There is no way they'll all "Get their jobs back." Many will, while others will need to find or create new ones.
I think, first off, that the entire effect of the oil price crash hasn't been factored into this as a causative agent in the current joblessness picture. I'd love to be making what I was in Feb., but by April, that ship had already sailed, and COVID-19 didn't have diddley to do with that. That was the Russian/Saudi tiff and lifting of their production caps that brought oil from the $50s to the $20s, and that remodeled the CAPEX plans of not only the Oil Company I was doing consulting work for, but the rest as well. What would have been a 60% CAPEX increase turned into slashed drilling budgets and rigs going down like trees at Tunguska.
Then, to add icing to that cake, the COVID-19 impact compounded the problem that already existed. But because it only compounded an existing problem, removing the effects of the shutdown and surplus oil in the system will take time, so, nope, I'm not expecting to go back to work in that function for some time. Similarly, people who had jobs which are related to the oil patch or dependent on oil activity will not be getting some of their jobs back, welders, truckers, and a host of other service industries associated with drilling will not be reemployed unless and until activity picks up. Then there are the service industries which serve the service industry. Hotels, restaurants, RV sales, lease/rental vehicles, man camp staff, and just about every service those nice oilfield checks paid for, won't be recovering near to the health of even 2019.
Eventually, things will sort out, some will go back to what they were doing right away, some will not. By November, we'll be lucky for the economy to gain back 50% of its losses.
Still, showing definite signs of recovery could be a campaign plus even at 20-30%. Watch for the Dems to throw every monkey wrench they can into the works.
