Author Topic: Contra Media Poll Narrative, Trump Tracking Just Fine In Electoral College.. By Mollie Hemingway  (Read 1421 times)

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 Contra Media Poll Narrative, Trump Tracking Just Fine In Electoral College
October 14, 2020 By Mollie Hemingway

The media’s predictions of President Donald Trump’s certain defeat are about as confident this year as they were in 2016. You would think pundits’ embarrassing errors in 2016 would provoke some humility, but the narrative has been roughly the same for months: Joe Biden is going to win the election, likely in a landslide.

Charlie Cook declared the race “over” and Hillary Clinton the winner on the strength of a Fox News poll that was issued on October 13, 2016. Four years to the day later, he said Biden will win and that there’s a 40 percent chance he will win “big.” He also said, according to a press release that was just issued, that “if Biden is able to win the states Hillary Clinton lost, he could get enough electoral votes to win the election.” Not much to say about that insightful comment.

It is absolutely true that national polls would predict a clear Biden victory if the country elected presidents through the popular vote. He’s up 10 points in the Real Clear Politics poll average nationally. What is left out of the media’s discussions of whether this or the 2016 race is winnable for Trump is the Electoral College. And for that discussion, it’s worth a look at the states whose electoral votes will decide the election.

In 2016, Trump won by winning battleground states that few expected him to win. Right now, he’s polling slightly and relatively better in those states than he did four years ago.

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https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/14/contra-media-poll-narrative-trump-tracking-just-fine-in-electoral-college/
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Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Assuming the RCP national poll average is right, and historically it has been, even in 2016, I don't see Trump overcoming a 9 point biden lead in the national polls. Electoral college will not overcome that, i don't think.

Hope I'm wrong.

Offline Absalom

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[quote author=Weird Tolkienish Figurelink=topic=417110.msg2303442#msg2303442date.
Assuming the RCP national poll average is right, and historically it has been, even in 2016, I don't see Trump overcoming a 9 point Biden lead in the national polls. Electoral college will not overcome that.
Hope I'm wrong.
[/quote]
----------------------------
To your credit, you're a realist unlike the predictable suspects;
all of whom are oblivious to the cold fact that Trump lost the
popular vote in 2016 to Hilarity by 3,000,000 votes!!!

Offline skeeter

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[quote author=Weird Tolkienish Figurelink=topic=417110.msg2303442#msg2303442date.
Assuming the RCP national poll average is right, and historically it has been, even in 2016, I don't see Trump overcoming a 9 point Biden lead in the national polls. Electoral college will not overcome that.
Hope I'm wrong.

----------------------------
To your credit, you're a realist unlike the predictable suspects;
all of whom are oblivious to the cold fact that Trump lost the
popular vote in 2016 to Hilarity by 3,000,000 votes!!!

How many popular votes did she win by minus LA county, where there are 800k more registrants than there are registered voters) and the NY metroplex (where there are probably far more)?

Most conservatives are staunch supporters of the EC, its no surprise the predictable suspects on this conservative website would discount the importance of the popular vote in favor of the EC. In fact nutter leftists are the only ones I've heard bring up Hillary's popular vote advantage.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 11:03:33 pm by skeeter »

Offline Absalom

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How many popular votes did she win by minus LA county, where there are 800k more registrants than there are registered voters) and the NY metroplex (where there are probably far more)?
Most conservatives are staunch supporters of the EC, its no surprise the predictable suspects on this conservative website would discount the importance of the popular vote in favor of the EC. In fact nutter leftists are the only ones I've heard bring up Hillary's popular vote advantage.
---------------------------
Shortly, you and fellow Trump sycophants will be out of excuses.
Then the bitching and moaning on 11/3 will necessitate ear-plugs.


Offline skeeter

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---------------------------
Shortly, you and fellow Trump sycophants will be out of excuses.
Then the bitching and moaning on 11/3 will necessitate ear-plugs.
theres a way to avoid that, stop dropping in. You won’t have to hear our bitching, and we’d be spared your tedious & pretentious bloviating - a win win!

Offline XenaLee

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---------------------------
Shortly, you and fellow Trump sycophants will be out of excuses.
Then the bitching and moaning on 11/3 will necessitate ear-plugs.

No, actually.... you and your fellow Trump haters will be SOL out of taunts and will, instead...

be whining incessantly on 11/3.   Which will, I confess, be music to our ears.    Well... maybe not you, since you'll probably be like Biden.... hiden.   Hiding and hungover, no doubt. 
No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline XenaLee

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Assuming the RCP national poll average is right, and historically it has been, even in 2016, I don't see Trump overcoming a 9 point biden lead in the national polls. Electoral college will not overcome that, i don't think.

Hope I'm wrong.

Don't look now... but that "supposed" 9 point Biden lead has already shrunk to 5 and is still shrinking (or is that melting?  lolol)

Biden is T O A S T.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct14

No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline DCPatriot

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Assuming the RCP national poll average is right, and historically it has been, even in 2016, I don't see Trump overcoming a 9 point biden lead in the national polls. Electoral college will not overcome that, i don't think.

Hope I'm wrong.

Do we need to remind you that on Nov 8th, 2016...right up till 8pm, the nets were all uncorking champagne to celebrate Hillary's win?

And she was up a helluva lot more than 5 points.
"It aint what you don't know that kills you.  It's what you know that aint so!" ...Theodore Sturgeon

"Journalism is about covering the news.  With a pillow.  Until it stops moving."    - David Burge (Iowahawk)

"It was only a sunny smile, and little it cost in the giving, but like morning light it scattered the night and made the day worth living" F. Scott Fitzgerald

Offline DCPatriot

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[quote author=Weird Tolkienish Figurelink=topic=417110.msg2303442#msg2303442date.
Assuming the RCP national poll average is right, and historically it has been, even in 2016, I don't see Trump overcoming a 9 point Biden lead in the national polls. Electoral college will not overcome that.
Hope I'm wrong.

----------------------------
To your credit, you're a realist unlike the predictable suspects;
all of whom are oblivious to the cold fact that Trump lost the
popular vote in 2016 to Hilarity by 3,000,000 votes!!!

And you seem to be oblivious that a minimum of 25% of people attending Pres. Trump's rallies are registered Democrats who voted for her in 2016.
"It aint what you don't know that kills you.  It's what you know that aint so!" ...Theodore Sturgeon

"Journalism is about covering the news.  With a pillow.  Until it stops moving."    - David Burge (Iowahawk)

"It was only a sunny smile, and little it cost in the giving, but like morning light it scattered the night and made the day worth living" F. Scott Fitzgerald

Offline Absalom

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Don't look now... but that "supposed" 9 point Biden lead has already shrunk to 5 and is still shrinking (or is that melting? 
----------------------------
Biden's lead might shrink yet never the Trump lead; for a simple reason.
Trump a loser, has NEVER had a lead to shrink, since day one in the WH,
as 11/3 will affirm!!!!
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 04:24:10 am by Absalom »

Offline XenaLee

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----------------------------
Biden's lead might shrink yet never the Trump lead; for a simple reason.
Trump a loser, has NEVER had a lead, since day one in the WH,
as 11/3 will affirm!!!!

So.... are you gonna be 'here' on 11/3 to own those words?   
No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline skeeter

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So.... are you gonna be 'here' on 11/3 to own those words?
Hell no. Where’s the profit in that?

Offline XenaLee

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Hell no. Where’s the profit in that?

I think he is going to need someone to sit with him for a few days after Trump's win.   Just in case he feels self-destructive and depressed.     
No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline skeeter

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I think he is going to need someone to sit with him for a few days after Trump's win.   Just in case he feels self-destructive and depressed.   
Never a good idea to gloat before the game is over. I suspect if things don’t turn out the way he/she wants we’ll have seen the last of him/her.

Offline XenaLee

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Never a good idea to gloat before the game is over. I suspect if things don’t turn out the way he/she wants we’ll have seen the last of him/her.

Nah.   The usual behavior is to lick their wounds, and then return eventually and pretend like it never happened and like they never made that prediction...."who, me?".   

There's a guy named Peter somewhere that still owes me $20 from a bet on the 2000 election.   But I never expected him to really honor that bet...

him being a leftie.   :whistle:
No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline roamer_1

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I think he is going to need someone to sit with him for a few days after Trump's win.   Just in case he feels self-destructive and depressed.   

Oh stop. I don't currently think Tumpy is going to lose. But I also don't think he will win by much if he does win. I think it will likely be another squeaker. But if he wins by a landslide, or loses by a landslide won't matter a hill of beans to me. Why would you think it would be otherwise with @Absalom ?

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Assuming the RCP national poll average is right, and historically it has been, even in 2016, I don't see Trump overcoming a 9 point biden lead in the national polls. Electoral college will not overcome that, i don't think.

Hope I'm wrong.

The recent Rasmussen polls were a kick in the gut.

Earlier I have suggested focusing all RNC money to close GOP Senate races.  I think saving the senate is still within reach.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 04:43:08 am by catfish1957 »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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The media and liberal-socialists are tearing pages out of the same, exact playbook they used to defeat Donald Trump in 2016. 

Trump supporters were ridiculed, decimated, insulted and attacked in 2016.  And we were bludgeoned with poll after poll after poll "proving" Trump lost the election on the very day he announced his candidacy.

But we came out of the woodwork, the forests, down the mountains, across the rivers; first time voters, last time voters and went to the polls and voted for Donald Trump.  We're going to do it all over again in a few weeks, this time with more Blexits and more Latinos for Trump, more Women for Trump, and whoever made up those 56% better off than in 2016 -- even after the pandemic.

Every data metric is on our side, except one:  the polls.  All I have to say about this nonsense is:  ignore them, even when they tighten, and they will.  Just plan to vote and to vote wisely --- vote Republican.

In the meantime, my friendly advice as one who's fought this battle before:  Please, calm down.  Keep your eye on the prize and buckle up.    If Trump supporters had given in to panic in 2016 -- as they wanted us to --  BJ's bride would be coasting to reelection.   

 :beer: