Author Topic: Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong  (Read 45 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong
« on: October 18, 2020, 10:08:51 AM »
October 18, 2020
Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong
By Andrea Widburg

When people ask me to predict whether Trump or Biden will win the election, I like to say that I don’t predict elections; I just worry about them. However, as a worrier, I’m always on the lookout for signs that will ease my worries. With the election only 17 days away, there are a surprising number of signs that Biden’s allegedly spectacular polling lead is illusory.

Before beginning this post about identifying positive trends, it’s important to remember that the polls – both state-by-state and national – are still showing Biden in the lead. Here’s a screengrab from Real Clear Polls with that information:



That’s the bad news. Here is the more cheering information:

1. The Biden campaign, which used the Wuhan virus as an excuse not to have any ground game, is suddenly sending volunteers to do door-to-door canvassing in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada. You don’t do that if you’re confident you’ll win.

2. Obama is hitting the campaign trail for Biden. That’s a sure sign of insecurity.

3. Biden’s campaign manager admitted that the pro-Biden polls are inflated.

4. Since the revelations about Hunter Biden hit the news, an IBD/TIPP poll shows that Biden's support dropped by slightly over two percentage points, while Trump’s support rose by almost .6 percent.

5. There’s an interesting trend in voting by mail (“VBM”), a concept that Democrats were confident would benefit them. Unexpected numbers of Republicans are using VBM. The initial VBM numbers hugely favored Democrats and undoubtedly will continue to favor them. However, the number of Democrat VBM numbers is stagnant, while the number of Republican VBMs continues to rise.

6. Larry O’Connor has an interesting theory about why the polls are completely wrong, even though they’re now tapping the more reliable “likely voter” metric (as opposed to the “registered voter” metric). You should read his article, but here’s the gist:

A “likely voter” is one who’s an experienced voter. That is, he knows where votes are cast, has voted before, and votes often.” In this election, though, Trump’s support comes from unlikely voters, whom the polls ignore.

Ronna McDaniel’s data shows that up to 36% of people who make the effort to attend a Trump rally did not vote in 2016, and that substantial percentages have never voted:

more
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/looking_on_the_bright_side_15_reasons_the_polls_may_be_wrong.html
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2020, 10:29:22 AM »


3. Biden’s campaign manager admitted that the pro-Biden polls are inflated.

Which IMO, is pretty much all of them, wiht possible exception of Rasmussen.


5. There’s an interesting trend in voting by mail (“VBM”), a concept that Democrats were confident would benefit them. Unexpected numbers of Republicans are using VBM. The initial VBM numbers hugely favored Democrats and undoubtedly will continue to favor them. However, the number of Democrat VBM numbers is stagnant, while the number of Republican VBMs continues to rise.

We did VBM for precautionary reasons.  Many of the elderly (who many are conservative) will do the same.




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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2020, 11:13:45 AM »


We plan on voting early this time (in person), and we've never done that before.
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