The Impresario President Will Get an Encore
It is objectively unlikely that so accomplished a president and so incomparably more forceful and capable a candidate will be turned out of office.
By Conrad Black
October 19, 2020
For anyone with any perspective on American elections, it is clear that the polls do not entitle us to predict with any confidence the outcome of the current campaign. Many of the polls included in the average of polls on aggregator sites are really just the products of Democratic Party front organizations, such as Vox, Politico, Quinnipiac, Monmouth, and others whose chief function is to facilitate the Democratic media locker room cry that they’ve already won and the counting of the votes is practically superfluous. Open the beer kegs! The Trump tyranny is already over.
Trafalgar, the only poll that showed Trump winning four years ago, shows him winning again this year. And the next most accurate of polls that covered the 2016 campaign and are doing so again is Rasmussen, which has fluctuated and briefly joined the ranks of the Biden victory celebration squad two weeks ago but now has Trump’s approval rating back at 48 percent.
All polls that put the question receive the answer that people think the majority of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and all polls of Trump voters indicate that they decline to discuss politics candidly with strangers.
There are constant arcane debates between pollsters about the accuracy of the echelon of people whom they poll. Most polls are of “registered voters†and this cohort, generally, is unlikely to bear much resemblance to the functioning electorate. And many polls consist of multiple questions posed on the telephone at inconvenient hours and are responded to only by underactive or unusually politically zealous people.
There is ample evidence that Donald Trump, in both his elections, has brought out large numbers of people who have not been in the habit of voting since Reagan, and that he is pulling large numbers of working-class Democrats into his camp.
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