Author Topic: Polls showing Biden beating Trump don't add up  (Read 45 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Polls showing Biden beating Trump don't add up
« on: October 15, 2020, 05:08:40 PM »
 Polls showing Biden beating Trump don't add up
Dwight Weidman, Columnist 5 hrs ago

When Fake News does not work, the media turns to Fake Polls. Just as in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, most of the media polls are giving Joe Biden a double-digit lead on President Donald Trump. Last week, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News Survey gave Biden a 14-point lead over the President. Sounds bad but remember that this very same poll gave Hillary Clinton the same big lead over Donald Trump exactly four years ago, and we all know what happened on election day.  The WSJ/NBC News poll is not alone. If you look at the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, it is solid blue, with most of the media polls giving Biden a double-digit lead.  Even the IBD/TIPP Poll has the race at a 8.5 point Biden advantage. There are other polls that show the race as being tight, such as the John Zogby Strategies-EMI Research Solutions Poll (Biden +2) and The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute survey (Trump +1). So, what is the difference?  The polls that show Biden when huge leads oversample Democrats from 6-10 points, for one thing, and a few still sample registered vs likely voters.  Of course, some do not release their “internals” or polling methodology. It almost seems like the same media outlets who produce fake news stories about President Trump are producing fake polls that show him losing, just like in 2016.  In the words of the late New York Yankees Hall of Famer Yogi Berra, “It's deja vu all over again”.

Most legitimate state polls tell a different story, and with our republican (small r) Electoral College system, it is the states that count. State polls by the Trafalgar Group, which is the most accurate state pollster in the 2016 and 2018 elections, are very favorable to the President, and put him on a similar track to victory as he experienced four years ago.  In 2016, Hillary Clinton ran up huge popular vote margins in places like New York and California but failed to capture critical swing states such as Michigan, Florida or Ohio.  It is pretty easy to track this data state by state, so, a couple of evenings ago, after getting tired of seeing photos of what all of my Facebook friends had for dinner, I did a little analysis of my own. Using the state polls I had at hand, along with a little common sense, I figured out that President Trump had an almost certain lock on 28 states with 258 electoral votes, leaving him just 12 shy of victory (270). That leaves 8 states that are now in the ‘tossup’ category with a total of 74 electoral votes. The President has at least a 50% or better chance of winning half of these, easily putting him over the top. I posted my analysis on Facebook, and lo and behold, a publication today came out with a similar analysis, showing the President with a ‘floor’ of 259 electoral votes, and a total of 22 possible combinations to get to the magic 270. On the other hand, the same analysis had Biden with a lock on just 191 electoral votes and only 6 possible combinations to get to 270.

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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Polls showing Biden beating Trump don't add up
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 07:57:44 PM »
You can disregard some of the polls all of the time.
You can disregard all of the polls some of the time.
But you can't disregard all of the polls all of the time...  (sigh)

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