Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast

[rangerrebew]

English - by Pierre L. Gosselin

Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast Model Flops

By P Gosselin on 15. November 2020
 

Last year Germany’s Potsdam Institute (PIK) boasted that it had a superior El Niño one-year forecasting model, claiming 80% certainty. Today, a year later, its forecast emerges totally wrong and the prestigious institute is left humiliated.

Hat-tip: Snowfan

In 2019, Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute (PIK) boasted that it had a superior El Niño forecasting model, claiming one year in advance and with 80% certainty, there would be an El Niño event late in 2020 (upper curve is just an El Niño illustration). But the PIK model forecast flopped totally. The opposite has in fact emerged. Chart source: BOM (with additions).

One year ago, together with researchers of the Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan in Israel, Germany’s alarmist yet highly regarded Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) boldly declared in a press release there would “probably be another ‘El Niño’ by the end of 2020.”

PIK even boasted forecast model superiority

https://notrickszone.com/#sthash.uBc77k0X.dyCnhsLQ.dpbs

[SZonian]

In order to be "humiliated" or "embarrassed", shame or a conscience is required...
I doubt many, if any of these climate doomsayers have such a thing.

[GtHawk]

In order to be "humiliated" or "embarrassed", shame or a conscience is required...
I doubt many, if any of these climate doomsayers have such a thing.

This is what happens when one of the cooks adds too much to the data