" of our military.

And the study I'm quoting from dates back to the late 1990s.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

"The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections." -Lord Acton

Offline EC

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Re: France is dancing on a volcano, and Europe may go up in flames
« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2013, 08:29:43 PM »
Something asinine most likely.

I remember one study I read in college predicted that it would be basically the old Soviet bloc and Germany against the France, Spain, and Italy initially.  The small countries would try to stay neutral (good luck with that) and Britain would try to stay out of it but would get drawn in anyway.  This study also said the US would quickly withdraw from Europe because by that point, we would not have the military to fight with and all we could do is pull back to the US and prepare for the defense of North America should Britain and France lose.  Their predicted cause was that it would be something economic.

I'd suggest energy. The old Soviet Bloc exports natural gas to most of Europe. If they turn off the pipelines it would be chaos, with only Norway and the UK being able to come close to meeting internal demand from their own resources.

Germany could land either side of the fence, but I would bet they would come down on the Soviet side.
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