The Briefing Room

General Category => Economy/Business => Topic started by: catfish1957 on September 30, 2020, 10:17:51 AM

Title: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: catfish1957 on September 30, 2020, 10:17:51 AM
(https://theliberal.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/trumpbiden2.jpg)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-advantage-heres-what-market-analysts-are-saying-about-a-chaotic-presidential-debate-11601465869?mod=home-page (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-advantage-heres-what-market-analysts-are-saying-about-a-chaotic-presidential-debate-11601465869?mod=home-page)

<snipit>

The day after what many are calling a chaotic and contentious presidential debate, analysts are nose to the grindstone, trying to figure out what, if anything, it means for markets and the coming election.

Equities  are dropping, as investors reeled from the back-and-forth arguing between incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic contender Joe Biden, which never managed a proper debate on the key topics.
Here’s a round up of what analysts on Wall Street and elsewhere are saying about that exchange:

“Perhaps the only point worth mentioning is that the debate may have increased expectations for a contested election result. International investors have been prepared to entertain some extreme views on this topic (just as they entertained extreme views on the future of the euro area in the past). Given the importance of international investors to U.S. markets, this may add volatility around the election.” — Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“On the margin, Trump’s more assertive stance, and Biden’s measured responses, may have exacerbated some voter concerns over Biden’s age. That said, we believe the debate probably did not shift enough voters to change the current base case of Biden winning in November.” — Team of Nomura economists led by Lewis Alexander.

“If last night’s Presidential debate was supposed to inform and educate, all it did was merely confirm the credibility deficit in U.S. politics, as President Trump, and Democrat nominee Joe Biden engaged in what can only be described as a fact-free name-calling contest… the fractious nature of last night’s so-called debate raises questions as to the outcome of next month’s election, as well as the prospect of an imminent stimulus deal.” — Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

“In a raucous debate that was indeed full of shouting, it is unclear that either President Trump or Vice President Biden changed the trajectory of the election last night…There was very little substance in the debate and almost no new information proffered. The story of the debate will likely surround the president’s consistent interruption, though Mr. Biden was not able to stay above the fray and traded insults at times with Mr. Trump. Acrimony ruled.” — Deutsche Bank strategists Jim Reid, Craig Nicol and Henry Allen.
====================================================================================

Should be an interesting few days in the market, as it absorbs last night's results.  IMO, (1) Trump needed a deeper knock out blow to Slow Joe, and (2) Biden whether he cheated with an ear piece or not, far far exceeded expectations by not drooling over himself in a 90 minute period.  In any case, I hope Chris Wallace is catching hell this morning at work for making this a debacle and basically helpin Biden to the presidency. 

Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: mountaineer on September 30, 2020, 10:26:22 AM
I just checked the Mr. and Mrs. Mountaineer account on our brokerage's website. All told, between equities, mutual funds, etc., we're up 0.31% thus far today.
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: catfish1957 on September 30, 2020, 10:33:55 AM
I just checked the Mr. and Mrs. Mountaineer account on our brokerage's website. All told, between equities, mutual funds, etc., we're up 0.31% thus far today.

Markets are flat today.  I think the one thing that may have calmed the markets down a bit, was Biden (prob. lying though) rebuke of the Green New Deal.

The rubes don't realize that there is probably some gentlemen's agreement between Biden and Bernie that has Biden going center wise for the election, and then lowering the boom
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: skeeter on September 30, 2020, 10:45:45 AM
Markets are flat today.  I think the one thing that may have calmed the markets down a bit, was Biden (prob. lying though) rebuke of the Green New Deal.

The rubes don't realize that there is probably some gentlemen's agreement between Biden and Bernie that has Biden going center wise for the election, and then lowering the boom
It may also mean the markets weren't so appalled by Trump's 'bullying' as some might have assumed.
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: Cyber Liberty on September 30, 2020, 10:46:52 AM
Markets are flat today.  I think the one thing that may have calmed the markets down a bit, was Biden (prob. lying though) rebuke of the Green New Deal.

The rubes don't realize that there is probably some gentlemen's agreement between Biden and Bernie that has Biden going center wise for the election, and then lowering the boom

At the moment, the DJIA is up almost 400.  I would not call that "flat." :shrug:
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: mountaineer on September 30, 2020, 10:50:02 AM
All of our equities but one are up.
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: catfish1957 on September 30, 2020, 10:58:58 AM
At the moment, the DJIA is up almost 400.  I would not call that "flat." :shrug:

Earlier I saw 200.  And this era, any movement + or - 1% ...  I call flat.
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: mountaineer on September 30, 2020, 05:51:20 PM
Evening update: our portfolio today is now greater than it was a year ago, pre-Covid. There was a little dip in March, then it more than recovered. DJIA was up 2.02% today; NASDAQ up 0.74%. Gold was down $12.30 to $1,890.90.
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: mountaineer on October 02, 2020, 08:07:13 AM
October 1, 2020  8:08 PM
Updated 10 minutes ago
Wall Street set for dive after Trump gets coronavirus
By Tom Arnold, Elizabeth Howcroft


LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street was set for a heavy tumble on Friday as news that U.S. President Donald Trump and his wife had tested positive for coronavirus just four weeks before U.S. elections sent investors into safer gold, Treasuries and the yen. ...

Markets will have other news to digest with monthly U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT, but Trump’s exposure could cause a new wave of market volatility if it looks like disrupting in any way the presidential election, which is just 33 days away. ... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/risk-aversion-sets-in-after-trump-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN26N009 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/risk-aversion-sets-in-after-trump-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN26N009)
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: Gefn on October 02, 2020, 08:57:38 AM
@Cyber Liberty

Of all the financial terms used the one I dislike is “dead cat bounce”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce
Title: Re: Biden advantage? Here’s what market analysts are saying about a chaotic presidential debate
Post by: Cyber Liberty on October 02, 2020, 09:32:53 AM
@Cyber Liberty

Of all the financial terms used the one I dislike is “dead cat bounce”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

Dittos....