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Author Topic: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)  (Read 5921 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« on: November 05, 2012, 04:01:35 PM »
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Offline Scottftlc

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 04:05:36 PM »
I wanna see heads explode live on MSNBC tomorrow night.
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Offline tuwood

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2012, 04:06:34 PM »
hoping he's right again this year.
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Offline Millee

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 04:08:46 PM »
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Offline Scottftlc

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 04:11:13 PM »
Quote from: Millee on November 05, 2012, 04:08:46 PM
Starting with Tingles.  :woohoo:

Yeah, that thrill will run right up through his leg and give him a colonoscopy.
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Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 04:16:10 PM »
Re: Scott Walker recall...

Remember how the pundits were settled in for a "long, long evening"?  Then the numbers began to roll in from Milwaukee and Waukesha counties... and it was called within an hour or so of the polls closing.  It was a "shocker".
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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2012, 04:18:40 PM »
Quote from: Lando Lincoln on November 05, 2012, 04:16:10 PM
Re: Scott Walker recall...

Remember how the pundits were settled in for a "long, long evening"?  Then the numbers began to roll in from Milwaukee and Waukesha counties... and it was called within an hour or so of the polls closing.  It was a "shocker".

Yup.. and Rass said Walker was going to lose.
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Offline Millee

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 04:27:46 PM »
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Offline flowers

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 04:37:20 PM »
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 05:06:39 PM »
Playing devil's advocate, what has Rasmussen done lately?

He missed 2010 by quite a lot.
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Offline Rapunzel

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 05:09:47 PM »
Ever since he joined with Doug Schoen......
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Offline Queen

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 05:30:01 PM »
Quote from: tuwood on November 05, 2012, 04:06:34 PM
hoping he's right again this year.

He's not. Mitt will win by a larger margin than that.
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Offline Allegra

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 05:37:59 PM »
Quote from: coldone on November 05, 2012, 04:37:20 PM
:beer:  so do I!!!!!!

Me too.  I NEVER watch MSNBC, but if things go as the signs are all indicating, I'm going to watch.   :smokin:
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Offline tuwood

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 05:43:03 PM »
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Offline Atomic Cow

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2012, 06:48:48 PM »
On Hannity's radio show, Rass said that final turnout would be Democrat +3.
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Offline tuwood

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2012, 07:25:41 PM »
Quote from: Atomic Cow on November 05, 2012, 06:48:48 PM
On Hannity's radio show, Rass said that final turnout would be Democrat +3.

and of course 100% of Democrats will vote for O.  NOT

I still think it will be a R+ turnout and there will be a significant D defection percentage.
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Oceander

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2012, 07:31:45 PM »
How was Rassmussen's record in calling the 2010 elections?  I seem to recall someone posting here recently that he wasn't that accurate with those elections.  That matters because this election is very similar to 2010 in its dynamics and the relative levels of enthusiasm, is the mirror image of 2008 - when the momentum and enthusiasm were on Obama's side and the apathy and lethargy on McCain's side - and bears not much similarity to 2004.
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Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2012, 07:35:39 PM »
Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46
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Oceander

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Re: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2012, 09:35:52 PM »
Quote from: SoftwareEngineer on November 05, 2012, 07:35:39 PM
Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46

Thanks!  It's really great having folks on board who can parse polls and statistics.
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