The Briefing Room
General Category => Politics/Government => Topic started by: mystery-ak on October 03, 2019, 02:14:23 pm
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.
The latest figures include 33% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 44% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11.
more
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct03?fbclid=IwAR0yqpJtPy52AKvNOqhkLt3PCGi4PRISTsQQPi4HaKWB5c-RdwN-Xc5Q0_A (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct03?fbclid=IwAR0yqpJtPy52AKvNOqhkLt3PCGi4PRISTsQQPi4HaKWB5c-RdwN-Xc5Q0_A)
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Rasmussen is supposed to be one of the more reliable pollsters and one that Trump often cites, in tweets. Last week, prior to the phone call stories, he was at 53% approval, with this poll. The impeachment talk has been a fundraising catalyst, but he has dropped 6 points, during that time, in this particular poll. That seems curious.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history (http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history)
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Rasmussen is supposed to be one of the more reliable pollsters and one that Trump often cites, in tweets. Last week, prior to the phone call stories, he was at 53% approval, with this poll. The impeachment talk has been a fundraising catalyst, but he has dropped 6 points, during that time, in this particular poll. That seems curious.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history (http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history)
Your post is a terrible misreading of how tracking polls work. Tracking polls fluctuate around a mean, generally, and the Rasmussen has been consistent in showing Trump at around 48-50% for months. It has daily fluctuations from that mean ranging from 45-53 but these are little more than statistical noise. Asserting that the President has dropped 6% since impeachment began may be technically correct, but it is deeply disingenuous in that the tracking poll in context shows that the President's favorability has not really moved at all.
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Your post is a terrible misreading of how tracking polls work.
Keep that in mind, when Trump selectively tweets Rasmussen numbers when they're at 50% or higher.
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Keep that in mind, when Trump selectively tweets Rasmussen numbers when they're at 50% or higher.
I always keep that in mind. So should you when YOU make an unsupportable assertion...saying "Well, he did it too" doesn't really strengthen your argument.
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I always keep that in mind. So should you when YOU make an unsupportable assertion...saying "Well, he did it too" doesn't really strengthen your argument.
What argument? All I did was point out the fact he had dropped, during the time of a bad news cycle, while donations have gone up. That just seems odd. I don’t know if the two are related, but I happen to think that most people that bother responding to polls are politically engaged and informed on current issues. I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
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What argument? All I did was point out the fact he had dropped, during the time of a bad news cycle, while donations have gone up. That just seems odd. I don’t know if the two are related, but I happen to think that most people that bother responding to polls are politically engaged and informed on current issues. I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
Your argument that his approval was actually dropping...as opposed to mere statistical noise showing a normal fluctuation in a daily tracking poll. Tying it in with a "bad news cycle" was clearly an argument to link the two things...or to suggest a linkage. As for ruling things out, virtually nothing should be ruled out as we are entering a twilight zone of political activity...but misreading polls only adds to the chaos. Now, if Trump were to drop below the margin of error from that 47-50 range...hitting 42-43% and holding there for some time...than you would have a genuine measurable effect. As of today, there is no statistical change in the President's approval rating.
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Your argument that his approval was actually dropping...as opposed to mere statistical noise showing a normal fluctuation in a daily tracking poll. Tying it in with a "bad news cycle" was clearly an argument to link the two things...or to suggest a linkage. As for ruling things out, virtually nothing should be ruled out as we are entering a twilight zone of political activity...but misreading polls only adds to the chaos. Now, if Trump were to drop below the margin of error from that 47-50 range...hitting 42-43% and holding there for some time...than you would have a genuine measurable effect. As of today, there is no statistical change in the President's approval rating.
The same pollster has reflected similar ‘noise,’ as you call it, during the family separation and government shutdown news cycles. I suppose that’s just coincidence.
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The same pollster has reflected similar ‘noise,’ as you call it, during the family separation and government shutdown news cycles. I suppose that’s just coincidence.
If the polls were accurate Donald Trump wouldn't have won.
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The same pollster has reflected similar ‘noise,’ as you call it, during the family separation and government shutdown news cycles. I suppose that’s just coincidence.
Not sure what you mean by "reflected. Please cite specific examples in which Rasmussen ignored the explicit meaning of tracking polls and made the same statistically silly argument you've made. Or, alternately, just acknowledge that you interpreted the Rasmussen Poll in a way that is patently incorrect. We all make mistakes from time to time, best to just do a mea culpa and move forward with newly gained wisdom.
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Not sure what you mean by "reflected. Please cite specific examples in which Rasmussen ignored the explicit meaning of tracking polls and made the same statistically silly argument you've made. Or, alternately, just acknowledge that you interpreted the Rasmussen Poll in a way that is patently incorrect. We all make mistakes from time to time, best to just do a mea culpa and move forward with newly gained wisdom.
Conversely, you could try looking at the data, over the appropriate timelines, from the Rasmussen poll, instead of being a condescending pr*ck.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history (http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history)
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Conversely, you could try looking at the data, over the appropriate timelines, from the Rasmussen poll, instead of being a condescending bleep.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history (http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history)
That's precisely what I did...with context of how a tracking poll works and what its results actually mean.
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That's precisely what I did...with context of how a tracking poll works and what its results actually mean.
Funny, because there was a point when the government shutdown was directly tied to the drop in approval rating, by Rasmussen.
Please cite specific examples in which Rasmussen ignored the explicit meaning of tracking polls and made the same statistically silly argument you've made.
A recent poll released by Rasmussen Reports showed that President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted amid the partial government shutdown.
The Rasmussen Reports’ daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Monday posted a 43% approval rating for the president, his lowest since January 2018.
It notes: “The president’s overall job approval rating has been falling since his Oval Office address last week calling for enhanced border security and the building of a wall to help stop illegal immigration.â€
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2019/01/15/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-his-approval-rating-has-plummeted-amid-shutdown/23642935/ (https://www.aol.com/article/news/2019/01/15/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-his-approval-rating-has-plummeted-amid-shutdown/23642935/)
There’s your cite, you pompous ass.
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If the polls were accurate Donald Trump wouldn't have won.
:amen:
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Funny, because there was a point when the government shutdown was directly tied to the drop in approval rating, by Rasmussen.
A recent poll released by Rasmussen Reports showed that President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted amid the partial government shutdown.
The Rasmussen Reports’ daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Monday posted a 43% approval rating for the president, his lowest since January 2018.
It notes: “The president’s overall job approval rating has been falling since his Oval Office address last week calling for enhanced border security and the building of a wall to help stop illegal immigration.â€
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2019/01/15/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-his-approval-rating-has-plummeted-amid-shutdown/23642935/ (https://www.aol.com/article/news/2019/01/15/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-his-approval-rating-has-plummeted-amid-shutdown/23642935/)
There’s your cite, you pompous ass.
Rasmussen notes consistent shifts in approval over time...or may not a shorter change without attributing greater meaning to it...not a singular or brief shift. So try again, jackass.
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43% today
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/)
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And if President Trump was focused on his election he would be pointing out the flaws of Elizabeth Warren and her extremist Socialist agenda. Because the polls show that Warren in the last month (several sets of data points) is polling ahead of Trump.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html)
and Trump VS Biden
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html)
Trump has slight lead 4 over Biden over the previous set of data which showed Biden with 1.
Why not attack these candidates on their failed policies?
Why not concentrate on the positive changes that Trump is making to benefit the American people. Like making migrants prove they can provide their own medical insurance and not depend on taxpayers to support their health? Why not be focusing on the things that Americans need to know. Like Warren wants everyone to have universal healthcare. That she wants all financial debt to be payed by American taxpayers. That Biden wants to take people's guns...…….well maybe Trump does too?
Instead we are mired in investigations and impeachment proceedings. And I think much of it has to do with Pride and thinking sympathy is the winner.