Author Topic: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily  (Read 58770 times)

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Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #400 on: November 05, 2012, 09:40:28 AM »

Offline R4 TrumPence

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #401 on: November 05, 2012, 09:43:02 AM »


I am Repub4Bush on FR '02

Online mystery-ak

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #402 on: November 05, 2012, 09:45:34 AM »
Crossing my fingers SE....and praying
Support the USO
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #403 on: November 05, 2012, 12:49:55 PM »
Socialism is like the monster in "It" - every thirty years or so it returns to devour the young.

Offline Irish Eyes

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #404 on: November 05, 2012, 02:41:31 PM »

Oceander

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #405 on: November 05, 2012, 05:41:41 PM »
Have been doing that for weeks.. This has been VERY bad on the nerves.

It's been very bad on the work productivity, too.

Offline SoftwareEngineer

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #406 on: November 06, 2012, 09:28:25 AM »
FINAL DAILY COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER (w/RAS INTERNALS)

The final numbers are in. R:49 O:48. This still includes the good SAT numbers for the President. They did not fall off yet

Let us break down the numbers:

  • True number should have been R:50 O:48 but ONCE AGAIN the "Lean Romney" number is rounded down to zero
  • Only 87% of Republicans are shown voting for the Governor. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans will vote for the President. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Right Track/Wrong Track Nationally is 44/53. Seems too high
  • RT/WT for Asians and Hispanics is 47/50. Seems too high
  • Governor leads Independents by 14
  • The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE
  • Approval Index is -22% for Independents. GOOD!
    Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24

    Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (87*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 49.35
    Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (12*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 47.88

    Now, as I have said in my previous commentaries, I find the Republican voter number for the Governor (87%) unbelievable. Every other survey (including liberal ones) find the number to be near 95%. So, let us run the SAME numbers (above) with just one change i.e. assume that 95% of Republicans vote for the Governor

    Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (95*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 52.31
    Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (05*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 45.29

    So final tally: R:52 O:45
    If you throw 1% to "Other" and split the other 2% between the two then your final tally becomes:

    R:53 O:46

    FINAL THOUGHTS: In less than 12 hours it will become clear how right or wrong I was. Unlike Nate Silver, I do not claim powers of soothsaying or divinity. I am just an Engineer and my data is only as good as the input (Rasmussen's numbers) and my analysis (the best I can do)

    I truly appreciate the help everyone has given and I raise my toast in anticipation of a great victory by the Governor

    NOTE: Many numbers used here are internal and not available on the link above

Offline the19thhole

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Re: Rasmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Poll....updates daily
« Reply #407 on: November 06, 2012, 05:47:31 PM »
...TAKE A LOOK AT CARTER VS. REAGAN THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION


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