Author Topic: If Rasmussen is Correct (and he has been in the last two Presidential elections)  (Read 5532 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Support the USO
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide
STFU Rudy

Offline Scottftlc

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I wanna see heads explode live on MSNBC tomorrow night.
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Offline tuwood

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hoping he's right again this year.

Offline Millee

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Offline Scottftlc

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Starting with Tingles.  :woohoo:

Yeah, that thrill will run right up through his leg and give him a colonoscopy.
Well, George Lewis told the Englishman, the Italian and the Jew
You can't open your mind, boys, to every conceivable point of view

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Online Lando Lincoln

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Re: Scott Walker recall...

Remember how the pundits were settled in for a "long, long evening"?  Then the numbers began to roll in from Milwaukee and Waukesha counties... and it was called within an hour or so of the polls closing.  It was a "shocker".
For the progressive, there is very little to love about the United States. Washington, Jefferson, Madison? A bunch of rotten slaveholders, hypocrites, and cowards even when their hearts were in the right places. The Declaration of Independence? A manifesto for the propertied classes. The Constitution? An artifact of sexism and white supremacy. The sacrifices in the great wars of the 20th century? Feeding the poor and the disenfranchised into the meat-grinder of imperialism. The gifts of Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, Astor? Blood money from self-aggrandizing robber barons. Nat Rev

Offline Rapunzel

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Re: Scott Walker recall...

Remember how the pundits were settled in for a "long, long evening"?  Then the numbers began to roll in from Milwaukee and Waukesha counties... and it was called within an hour or so of the polls closing.  It was a "shocker".

Yup.. and Rass said Walker was going to lose.
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Offline flowers

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Online truth_seeker

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Playing devil's advocate, what has Rasmussen done lately?

He missed 2010 by quite a lot.
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline Rapunzel

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Ever since he joined with Doug Schoen......
�The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves.� G Washington July 2, 1776

Offline Queen

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hoping he's right again this year.

He's not. Mitt will win by a larger margin than that.

Offline Allegra

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:beer:  so do I!!!!!!

Me too.  I NEVER watch MSNBC, but if things go as the signs are all indicating, I'm going to watch.   :smokin:
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Offline tuwood

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Offline Atomic Cow

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On Hannity's radio show, Rass said that final turnout would be Democrat +3.
"...And these atomic bombs which science burst upon the world that night were strange, even to the men who used them."  H. G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1914

"The one pervading evil of democracy is the tyranny of the majority, or rather of that party, not always the majority, that succeeds, by force or fraud, in carrying elections." -Lord Acton

Offline tuwood

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On Hannity's radio show, Rass said that final turnout would be Democrat +3.

and of course 100% of Democrats will vote for O.  NOT

I still think it will be a R+ turnout and there will be a significant D defection percentage.

Oceander

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How was Rassmussen's record in calling the 2010 elections?  I seem to recall someone posting here recently that he wasn't that accurate with those elections.  That matters because this election is very similar to 2010 in its dynamics and the relative levels of enthusiasm, is the mirror image of 2008 - when the momentum and enthusiasm were on Obama's side and the apathy and lethargy on McCain's side - and bears not much similarity to 2004.

Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46

Oceander

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Rasmussen's final turnout model is D/R/I of 39/37/24 or a D+2

Here is what I posted in another thread this morning

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46

Thanks!  It's really great having folks on board who can parse polls and statistics.


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