Post reply

Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 30 days.
Unless you're sure you want to reply, please consider starting a new topic.
Name:
Email:
Subject:
Message icon:

shortcuts: hit alt+s to submit/post or alt+p to preview


Topic Summary

Posted by: Oceander
« on: November 05, 2012, 09:35:52 PM »

Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46

Thanks!  It's really great having folks on board who can parse polls and statistics.
Posted by: SoftwareEngineer
« on: November 05, 2012, 07:35:39 PM »

Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46
Posted by: Oceander
« on: November 05, 2012, 07:31:45 PM »

How was Rassmussen's record in calling the 2010 elections?  I seem to recall someone posting here recently that he wasn't that accurate with those elections.  That matters because this election is very similar to 2010 in its dynamics and the relative levels of enthusiasm, is the mirror image of 2008 - when the momentum and enthusiasm were on Obama's side and the apathy and lethargy on McCain's side - and bears not much similarity to 2004.
Posted by: tuwood
« on: November 05, 2012, 07:25:41 PM »

On Hannity's radio show, Rass said that final turnout would be Democrat +3.

and of course 100% of Democrats will vote for O.  NOT

I still think it will be a R+ turnout and there will be a significant D defection percentage.
Posted by: Atomic Cow
« on: November 05, 2012, 06:48:48 PM »

On Hannity's radio show, Rass said that final turnout would be Democrat +3.
Posted by: tuwood
« on: November 05, 2012, 05:43:03 PM »

Posted by: Allegra
« on: November 05, 2012, 05:37:59 PM »

:beer:  so do I!!!!!!

Me too.  I NEVER watch MSNBC, but if things go as the signs are all indicating, I'm going to watch.   :smokin:
Posted by: Queen
« on: November 05, 2012, 05:30:01 PM »

hoping he's right again this year.

He's not. Mitt will win by a larger margin than that.
Posted by: Rapunzel
« on: November 05, 2012, 05:09:47 PM »

Ever since he joined with Doug Schoen......
Posted by: truth_seeker
« on: November 05, 2012, 05:06:39 PM »

Playing devil's advocate, what has Rasmussen done lately?

He missed 2010 by quite a lot.
Posted by: flowers
« on: November 05, 2012, 04:37:20 PM »

Posted by: Millee
« on: November 05, 2012, 04:27:46 PM »

Posted by: Rapunzel
« on: November 05, 2012, 04:18:40 PM »

Re: Scott Walker recall...

Remember how the pundits were settled in for a "long, long evening"?  Then the numbers began to roll in from Milwaukee and Waukesha counties... and it was called within an hour or so of the polls closing.  It was a "shocker".

Yup.. and Rass said Walker was going to lose.
Posted by: Lando Lincoln
« on: November 05, 2012, 04:16:10 PM »

Re: Scott Walker recall...

Remember how the pundits were settled in for a "long, long evening"?  Then the numbers began to roll in from Milwaukee and Waukesha counties... and it was called within an hour or so of the polls closing.  It was a "shocker".
Posted by: Scottftlc
« on: November 05, 2012, 04:11:13 PM »

Starting with Tingles.  :woohoo:

Yeah, that thrill will run right up through his leg and give him a colonoscopy.