The Briefing Room
General Category => Elections 2020 => Topic started by: mystery-ak on September 10, 2020, 03:36:05 pm
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Nate Silver Electoral Map — You Decide
Posted by Kane on September 10, 2020 4:44 am
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(https://i2.wp.com/www.citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/nate-silver-map.jpg?resize=768%2C575&ssl=1)
Nate Silver was the only Lefty pollster who gave a Trump chance in 2016.
NATE SILVER — “If you take the polls at face value right now—with Biden gaining/holding steady in AZ, WI, MI but losing ground in PA & FL, then Arizona is the tipping-point state right now, which could lead to the map shown here. This is a winning map for Biden, but it’s precarious.â€
https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/nate-silver-electoral-map-you-make-the-call/ (https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/nate-silver-electoral-map-you-make-the-call/)
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Looking at Silver's map, if the battle is to be won, the victory will come from either Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
All the other states will probably come in as he predicts (including AZ)...
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Looking at Silver's map, if the battle is to be won, the victory will come from either Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
Or New Hampshire.
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I sure hope I didn't move to state that's about to go blue... I just escaped California...
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I sure hope I didn't move to state that's about to go blue... I just escaped California...
Fishrr insisted Cindy McCain would be appointed Senator to replace her worthless husband, so there's that.
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Map will look more like McGovern's epic win. 333cleo
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Biden-Harris Have a Big Problem in Pennsylvania
Kamala Harris on the ticket alone will cost Democrats the state.
by Paul Kengor
September 4, 2020Mercer County, Pennsylvania - Attending the annual Civil War reenactment here this past weekend, I half-expected a mob of crazed progressives to show up shouting “RACISTS!!!†at the mock Confederate soldiers. But this was clearly a Trump crowd, as evidenced by the guy next to me wearing a red-white-and-blue t-shirt heralding “GOD GUNS TRUMP.†He was hardly atypical.
Also evident throughout this territory are, frankly, an extraordinary number of Trump-Pence signs — far more, it seems, than even in November 2016, when Trump beat Hillary in Pennsylvania. On my rural street alone, nearly every other house has a Trump sign or flag. Take a left onto the main road and there are massive signs on buildings, like this one: “BUY AMERICAN HIRE AMERICAN VOTE TRUMP.†Think about that. Thirty years ago, a comparable sign here in the Rustbelt would have urged: “BUY AMERICAN HIRE AMERICAN VOTE DEMOCRAT.†Not anymore.
“There’s no question, I’m in favor of banning fracking,†Harris stated to loud liberal applause in a CNN presidential townhall on Climate Change in September 2019. In the state of Pennsylvania, that’s an outrageous position for a politician.
Most striking, on my way to the office, just blocks from the old, abandoned Bessemer plant, I pass two flags (thus far) that insist, “TRUMP 2020: NO MORE BULLS**T.â€
Two months ago, Donald Trump’s numbers in Pennsylvania didn’t look good. Now, given this sudden grassroots groundswell, I’m convinced Biden is the one in trouble. ...
https://spectator.org/biden-harris-have-a-big-problem-in-pennsylvania/
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Looking at Silver's map, if the battle is to be won, the victory will come from either Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
All the other states will probably come in as he predicts (including AZ)...
I think that Minn could flip this year..
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20 states going with Biden? NO WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Trump takes 40 states with the Electoral College.
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Interesting map. So, wild scenario: it goes exactly that way, except Nebraska gives all its electors to Trump. It goes to the House (and Senate for VP), and we could end up with President Biden and Vice President Pence (if the GOP holds the Senate and the 'Rats flip enough House delegations) or even President Trump and Vice President Harris (if the 'Rats take the Senate and the GOP keep at least 26 House delgations).
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Looking at Silver's map, if the battle is to be won, the victory will come from either Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
All the other states will probably come in as he predicts (including AZ)...
Don't lock Pennsylvania into the Trump camp yet.
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20 states going with Biden? NO WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Trump takes 40 states with the Electoral College.
Which 13 states do you think Trump is going to take away from Biden?
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I think that Minn could flip this year..
So could North Carolina and Florida. They're are as likely to flip as Minnesota is.
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Biden-Harris Have a Big Problem in Pennsylvania
Kamala Harris on the ticket alone will cost Democrats the state.
by Paul Kengor
September 4, 2020https://spectator.org/biden-harris-have-a-big-problem-in-pennsylvania/
Democrats don't take Pennsylvania. They take Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and their collar counties by large margins and the rest of the state comes along. The fact that Mercer County has a lot of Trump signs isn't going to change that.
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So could North Carolina and Florida. They're are as likely to flip as Minnesota is.
In Florida, Biden does have the senile vote going his way.
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Trump scores gains in Miami-Dade, hurting Biden’s odds in Florida
In a recent poll, President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 17 percentage points in Miami-Dade County. He lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 in the same county by 30 percentage points.
By David Smiley
Published Sep. 8
Four years after getting trounced in Miami-Dade County by Hillary Clinton, President Donald Trump has increased his odds of victory in his must-win home state on Nov. 3 by improving his standing in Florida’s most populous county, according to a poll by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald.
The poll of 500 likely Miami-Dade voters, released Tuesday, found Trump far behind Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden 38 percent to 55 percent in Miami-Dade, where Democrats typically need to run up the score in order to compete in statewide races.
That 17-point deficit is well outside the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error. But Trump doesn’t need to win Miami-Dade. He just needs to do better in the Democratic-leaning county to offset possible losses in other parts of Florida. ... Tampa Bay Times (https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/09/08/trump-scores-gains-in-miami-dade-hurting-bidens-odds-in-florida/)
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Trump scores gains in Miami-Dade, hurting Biden’s odds in Florida
In a recent poll, President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 17 percentage points in Miami-Dade County. He lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 in the same county by 30 percentage points.
By David Smiley
Published Sep. 8
Four years after getting trounced in Miami-Dade County by Hillary Clinton, President Donald Trump has increased his odds of victory in his must-win home state on Nov. 3 by improving his standing in Florida’s most populous county, according to a poll by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald.
The poll of 500 likely Miami-Dade voters, released Tuesday, found Trump far behind Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden 38 percent to 55 percent in Miami-Dade, where Democrats typically need to run up the score in order to compete in statewide races.
That 17-point deficit is well outside the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error. But Trump doesn’t need to win Miami-Dade. He just needs to do better in the Democratic-leaning county to offset possible losses in other parts of Florida. ... Tampa Bay Times (https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/09/08/trump-scores-gains-in-miami-dade-hurting-bidens-odds-in-florida/)
That is key right there.