At what point do we just say, "Screw this" and then deny them any credibility from the get-go? After watching dozen or so of these things I've come to know about what you are saying about the numbers always getting tighter to protect the "reputation" of the pollsters, so shouldn't it be assumed they're never correct when it matters?
Suits me fine. I never have paid em any mind... That they get it right, or get it close is not the point, because by the time they actually do start getting it right or getting it close, it's too late to pay them mind anyway. One of the benefits of voting on the record - you can neatly avoid all the stump speeches, debates, and all the fooferaw that go with em.
In the study of people they're fun though... Seeing folks strutting around over the numbers like they're gospel truth... Folks experiencing masturbatory glee over a point or two in the right direction when the margin of error is likely three or four points... Folks crushed by a poll coming out 5 points different from the last one... That people get so verklempt and jerked around by something so obviously easy to manipulate is a amazement to me. I will never tire of watching it happen.
And I'd remind that in '16 most polls of the Electoral College were giving it to Clinton in the later evening on Election night. The EC predictions never got it right.
Right, but in the data they were close. the bias was in the lean. In most of the states that were too close to call, the bias, and therefore the lean, went to Clinton. The difference looks big on the blue/red board, but the data supporting that was sometimes a matter of minutia.
