Author Topic: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily  (Read 59889 times)

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Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #400 on: November 05, 2012, 09:40:28 AM »

Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #401 on: November 05, 2012, 09:43:02 AM »


I am Repub4Bush on FR '02

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #402 on: November 05, 2012, 09:45:34 AM »
Crossing my fingers SE....and praying
Support the USO
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #403 on: November 05, 2012, 12:49:55 PM »
When we fail to lock up criminals, society becomes a prison. When we don’t institutionalize the insane, then society becomes the insane asylum. When we don’t stop foreign gangs and terrorists from entering our country, then we wake up to realize that we are living in El Salvador, Mexico, Pakistan or Iraq.
-Daniel Greenfield

Offline Irish Eyes

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #404 on: November 05, 2012, 02:41:31 PM »

Oceander

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #405 on: November 05, 2012, 05:41:41 PM »
Have been doing that for weeks.. This has been VERY bad on the nerves.

It's been very bad on the work productivity, too.

Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #406 on: November 06, 2012, 09:28:25 AM »
FINAL DAILY COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER (w/RAS INTERNALS)

The final numbers are in. R:49 O:48. This still includes the good SAT numbers for the President. They did not fall off yet

Let us break down the numbers:

  • True number should have been R:50 O:48 but ONCE AGAIN the "Lean Romney" number is rounded down to zero
  • Only 87% of Republicans are shown voting for the Governor. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans will vote for the President. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Right Track/Wrong Track Nationally is 44/53. Seems too high
  • RT/WT for Asians and Hispanics is 47/50. Seems too high
  • Governor leads Independents by 14
  • The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Approval Index is -22% for Independents. GOOD!
    Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24

    Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (87*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 49.35
    Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (12*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 47.88

    Now, as I have said in my previous commentaries, I find the Republican voter number for the Governor (87%) unbelievable. Every other survey (including liberal ones) find the number to be near 95%. So, let us run the SAME numbers (above) with just one change i.e. assume that 95% of Republicans vote for the Governor

    Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (95*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 52.31
    Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (05*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 45.29

    So final tally: R:52 O:45
    If you throw 1% to "Other" and split the other 2% between the two then your final tally becomes:

    R:53 O:46

    FINAL THOUGHTS: In less than 12 hours it will become clear how right or wrong I was. Unlike Nate Silver, I do not claim powers of soothsaying or divinity. I am just an Engineer and my data is only as good as the input (Rasmussen's numbers) and my analysis (the best I can do)

    I truly appreciate the help everyone has given and I raise my toast in anticipation of a great victory by the Governor

    NOTE: Many numbers used here are internal and not available on the link above

Offline the19thhole

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #407 on: November 06, 2012, 05:47:31 PM »
...TAKE A LOOK AT CARTER VS. REAGAN THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION


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