Which way will the polls miss this time?
By Chris Stirewalt | Fox News
WHICH WAY WILL THE POLLS MISS THIS TIME?
The 2020 electorate seems to have about the same digestive system as a goose, which is to say that it doesn’t seem to hold on to anything for very long.
The conventions have come and gone, and while there was some evidence of tightening even before the fortnight of folderol, the race seems pretty much back to where it was before. Challenger Joe Biden leads by 8.6 points nationally in an average of polls and has a decisive advantage in key swing states.
While Democrats certainly remain nervous about a repeat of 2016 in which President Trump stages a late upset of the frontrunner, Republican gloom remains the norm. As Trump spins himself into the ground throwing haymakers, most recently his urging for voters in North Carolina to try to cast two ballots, it doesn’t seem to reflect a great deal of confidence.
But here’s the thing: The polls will be wrong. The polls are always wrong. We just don’t know how much and in what direction.
In 2016 Trump outperformed his average in national polling by about 3 points while Democrat Hillary Clinton beat her polling average by about 1.4 points. That was akin to 2012, if a little better. On average, surveys underestimated support for then-President Obama by about 2 points and overstated support for challenger Mitt Romney by a little more than a point.
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