Elon Musk says there is ‘a good chance you will die’ on Mars at virtual summit

[Elderberry]

FR24 News 9/3/2020

 Elon Musk aims to someday colonize Mars and, according to the billionaire, getting there is not the problem – surviving on the Red Planet will be difficult.

The SpaceX CEO shared the progress of the company’s Starship rocket at the Humans to Mars virtual summit, saying the craft was “making progress,” but also expressed concerns about building a base on the planet.

Musk suggested that building a self-sustaining city would be “difficult” and that there would be a number of dangers that settlers could face in developing the galactic civilization.

“I want to stress that this is a very difficult and dangerous and difficult thing,” Musk said.

“Not for the faint of heart. Good luck that you die. And it’s going to be tough, tough, but it’ll be pretty glorious if it works.

Elon Musk aims to someday colonize Mars and, according to the billionaire, getting there is not the problem – surviving on the Red Planet will be difficult. The SpaceX CEO shared the progress of the company’s Starship rocket at the Humans to Mars virtual summit, saying the craft was “making progress,” but also expressed concerns about building a base on the planet.

Musk has been keen to colonize Mars for years and hasn’t been shy about how he plans to get there.

The key to turning that dream into reality will be SpaceX’s massive Starship rocket, which has been tested and built at the company’s facilities in Boca Chica, Texas.

Based on its projections, SpaceX would need to build 1,000 rockets over a nine-year period to bring a million people to Mars.

“We’re making good progress,” Musk said, as CNBC reported.

Musk suggested that building a self-sustaining city would be “difficult” and that there would be a number of dangers that settlers could face in developing the galactic civilization. “I want to stress that this is a very difficult and dangerous and difficult thing,” Musk said. “Not for the faint of heart. Good luck that you die

More: https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/09/elon-musk-says-there-is-a-good-chance-you-will-die-on-mars-at-virtual-summit.html

[Smokin Joe]

We have already gone through some of the predicted (in science fiction) disasters that can befall space exploration, from launch pad explosions to transit accidents (Challenger) to vessels breaking up on reentry (Columbia). We may do all we can to anticipate and prevent these things, but sooner or later, there will be a failed colonization attempt, for whatever reason, likely a human factor.

 It happened in the colonization of The New World, there is no reason it won't happen on New Worlds, where the environment is even more hostile, perhaps in ways we don't fully understand yet.

[skeeter]

I’ll take that bet, Elon. $10,000,000 says I won’t.

Make the check out to my next of kin.

[Smokin Joe]

I don't get the fascination with Mars.  First off you are sticking 100 people in a stainless steel can for close to a year.  Can you imagine living in such a close space for a year?  Food...water....human waste.....ughhhh.  Elon needs to go first. 

Secondly... Mars has a very HARSH environment.  The atmosphere is 95% carbon dioxide.  In winter the average temperature is -80 degrees F.

So once you get to Mars you still have to live in a stainless steel can for the rest of your life.  Boy that sounds like fun.

Yet humans live in places where winter temps often get to -40, -50, -60 degrees F, just in North America. I have worked in temperatures from 122 above zero to -60. When it is that cold outside, yes, you stay in whatever warm place you can as much as possible, but dress for the elements (or lose skin or more to them). For most, life is a series of boxes, anyway. In cities, the apartment box, the cab/train/bus box, the office box...how many of those folks even look up at the sky (sure mark of a tourist in some places).
Yes, the box would be crowded, providing reason to find a way to make more livable space and incentive to scavenge or process the needed materials locally.

Adapt, improvise, overcome. It's how humans roll.

If we aren't outside our comfort zone, we are not making progress.

[EdinVA]

hmmm, wonder if Daniel Boone or Lewis and Clarke knew they could die?

[roamer_1]

Yet humans live in places where winter temps often get to -40, -50, -60 degrees F, just in North America. I have worked in temperatures from 122 above zero to -60. When it is that cold outside, yes, you stay in whatever warm place you can as much as possible, but dress for the elements (or lose skin or more to them). For most, life is a series of boxes, anyway. In cities, the apartment box, the cab/train/bus box, the office box...how many of those folks even look up at the sky (sure mark of a tourist in some places).
Yes, the box would be crowded, providing reason to find a way to make more livable space and incentive to scavenge or process the needed materials locally.

Adapt, improvise, overcome. It's how humans roll.

If we aren't outside our comfort zone, we are not making progress.

Still and all... Better to populate beneath the sea where we literally cannot live, but would have a chance in hell of rescue, to work things out, rather than far away Mars.

Seems a fevered dream to me.

[roamer_1]

I’ll take that bet, Elon. $10,000,000 says I won’t.

Make the check out to my next of kin.

Probably my grand children won't either. Nor theirs. Not in any appreciable way. Even a populated moon base is still well beyond our reach.

[rustynail]

I'd rather go to Mars alone in the spirit of the early New World trappers.

[skeeter]

Probably my grand children won't either. Nor theirs. Not in any appreciable way. Even a populated moon base is still well beyond our reach.

Im still waiting for the promises of the 60s to be fulfilled as depicted on my grade school lunchbox - jet packs, flying cars and space travel in first class comfort.

[roamer_1]

Im still waiting for the promises of the 60s to be fulfilled as depicted on my grade school lunchbox - jet packs, flying cars and space travel in first class comfort.

Well, we got flip phones (communicators) and tablets (tri-corder) and between the two, something approaching a universal translator in a babelfish kinda way... 

[roamer_1]

I'd rather go to Mars alone in the spirit of the early New World trappers.

Being a 'new world' trapper is still possible, and more conceivable. 

[skeeter]

Well, we got flip phones (communicators) and tablets (tri-corder) and between the two, something approaching a universal translator in a babelfish kinda way... 

But the most important of all - Hypospray - we don't have. Still get the damn needle.

[roamer_1]

But the most important of all - Hypospray - we don't have. Still get the damn needle.

YES. And doors with that pneumatic 'swish' sound...

[DB]

The problem with Mars is there is very little to sustain life there. No plants and no animals. We'll have to bring whatever it is that feeds us there.

[dfwgator]

"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make!"

[roamer_1]

"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make!"

 

[Smokin Joe]

Still and all... Better to populate beneath the sea where we literally cannot live, but would have a chance in hell of rescue, to work things out, rather than far away Mars.

Seems a fevered dream to me.

How far down you going? Bends, decompression, Rapture of the Deep, still can't breathe what's outside, and in the water, there are things that will eat you, dead or alive.
Mars isn't for the faint of heart, (well, neither option is) and I can see possible problems with the establishment of self-sustaining human populations off planet (or anywhere outside the immediate vicinity of any controlling power) which will be inevitable, but at least it would let us unworthy humans survive (if we can) if the final fit of aggression happens down here.
Mars has some resources, others would need to be brought in, either from the asteroid belt, or from other sources. The question is, and I think you know the answer, one of having a frontier which can credibly be describes as dangerous, requiring all the skills and determination of any on virtually any frontier, facing unique challenges, and permitting humans to rise above what has ever been the equivalent of video game slobs in their grandmother's basement. Whether you like Teddy Roosevelt or not, he went from a skinny Easterner to a respectable man in the rough breaks of Western ND, and frontiers seem to bring out the best in men that might not otherwise find that.  Frankly, now, that describes much of the human race in developed countries, relying more on skill with rule books and distortion and guile than their brains, skills, and divine providence against the forces of nature itself. That might just give humanity, or parts of it, new respect for Our Creator as well.
I gotta admit, if I had to choose, I'm just no longer very tolerant of high humidity, which might sound odd coming from someone who grew up where it was commonly 99%. A dry cold is easier to handle than damp.

[roamer_1]

How far down you going? Bends, decompression, Rapture of the Deep, still can't breathe what's outside, and in the water, there are things that will eat you, dead or alive.

Doesn't matter how deep. Functionally closed off from atmosphere, so you have to make your own... Deep enough and you are simulating low light or no light conditions, so you have to make your own... All of the conditions are substantially present to simulate off-world problems... Yet if failure (of a non-catastrophic type) occurs, rescue is a helluva lot closer. A functional underwater city, wholly self-contained, Is a better shot than Mars. Every bit the 'frontier', every bit as daunting, and right in the back yard.

Mars isn't for the faint of heart, (well, neither option is) and I can see possible problems with the establishment of self-sustaining human populations off planet (or anywhere outside the immediate vicinity of any controlling power) which will be inevitable, but at least it would let us unworthy humans survive (if we can) if the final fit of aggression happens down here.
Mars has some resources, others would need to be brought in, either from the asteroid belt, or from other sources. The question is, and I think you know the answer, one of having a frontier which can credibly be describes as dangerous, requiring all the skills and determination of any on virtually any frontier, facing unique challenges, and permitting humans to rise above what has ever been the equivalent of video game slobs in their grandmother's basement. Whether you like Teddy Roosevelt or not, he went from a skinny Easterner to a respectable man in the rough breaks of Western ND, and frontiers seem to bring out the best in men that might not otherwise find that.  Frankly, now, that describes much of the human race in developed countries, relying more on skill with rule books and distortion and guile than their brains, skills, and divine providence against the forces of nature itself. That might just give humanity, or parts of it, new respect for Our Creator as well.
I gotta admit, if I had to choose, I'm just no longer very tolerant of high humidity, which might sound odd coming from someone who grew up where it was commonly 99%. A dry cold is easier to handle than damp.

I get all that, but it ain't gonna happen any time soon. To develop the systems and subsystems and redundant systems necessary for a wholly self contained system capable of sustaining life for years between shipments, not to mention the propulsion, telemetry, comms, and all the rest necessary to support a supply line that long and that far away... Biting off way more than can be chewed.

[Smokin Joe]

Doesn't matter how deep. Functionally closed off from atmosphere, so you have to make your own... Deep enough and you are simulating low light or no light conditions, so you have to make your own... All of the conditions are substantially present to simulate off-world problems... Yet if failure (of a non-catastrophic type) occurs, rescue is a helluva lot closer. A functional underwater city, wholly self-contained, Is a better shot than Mars. Every bit the 'frontier', every bit as daunting, and right in the back yard.

I get all that, but it ain't gonna happen any time soon. To develop the systems and subsystems and redundant systems necessary for a wholly self contained system capable of sustaining life for years between shipments, not to mention the propulsion, telemetry, comms, and all the rest necessary to support a supply line that long and that far away... Biting off way more than can be chewed.

It's a little like the return to a Constitutional Republic. It can be done, with time, but a lot of people are going to have to get a real education (mechanical, electrical, technical, not just theoretical), and to do it will take time. We had the SeaLab program in the 60s and 70s, which largely worked on problems similar to those in space, but the country went all "spend it on the problems at home" so those grew instead of finding solutions for elsewhere. I would like to see the steps taken to lay the groundwork for a Mars and Lunar colony, but it will take time, mistakes will be made, and yes, people will die as a result. Same happened crossing the Atlantic to found colonies here.  When I was in my 20 and 30s I would have seriously considered going (either place, Mars or the Moon--IMHO we should have been at both by now, with settlements). Now, I don't think at my age the contribution (I could make) would be so much.

[sneakypete]

Yet humans live in places where winter temps often get to -40, -50, -60 degrees F, just in North America. I have worked in temperatures from 122 above zero to -60. When it is that cold outside, yes, you stay in whatever warm place you can as much as possible, but dress for the elements (or lose skin or more to them). For most, life is a series of boxes, anyway. In cities, the apartment box, the cab/train/bus box, the office box...how many of those folks even look up at the sky (sure mark of a tourist in some places).
Yes, the box would be crowded, providing reason to find a way to make more livable space and incentive to scavenge or process the needed materials locally.

Adapt, improvise, overcome. It's how humans roll.

If we aren't outside our comfort zone, we are not making progress.

@Smokin Joe

On a positive note,everyone you come into contact with on Mars is someone that agrees with you 100 percent on the importance of what you are doing,and is enthusiastic about the work every day.

You can't say that about life on Earth,can you?

Just make sure to avoid black strangers named "Marvin".

[sneakypete]

hmmm, wonder if Daniel Boone or Lewis and Clarke knew they could die?

@EdinVA

Not to mention Christopher Columbus and the sailors sailing with him.

[bigheadfred]

There is a good chance you will die on this planet, land, sea, or air.

[sneakypete]

There is a good chance you will die on this planet, land, sea, or air.

@bigheadfred

Better than good. An absolute certainty.

[roamer_1]

It's a little like the return to a Constitutional Republic. It can be done, with time, but a lot of people are going to have to get a real education (mechanical, electrical, technical, not just theoretical), and to do it will take time.

That's right - Decades, maybe centuries.

I would like to see the steps taken to lay the groundwork for a Mars and Lunar colony, but it will take time, mistakes will be made, and yes, people will die as a result. Same happened crossing the Atlantic to found colonies here. 

I have no problem with that. In fact I would encourage that also... But likely thinking it will take way longer than folks think. Like I said... Underwater cities, then moon base with serious traffic back and forth... Then maybe a station or two half way between... THEN MARS.

Some day, a native Martian may be born... But I will not see it. Nor likely my kids.

When I was in my 20 and 30s I would have seriously considered going (either place, Mars or the Moon--IMHO we should have been at both by now, with settlements). Now, I don't think at my age the contribution (I could make) would be so much.

I don't think I would have done that. Air is an important thing to me. And being where there ain't any except that manufactured by an unreliable machine... Yeah thanks, I'll pass. I don't mind bucking a stacked deck, but that's some truly long odds.

[DB]

My attitude towards it is be bold.

Go for the goal from the start. The engineering problems will be solved in time.