Well you have one thing wrong right off the bat. It was the son that had the shotgun. The father was carrying a .357 magnum pistol.
So if you have that wrong is it all possible that your analysis is wrong? You see I watched the video a bunch of times and i did not see the young man throw any punches until after the first shot was fired (Off screen) You can tell by the description of his injuries and the the defendants description. They claimed that Ahmaud grabbed the shotgun by the barrel and the first shot injured his right hand. So think about this for a second: Why would you want to grab the barrel of a shotgun when another person is standing behind you with a pistol? Also if look closely at the video it appears that the person standing in the bed of the truck is also armed with a long weapon.
Thanks, I watched it last night a few times (late without volume, everyone is asleep)... and have slept since then. Seems I didn't invert weapons, just the father and son. Father was in the back of the truck.
I watched it again just now... and you are right, the first shot is fairly quick, but we don't know if it was just a accidental shot (due to pulling on the gun with finger on trigger) or not. The whole encounter took just seconds to occur as most do.
Younger son is already out of the truck so shooter saw him from a distance, and Arbery does see him and looks like he was gonna run right at him, but then turns (suddenly) to run around the truck but suddenly decides to attack instead. Perhaps he was going to attack before he veered, but decided the angle was not in his favor. We hear a shout (camera is not showing, don't know who shouted either) as Ahmaud goes around truck (sounded like 3 syllables, but inaudible in reality). Note the jogger was several feet in the grass at one point looking like he was gonna run into the yard away, but actually was positioning himself to make a lunge at a better angle, straight on. Next we see Arbery's feet at full run speeding rounding the truck. (19 seconds in video). First shot is heard at 20 seconds (and what has happened we can NOT see because the truck and door obscure the view except feet positions). There may of been a punch or not? What we can see is the younger shooter fellow was then in a defensive back up mode trying to put space between himself and Arbery. Perhaps he was taken somewhat surprised that Arbery rounded the corner of the truck so quickly. All we know is the shooter was not quite in front of the truck (jogger covered that whole distance himself) due to angle of camera shot but very close to the driver front of truck, but not in front. Part of the back up could be partially attributed to force of the lunge at him also and the struggle for the gun (again we can not see if a punch was thrown). The feet being squared forward (of the shooter) (One foot in front of the other) suggests holding his ground, maybe advancing, maybe bracing to meet a force coming at him. We see the jogger had made the decision not to attack at first (veering suddenly after running right at younger fellow at first then circling the truck), but decided to run around the front for a better angle (and some protection and limited view shielding). It also put some padding between the jogger and the person in the back of the truck who might attempt to help.
At 20 seconds in the video we see the shooter with his feet together at one point, and the jogger in full step advance mode. One can tell who had the force driving the direction. The fellow with the shotgun has backed up a few steps but has put his shoulder in stopping the advance (leaning into the oncoming force). Shotgun man lowers his center of gravity and stops the advance and seems to have regained possession of the gun. Still at 21-22 seconds in video. We lose camera for a bit at 22 seconds. But before we lose camera, we see the jogger pulling his right arm back for a punch (elbow is all we can see). It is 24 seconds and we hear the second shot. Smoke suggests it is directed towards the front of the truck area.
At 27 seconds both come back in view... reversed directions. Shooter is now having his back to the truck driver door. He has a wide stance to help keep control of the gun. Shooter also seems to still be backing away perhaps to keep control of the gun. At 28 seconds we see a good solid punch (again the right hand) connect to the shooter. Shooter as soon as punched seems to get an off balance shot off. Video is blurry and goes somewhat off center, but quickly recovers shot and focus. We are at 20 seconds. Shooter seems to know it was a fatal shot when jogger backs off 30 seconds), jogger loses will to fight (also seeming to want to run away, may be blinded) and after a few steps back resumes jogging forward and collapses headlong soon afterwards. We see as soon as the last shot goes off, the shooter does not take further defensive (or offensive) positioning. His gun was pointed down, he was backing up suggesting he did not want this deadly encounter and only wanted to not get killed himself. He backed away to let the fellow run away, getting out of his path.
I still don't see this as murder. Just a stop that went bad wrong and a stupid mistake of attacking an armed person. Coupled with not witnessing the thief, the bad judgement extends to both parties. The person filming, what did they see, did they relay they caught them in the act? Did they say he this looks just like the person I caught on film? I don't know, ain't read enough.
Just talking about something among friends... got something I didn't see, put it out there.