Stock-market traders brace for ‘dogfight’ as S&P 500 lingers below its 200-day moving average

[catfish1957]

<snipit>

A move above or below a 200-day moving average — a proxy for changes in an asset’s long-term trend — is always closely watched by traders, but the S&P 500’s long courtship with that key level, as it bounces back from its bear-market plunge, is becoming something of a fixation on Wall Street.

But even if stocks do make it back above the 200-day, history indicates that an extended run to the upside is far from guaranteed.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-traders-brace-for-dogfight-as-sp-500-lingers-below-its-200-day-moving-average-2020-05-22?mod=home-page
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The really main theme of the importance upcoming in these metrics, is more of a functon on now.....

How much of this recovery since March is long term speculative, versus true faith and sentiment that we are heading towards a sustainable recovery.  Another true indicator will be seeing how the really hard hit sectors like Travel, airlines, and others fare.

[Free Vulcan]

The dogfight has already been on. The S&P is just shy of 3000, and the market has been trying to break to it for almost a month, and particularly the last week.

Which IMO makes it ridiculously overbought already,  but I could see it going further up to 3200 give or take, which is unicorn levitation territory.

Scratch that, it was in unicorn levitation territory before the virus hit. Delusional is the proper word now.

They are banking that the economy is just going to bounce back. It's not. I don't think it's going to crater either, unless the governors maintain their stranglehold on things, which they are trying desperately to do till November.

Barring that, it should settle into a low growth trend for awhile, as should the S&P around 2500 if things were realistic.

Then we'll have to see if the virus comes back in force or not before which direction we go from there.